NHL Conn Smythe Award Picks & Best Bets

The Conn Smythe Award is one of the more exciting markets to bet on every NHL postseason and offers a good way to get some extra value on teams that you are high on if you can efficiently lock in skaters and/or goaltenders that will presumably need to lead the way for their team to go all the way. In this article I’ll outline my three favourite Conn Smythe picks for playoff MVP at the time of writing, in descending order from lowest to highest odds.

Connor McDavid +1500 (Play to +1400)

This is now the third straight postseason in which I’ve written this play up, and there is seemingly no reason whatsoever to change things up.

The Oilers are currently priced at +1200 to win the Stanley Cup, and while their regular season was not overly impressive, it seems reasonable to believe they will flip the switch and at least make it to the Western Conference Final. They ultimately lucked into a great Round 1 matchup versus the Anaheim Ducks, in which McDavid will presumably rack up a ton of points, before a winnable second round matchup versus the Vegas Golden Knights or Utah Mammoth.

Over the last three postseasons, McDavid has racked up 75 points in 47 games. He has by no means been a lesser player in the postseason, which is one reason that I’d personally love to see the game’s best player finally break through and win it all.

While the price disparity between the Oilers winning the Cup and McDavid winning the Conn Smythe is quite narrow, I’d actually still argue there is more value in backing McDavid to win the Conn Smythe, particularly with Leon Draisaitl set to miss the start of the most logical series to rack up points.

It’s also not impossible that McDavid could steal this award if the Oilers lose in the Eastern Conference Final to a drastically more well-rounded side, such as the Carolina Hurricanes or Tampa Bay Lightning, as was the case in 2024.

Sebastian Aho +2200 (Play to +2000)

We already outlined this pick in our Eastern Conference playoff preview, but I’d like to ensure it gets more time of day in our Conn Smythe-specific article.

I’m deeply rooted in a belief that the winner of the opening round matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and Ottawa Senators will, at a minimum, make the Eastern Conference Final. The Hurricanes have all the characteristics of a full-fledged Stanley Cup contender, even if failing to get past elite Florida Panthers sides seemingly means writing them off in the eyes of many observers.

While I don’t love that the Hurricanes face an underrated contender in Round 1, this price looks too long to me given that Aho should have a great chance of taking the award if Carolina is to finally break through.

Head coach Rod Brind’Amour has already hinted that both Frederik Andersen and Brandon Bussi will get starts this postseason. The Hurricanes allow very few low quality shots on goal, which should help prevent either goaltender from being viewed as the reason they ultimately win it all.

Jaccob Slavin’s play has tailed off to some extent this year, and it’s rare for defenders to win this award. Carolina’s blue-line is more so strong in terms of its overall depth, which makes me believe it’s unlikely Slavin would ultimately be dominant enough to win playoff MVP.

Seth Jarvis’s knack for scoring big goals is a concern, but on average, Aho should be able to at least match his production while being an elite two-way centre, which is generally more akin to winning the Conn Smythe.

Jake Sanderson +6000 (Play to +5500)

As we touched on above and in our Eastern Conference preview piece, the Senators have numerous important predictive indicators in common with the majority of recent Stanley Cup winning sides. Goaltending is a big question mark, but Linus Ullmark was excellent down the stretch, and the Senators appear to be highly formidable if they are to get league average goaltending.

We obviously don’t love the fact that more often than not the Sens will be sent home in Round 1. But that is a livable concern at this long price, given that if they find their way through this series, a deep run is entirely possible.

One of the key reasons Ottawa may be able to make some noise is that it holds a full-fledged elite number-one defender in Jake Sanderson. If Sanderson had played the entire season and/or been on a team with closer to a league average save percentage, his play likely would have gotten even more credit, and my expectation is a lot of observers will be surprised at how dominant he is this postseason in all areas of the game.

Sanderson finished with the 10th-highest expected goals above replacement rating this season per Evolving Hockey’s model. Numbers are far from everything, but watching Sanderson, it’s easy to see how greatly he impacts the game. He suppresses the rush effectively at his own blue-line, is capable of beating opposing forechecks well both with his mobility and play-making ability, and has high-end offensive upside.

You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets on the Action Network App!