In this article, we break down the NHL odds and our picks for each of the four Eastern Conference playoff series and detail strengths and weaknesses for each side.
Eastern Conference Playoff Odds
| Team | Odds to Win Round 1 Series | Odds to Win the Eastern Conference | Stanley Cup Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | -245 | +190 | +425 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | -180 | +200 | +475 |
| Buffalo Sabres | -185 | +700 | +1600 |
| Ottawa Senators | +150 | +750 | +1800 |
| Montreal Canadiens | +200 | +1200 | +2500 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | -155 | +1200 | +2500 |
| Boston Bruins | +155 | +2200 | +6000 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | +130 | +2200 | +6000 |
Series prices in brackets courtesy of bet365.
Montreal Canadiens (+200) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (-245)
I’m a wholehearted believer that the NHL should go back to the 1-8 seeding format. There is no denying that this presents as an excellent series, though, despite the fact that it’s not overly fair that a pair of teams that finished fifth and sixth in the entire NHL will face off in the first round of the playoffs.
The Lightning are, on paper, the most well-rounded team in the Eastern Conference, but online sportsbooks are wise to that fact given that they are priced as the second favourite to win the Stanley Cup.
Tampa Bay offers one of the very best lines in the NHL, with Nikita Kucherov skating alongside two excellent defensive forwards in Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli and a quality second line featuring proven playoff performers Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel.
Tampa Bay’s defensive core has rarely played at full-strength this season, but the depth of the unit has been tremendous. Darren Raddysh has emerged as a fringe number-one defender, while J.J. Moser has arguably been every bit as good when factoring in his overall impact. Victor Hedman’s level of play has fallen off, but head coach Jon Cooper should not need to rely too heavily on the veteran in this series based on the overall strength of Tampa’s blue line.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is a much more proven option than his counterpart Jakub Dobes, and does appear to offer an edge in goal, though Dobes was incredible down the stretch. Vasilevskiy holds a +24.7 GSAx rating and a .911 save percentage across 58 appearances this season.
The Canadiens hold a +27 goal differential compared to Tampa Bay’s mark of +61, have six fewer regulation wins, and ranked 19th in expected goal share this season.
While there is more to hockey than analytics, regular-season expected goal share has been a highly effective indicator in recent years. The last seven Stanley Cup-winning teams have averaged fifth place based in expected goal share per Evolving Hockey’s model, which is a pretty strong indicator of their effectiveness.
While the Canadiens are the weaker side in essentially every notable predictive statistic, it certainly has felt like they have something special going for the majority of this year.
Perhaps the greatest question mark entering this series will be whether or not Dobes is able to continue offering the same elite level of play he did down the stretch. In 16 starts following the Olympic break, Dobes holds a .923 save percentage and 2.49 GAA. In the same span, Vasilevskiy held an .899 save percentage; obviously Vasilevskiy’s career resume is drastically more convincing, but if Dobes were actually to outperform Vasilevskiy, it would go a long way to evening out this series.
Over the last 25 games the Lightning’s power play held a success rate of just 18.5%. It’s another area where the Lightning theoretically should be quite excellent, but were not as effective as their reputation suggests down the stretch.
Montreal’s defensive core is expected to be without Noah Dobson for at least the first few games of this series. Though Dobson is known for the occasional defensive lapse, his overall impact is still quite positive.
Best Bet for Lightning vs Canadiens: Canadiens +1.5 Games (-110)
Though the Lightning do hold some clear advantages in this series, the Canadiens have some strengths that should make them a tough out. Dobes was exceptional down the stretch, while Montreal’s top line was also stellar after Juraj Slafkovsky was added back into the mix.
The potential that the Lightning’s second line and overall depth will prove to be significant advantages in this series is a concern, but we love the way the Canadiens’ top skaters played down the stretch, and believe at -110, there is value backing Montreal to at least drag this series to a seventh game.
I’ll also be keeping my eyes out for long numbers on Montreal to win Game 1, based on my expectation that it will be in the +155 range.
As we will surely discuss in a number of our playoff pieces, excluding the two COVID postseasons, road teams hold an ROI of +6.6% dating back to the 2015-16 postseason and are 298-312 in that span. Road teams winning 48.9% of games over a 610-game sample suggests home-ice advantage is almost entirely a myth, especially once you consider that the stronger teams are on average the ones playing more home games.
Canadiens +1.5 series handicap
Ottawa Senators (+150) vs Carolina Hurricanes (-180)
Both teams in this series seem to be more formidable than is generally credited, and chances are we’ll be high on backing the eventual winner of this getting through the Penguins or Flyers in the next round.
Relative to how strong the Hurricanes actually are based on most predictive indicators and overall roster strength, they are getting very little love from mainstream NHL media as a legitimate contender.
Many observers are sour on Carolina based on the fact that this same core has failed to break through in years past. Should the fact that the Hurricanes could not get past an extremely dominant Florida Panthers side in recent Eastern Conference Finals really be viewed as that much of a negative, though, when in comparison to many of the teams out East that have not even been in the conversation in recent years?
Carolina’s greatest potential concern is the goaltending tandem of Brandon Bussi and Frederik Andersen, though not necessarily in this series, as the Senators’ crease is arguably even less convincing.
Bussi did have a solid campaign overall, playing to a +2.8 GSAx and .894 save percentage across 39 games played, but is obviously unproven on the big stage. Linus Ullmark played to a -12.8 GSAx and .891 save percentage across 49 appearances, but at his best, he is the most proven goaltender either side can offer in this series.
The Hurricanes finished with a +56 goal differential, 113 points, and essentially tied Colorado for the best expected goal share in the NHL (56.44%). They still play the same relentless game we have seen year over year under Rod Brind’Amour, but arguably have more legitimate offensive upside thanks to the continued development of Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov’s return to form after a severe knee injury, and the addition of Nikolaj Ehlers.
By no means did the Hurricanes get a good reward for finishing with 113 points, though. Over the last 30 games the Senators hold a record of 20-6-4 and have scored 3.60 goals per game while allowing only 2.37 goals against per game. The Senators rank second only to Carolina in xGF/60 in that span and allowed 22.55 shots against per 60, which is also second only to the Hurricanes.
Best Bet for Senators vs Hurricanes: Sebastian Aho +2200 to Win Conn Smythe, Andrei Svechnikov to Score Most Goals in Series +800
Our lean in terms of betting a side in this series would be with the Senators at +155, though as noted, we’re high on both of these teams as legitimate contenders in the East and expect the winner of this series to at least make the conference final.
Out of respect to how good the Senators truly seem to be, we’re waiting to take what will be worse prices to bet on Carolina winning the East depending on how this series goes.
But we’re willing to live with the chances Carolina gets “shocked” in this opening series and bet on Aho to win the Conn Smythe before this series begins. Aho looks more like the clear candidate for Carolina than oddsmakers are anticipating, as an excellent two-way centre and the team’s top point producer.
A price of +800 for Svechnikov to lead the series in goals also looks like a solid bet. Svechnikov led all Hurricanes with 21 goals over the final 41 games and has personally noted that he finally feels 100% once again. He’s in the same role as Seth Jarvis and has scored right on par with him lately, so at double the price, he looks like the better option.
Finally, if you are a Senators fan that wants to get invested in your team, there are far worse bets out there than backing Ottawa to win the East at +750.
Svechnikov to score most goals in series
Philadelphia Flyers (+130) vs Pittsburgh Penguins (-155)
In some regards, you could argue that the Flyers are lucky just to be in the playoffs. They managed just 27 regulation wins and leaned on a 10-4 record in the shootout to steal the final spot.
While it’s true that with the 3-2-1 point system Philadelphia would not have sniffed the playoffs, it’s also true that head coach Rick Tocchet made some strong adjustments in the final third of the season and that the Flyers were one of the NHL’s most improved sides.
Philadelphia played to a record of 18-7-1 following the Olympic break, and allowed only 2.75 xGA/60 in that span. The Flyers allowed the fewest goals off the rush after the break, as well as the fewest chances off the rush. The additions of Porter Martone and Alex Bump deepen the offensive core, while Tyson Foerster has also returned in strong form.
Head coach Rick Tocchet has also finally put Matvei Michkov on his off-wing, and Michkov has been more effective as a result.
Dan Vladar played to a +13.8 GSAx rating and .906 save percentage across 52 appearances this season, and certainly appears to offer somewhat of an edge over Stuart Skinner, though Skinner has also been rock-solid since joining the Penguins and does hold a greater playoff pedigree.
While the Flyers have come on strong down the stretch, the Penguins have been consistently quite strong this season, and have greater depth than generally seems to be credited, which became more evident as Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin missed time down the stretch.
The Penguins hold a +25 goal differential, and holds a 51.33% expected goal share. Head coach Dan Muse has revamped their style of play to offer higher levels of possession and a greater output of truly threatening chances, which has helped to mask the expected flaws of the blue-line, though they are still far from dominant defensively.
Best Bet for Flyers vs Penguins: Over 5.5 Games -190, Over 6.5 Games +195
Two months ago, we would have been quite keen to bet the Penguins at -155 in this series, but the Flyers have been fantastic down the stretch and appear to be playing a very solid fundamental game, which should translate well to playoff hockey. As a result, there now looks to be a fairly solid case for both teams in this series, though picking without factoring in odds, our pick would be the Penguins.
It seems unlikely that either team will be entirely dominated in this series, and we’re willing to lay -190 betting that we see at least six games, and also see value betting the series to reach a seventh game at +195.
Series over 5.5 games
Boston Bruins (+155) vs Buffalo Sabres (-185)
The final Eastern Conference series features two teams that have proven a ton of people wrong this season, and chances are the fanbases of both sides would still be in disagreement with oddsmakers prices entering the playoffs.
Despite being the second-most favoured team to win in Round 1, the Sabres are still +700 to win the East, which tells us that oddsmakers still do not power-rate them as high as Tampa Bay, Carolina, or even Ottawa.
The Sabres did get their money’s worth out of winning the division though, as the Bruins do appear to be one of the two weakest teams to qualify in the Eastern Conference.
Boston holds a 46.46% expected goal share, and finished with a PDO of 101.92%. It scored 20.43 goals above expected this season, and reviewing the Bruins’ play and roster composition, its hard to see arguments as to why they were able to finish chances at a high rate.
Whenever a team seemingly outperforms analytical expectation offensively, fans of that team drum up arguments as to why in their instance its sustainable. Last season it was Washington Capitals, and the year before it was the Vancouver Canucks. Both of these teams seemingly eventually proved the more data-based analysts correct, and ultimately we believe the Bruins will do the same this postseason and in the 2026-27 regular season.
Best Bet for Bruins vs Sabres: Sabres -1.5 +100
While you can also argue that Buffalo appears to be more of paper-tiger than is credited, its depth up front and overall process still appear to be more impressive than that of the Bruins. The Sabres should be able to check David Pastrnak’s line effectively in this series, and could expose a Bruins side whose depth up front has been propped up by abnormally high finishing rates all season long.
Jeremy Swayman offers the Bruins an avenue to hang around in this series, but we can live with that given the way that Buffalo should be capable of carrying the majority of the play. At +100, there’s value in betting the Sabres to win in six games or less.
Sabres -1.5 handicap
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