The Avalanche will look to respond from a 5-2 loss to the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday evening, an NHL game in which they generated a season-low 18 shots on goal and were handed a well-deserved loss. Colorado is just 5-5-2 in January and has allowed 3.17 goals per game in that span.
There’s probably never a good time to take on the Avalanche, but oddsmakers suggest the Canadiens are getting them in a fairly ideal spot, given that Montreal is currently only a slight underdog priced at +100.
We’ve finally had some success with our same-game parlays in the previous two games involving these sides, cashing in at +1700 on Tuesday’s Montreal win and at +525 on last night’s Avalanche matchup. Many of the same angles that powered those wins look to be in play Thursday, and I’m eager to outline our long-shot parlay, which prices out at +1250 at the time of writing and is eligible for bet365’s 30% same-game parlay boost for eligible users (must be three legs).
- Both Teams to Score 3+ Goals
- Cale Makar Anytime Goalscorer
- Cole Caufield Anytime Goalscorer
Avalanche vs. Canadiens Same Game Parlay
Leg 1: Both Teams to Score 3+ Goals
The price for both teams to score three goals sits at +132 at the time of writing, and given that it looks to hold standalone value, it seems like a solid shout to kick off a parlay involving player props counting on offence from both sides.
As we touched on in the intro, the Avalanche have not been nearly as dominant this month. While they have slowed somewhat across the board, their defensive play has fallen off the most. It seems logical to expect a spirited bounce-back after another disappointing performance last night, but I’m not sold that their recent defensive lapses will be immediately alleviated overnight.
The Canadiens have scored 3.57 goals per game in 14 matchups during the month of January, and are offering a fairly well-balanced attack. Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki lead what has been a dominant top line, while Ivan Demidov and Juraj Slafkovsky have been in strong form and are offering strong support to the top line.
And while the Canadiens have been strong offensively of late, the power play has succeeded on just 18.6% of opportunities. However, the top unit has looked better than the results suggest recently, and I’m still sold on the idea that with the personnel skating on the top unit, greater effectiveness will come in the near future.
The Avalanche have scored 3.42 goals per game in what has been their worst month of the season offensively, but it seems reasonable to expect a strong showing in this matchup versus a Canadiens side that has allowed 3.57 xGA/60 over the last 10 games.
Nathan MacKinnon and the Avs’ top stars were held in check last night, but the Senators played one of the better defensive games we have seen from any team this season. I don’t know that we will see a similar storyline tonight, and it seems likely to expect some offence from both sides in this matchup.
Leg 2: Cale Makar Anytime Goalscorer
Backing Makar to record over 2.5 shots on goal was part of last night’s parlay, and he came through in managing four shots on goal from a total of eight attempts. Out of those attempts, several came on unpressured looks deep in the slot, but he failed to hit the target on a number of legitimate scoring chances.
That’s been a theme recently for Makar, who’s scored just once over the last five games. He’s had 58 shot attempts over the last five games, and a fair number of those have been from solid locations; he’s just been abnormally inaccurate. He continues to be one of the toughest skaters for any winger to try and mark in the offensive zone, and is generally on the ice with the Avs’ ultra-talented top line, who do a good job of finding him when he jumps up into shooting lanes.
Makar has been getting plenty of shots off from dangerous areas of late, and that seems likely to continue in this matchup. In a game where we are betting on the Avs’ scoring three goals, I’m happy to target one of those coming from Makar, given how many of Colorado’s scoring chances have come off his stick recently.
Leg 3: Cole Caufield Anytime Goalscorer
I’ve been leaning heavily on Caufield to score in my recent content, as he’s been featured four times in our recent anytime goalscorer parlay pieces, and twice during our same-game parlay pieces in the same span. He’s yet to let us down, and looks to be a strong option once again in Thursday’s matchup, given a straight bet price of +140 to score.
Caufield has scored nine goals over the last six games. As bettors, we are taught not to “buy high,” but the price for him to score in this matchup is essentially the same as it has been for most of his recent tear.
Over the last 21 games, Caufield has generated 10.56 individual expected goals, which suggests that, in general, he will likely continue to score often enough to make prices in this range rewarding. As we have outlined, the Avalanche have looked much leakier defensively of late, and in a game where we need three goals from Caufield, backing him to score looks to be a strong way to round out our parlay.