Our Blue Jays vs. Giants prediction breaks down Monday night’s interleague matchup as two struggling clubs look to build momentum before the All-Star break. Toronto hands the ball to veteran Kevin Gausman, while San Francisco counters with Landen Roupp in a matchup featuring plenty of intriguing player prop opportunities. Below, you’ll find our best bet, updated MLB odds, key betting trends, pitching analysis, and expert picks for the July 6 showdown at Oracle Park.
Blue Jays vs. Giants prediction
Devers over 1.5 total bases +140 @ ToonieBet
Devers over 1.5 total bases
Devers is coming off a two-homer game against the Rockies to extend his current hitting streak to nine games.
Additionally, he’s historically had some decent success against Gausman in a large sample size, going 11-for-33 (.333/.371/.636 slash line) with seven extra-base hits. The Giants first baseman hits Gausman’s best pitch, a splitter, quite well, sporting a .400 batting average and .494 wOBA off the pitch this season and a .286 batting average and .386 wOBA in a much larger sample size last season.
Devers, who ranks in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate (50.8%) this season, has exceeded 1.5 total bases in 43% of his games this season, giving this prop solid value at +140 odds (41.67% implied odds). The slugger has also beaten this line in 10 of his last 20 contests (50% hit rate).
Greg’s Blue Jays predictions are 20-14-2 for +5.58 units this season.
Blue Jays vs. Giants odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -115 |
| Giants moneyline odds | -105 |
| Run line odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+150), Giants +1.5 (-180) |
| Game total | Over 7.5 runs (-120), Under 7.5 (+100) |
| Date/time | July 6, 9: 45 p.m. ET |
Betting the Blue Jays (42-48 SU, 42-48 ATS, 46-43-1 o/u)
The Blue Jays dropped two of three games to the Mariners in Seattle over the weekend, lowering their record to 3-9 over their last 12 games.
Entering this series six games below .500, Toronto will be keen to make a push during its remainder of this West Coast trip prior to next week’s All-Star break. A poor showing over its final six games before the break could solidify the team’s position as a seller leading up to the trade deadline.
Injuries are partially to blame for Toronto’s poor start to the season, but its struggles with runners in scoring position are also well-documented. The squad is slashing just .236/.305/.369 with a .674 team OPS in those situations to rank amongst the worst teams in the league.
Betting the Giants (37-52 SU, 39-50 ATS, 41-42-6 o/u)
The Giants went just 2-4 on their recent road trip, dropping back-to-back series to the Rockies and Diamondbacks to fall to fourth in the NL West standings with a disappointing 37-52 record.
They’re just 18-22 at home this season, averaging just 3.73 runs per game at Oracle Park (the fourth worst run production at home in the majors).
Like the Blue Jays, San Francisco has suffered several key injuries to its pitching staff throughout the season, stunting the team from gaining any real momentum.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (4-7, 4.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.91 K/9)
After a pair of rough starts, Gausman got back on track in his last outing against the New York Mets, holding them to one run on five hits while striking out seven batters over six innings of work.
Gausman was hammered for a combined 13 runs over eight innings in his previous two outings against the Rangers and Cubs, a big reason why he owned a miserable 0-4 record with a bloated 6.47 ERA for the month of June.
The 35-year-old’s splitter is elite, holding the opposition to a .207 batting average (.196 xBA) with a 39.2% whiff rate.
San Francisco: RHP Landen Roupp (5-8, 4.55 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 10.01 K/9)
Roupp is coming off one of his worst starts of the season after allowing six runs on five hits over 2 2/3 innings to the Diamondbacks. He owned an ugly 7.14 ERA across six June starts after pitching strongly in the first two months of the season.
The right-hander grades out strongly across several Statcast metrics, though, ranking in the 89th percentile in average exit velocity (86.6 mph), the 93rd percentile in barrel rate (3.8%), and the 95th percentile in hard-hit rate (29.3%).
He has interesting day/night splits, as the righty owns a 3-7 record with an ugly 5.68 ERA and .275 opponents’ batting average across 12 night starts. In five day starts, Roupp is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA and a .179 opponents’ batting average.
Notable injuries
The following notable players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- P Max Scherzer (back)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- OF Jesus Sanchez (ankle)
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Joe Mantiply (knee)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
DH George Springer (paternity) is day-to-day and could be activated prior to Monday’s contest.
The following notable players are on the injured list for San Francisco:
- P Keaton Winn (elbow)
- P Matt Gage (elbow)
- 3B Matt Chapman (abdominal)
- P Joel Peguero (hamstring)
- OF Harrison Bader (foot)
- C Daniel Susac (back)
- P Jason Foley (shoulder)
- P Rowan Wick (elbow)
- P Hayden Birdsong (elbow)
- P Randy Rodriguez (elbow)
- P Joel Butto (arm)
Weather
Forecasts are calling for cool temperatures around 14 C this evening under clear skies in San Francisco. Winds will blow out to centre field at 13 mph.
Blue Jays vs. Giants betting trends
- The Blue Jays have won five straight games against the Giants dating back to 2024.
- The under is 5-2 in Toronto’s last seven games.
- The Giants have hit the team total under in 11 of their last 14 games.
- The under is 8-1 in San Francisco’s last nine home games.
Under 7.5 runs
Blue Jays vs. Giants player prop trends
- Gausman has allowed two walks or more in four straight starts and six of his last seven. He’s -115 to allow over 1.5 walks.
- Rafael Devers enters play on Monday with a nine-game hitting streak and is -200 to extend that streak. He’s slashing .364/.462/.909 with a 1.371 OPS over the last seven days.
- Devers launched two homers in Sunday’s contest with the Rockies and has four long balls in his last five games. He’s +410 to go deep on Monday.
- Roupp has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five games and is -150 to go over 4.5 strikeouts in this contest. His 26% strikeout rate ranks in the 74th percentile among qualified starting pitchers.
