The Vegas Golden Knights will face off against the Montreal Canadiens in an exciting NHL matchup on Tuesday, live from the Bell Centre, which typically provides arguably the best atmosphere in the NHL.
With a record of 25-14-12, the Knights currently sit on top of the Pacific Division and are priced at +850 to win the Stanley Cup. Knights games have typically been fairly high-scoring this season, with 3.33 goals per game, but they have also allowed 3.03 goals against per game.
The Canadiens are right in the thick of what has become an ultra-competitive Eastern Conference playoff race and are sporting a record of 5-4-1 over the last ten games.
Our Golden Knights vs. Canadiens same game parlay is priced at +1700 at the time of writing, but is eligible for bet365’s 30% same-game parlay boost for eligible users (must be three legs).
- Regulation Tie
- Cole Caufield Anytime Goalscorer
- Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Golden Knights vs. Canadiens Same Game Parlay
Leg 1: Regulation Tie
Three-point games have been running rampant across the NHL this season, and as a blanket rule, it has been a profitable trend to back in the betting market, with prices often north of +320. 27.3% of all NHL games this season have required overtime, which is the highest mark of any year since the NHL implemented the three-point system following the 2004-05 lockout.
As a general rule, if 27.3% of games are heading to overtime, prices in the +320 range are solid, given the implied probability of 23.8%. However, some games obviously seem more likely to go to overtime than others, and this matchup seems to fit the bill.
No team has required overtime more often than the Golden Knights this season, as 37.25% of the Knights have headed past regulation. They have proven to be strong when pressing for offence late in games and in 6-on-5 situations, but have struggled to pull away in a number of contests due to their weak goaltending.
Excluding empty netters, the Canadiens have played six straight one-goal games, and two of those matchups have required overtime. They hold a 51.85% expected goal share in the month of January at even strength, and their power play continues to look dangerous. Playing on home ice, I believe they are capable of hanging in with a strong Golden Knights side, but I don’t see the Knights getting blown out in this spot the same way that they were in Sunday’s letdown performance versus the Ottawa Senators.
It seems likely that this will be a closely contested back-and-forth matchup, and I’m happy to kick off our long shot parlay by backing this matchup to require overtime.
Leg 2: Cole Caufield Anytime Goal-Scorer
The Canadiens will likely need some offence if they are to hang around in this matchup and cash out on the first leg, as the Knights have been strong offensively of late, featuring two highly productive even-strength lines and a strong top power play unit.
In a game where we will need some offence from the Canadiens, it seems logical to turn to a scorching hot Caufield, whose straight bet price to score of +145 still seems appealing. Caufield has scored eight goals over the last five games and has generated 9.89 individual expected goals over the last 20 games.
While Caufield has looked more dynamic all over the ice of late, he has been aided by strong playmaking from Nick Suzuki to help generate chances at even strength, while the Canadiens’ top power play unit has also done a good job of helping create threatening scoring chances for the unit’s best shooter in Caufield.
Leg 3: Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Dorofeyev has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 5.5 shot attempts per game in that span. He’s not quite as pure a goal scorer as our guy Caufield, but he’s not all that far off, and without question, the main reason Dorofeyev has a top-six role and a spot on the Knights’ excellent top power play unit is because of his shot.
Dorofeyev has 57 goals over his last 133 regular-season games. On a team with several full-fledged superstars such as Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner, his goal production flies a little under the radar, but he features a tremendous one-timer and is adept at finding open pockets of space in the offensive zone.
Dorofeyev is currently skating alongside Mitch Marner and Tomas Hertl at even strength, a unit that holds a 60.3% expected goal share across 202.8 minutes of play, and has generated a team-high 68.93 shot attempts per 60. Dorofeyev is the primary shooter on the unit, which is generating plenty of chances, and that makes me believe his recent shot volume is sustainable.