In this article, we’ll outline our best Canadiens vs Hurricanes prediction for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Final, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams, so you can place a winning wager with any of the best NHL betting sites.
After three straight convincing wins, the Hurricanes return home with the opportunity to book a spot in the Stanley Cup Final, which would start June 2nd in Carolina if the Hurricanes are able to win Game 5. Montreal has a lot of questions to answer in this difficult spot, as they looked entirely outclassed and out of gas in two flat performances on home ice in Games 3 and 4.
After cashing our best bet on Carolina to win Game 4 at -140, our Canadiens articles are up +7.16 units with a +47.7% ROI this postseason with a record of 9-6. We will stick with backing the Hurricanes in Game 5, but will target them to cover the spread at +115.
Canadiens vs Hurricanes Prediction: Hurricanes -1.5 +115 (Play to +110)
Hurricanes puck line -1.5
The Hurricanes completely suffocated the Canadiens in Game 4, and are seemingly sucking the life out of Montreal shift after shift. They are deeper, more well-rested, and have looked highly organized while taking away the next available option and consistently forcing possession back into their hands efficiently.
The Canadiens have handled adversity well this postseason and have shown plenty of resilience. They have also fared well on the road. But those factors don’t feel overly meaningful entering this matchup, as Carolina simply seems to be a far better team at this point, and it doesn’t seem that tactical adjustments from Martin St. Louis can change much at this point.
Over the last three games the Hurricanes have played to an absurd expected goal share of 80.21%. In those three matchups, the Canadiens set the record for the lowest output of shots on goal across a three-game span in NHL playoff history.
It seems unlikely that the Hurricanes will relent or take Game 5 of the series lightly. This is a roster and organization that has been priming itself for this moment for several seasons, and at +115, it makes sense to bet into Carolina booking a well-deserved spot in the Final with another convincing win.
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Odds
| Canadiens Moneyline odds | (+195) |
| Hurricanes Moneyline odds | (-240) |
| Puck Line Odds | Canadiens +1.5 (-135) Hurricanes -1.5 (+115) |
| Series Winner Odds | Canadiens (+1400), Hurricanes (-3000) |
| Goal Total | Over 5.5 goals (-110), Under 5.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Montreal Canadiens
Obviously generating 12.09 shots per 60 over a three-game span is a big concern; no need to point that out to Martin St. Louis. Saying a lack of shots is the problem for Montreal barely begins to grasp the issues at hand however, and simply pouring a few more low-quality shots on target isn’t going to change anything.
The Canadiens need to find ways to extend spells of possession and open up a little more space in key areas of the ice, and with the way Carolina is completely taking away any time and space, that’s a lot easier said than done. It doesn’t feel like any adjustments in terms of lines or line matchups will lead to notably different results for the Canadiens right now.
The Hurricanes have done a great job of forechecking Montreal’s defenders aggressively, while their defenders step up to take away the wall, and aside from in Game 1, have had a strong F3 taking away options in the middle. Carolina’s well-concerted press has forced a lot of chips out of the zone to nobody, and then they are right back in the zone generating chances.
Martin St. Louis is starting to shoulder some blame, but it’s hard to imagine any coach coming in and making adjustments which would have a thinner Canadiens roster outplaying a well-oiled Hurricanes machine in this series.
While Montreal’s depth up front was a strength earlier on in the postseason, that was not necessarily expected to be the case. Montreal is just beginning its contention window, while the Hurricanes have been priming the roster to finally break through for several seasons, and the talent disparity between the two rosters has been highly apparent.
Jakub Dobes has certainly done all he can to give the Canadiens a fighting chance in the series and now holds a +14.6 GSAx rating and .912 save percentage this postseason. He’s priced at +8000 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy compared to a price of +3500 for Montreal to win the Cup, and if you believe Montreal could still pull this thing off, backing Dobes to win the Conn Smythe makes much more sense.
Betting Carolina Hurricanes
At the start of the postseason, we discussed how it seemed unfair to downgrade Carolina’s chances of making a meaningful run simply because it had lost to a pair of elite Florida Panthers teams in the conference final, when the majority of the teams in the mix out East had not even been realistic contenders in recent years.
While Carolina was poised to be in the mix once again this season, GM Eric Tulsky’s recent acquisitions have proven to be quite successful, and it’s not really hindsight 20-20 to say that he should have been one of the nominees for the Jim Gregory award for the NHL GM of the year.
While the playoffs have certainly made it much more obvious that Tulsky’s recent roster additions were a large success, it was still fairly clear in the regular season that the additions of K’Andre Miller, Nikolaj Ehlers and Logan Stankoven had effectively rounded out an extremely strong roster.
It’s hard to pinpoint a clear Conn Smythe favourite for the Hurricanes, and that could be taken as a compliment towards the overall composition of the roster. Frederik Andersen is the betting favourite, but it’s certainly not as though he has been asked to steal many games, and only in Round 1 versus the Senators did his above-average play truly influence the outcome.
Carolina’s top line of Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov has had a fairly disappointing postseason overall but has been dominant in the last two games of the series.
The second line of Jackson Blake, Taylor Hall and Logan Stankoven has been fantastic all postseason long, which was a key reason the team went 8-0 entering this series with the top line offering fairly modest play.
The third trio of Ehlers, Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook has proven to be a nightmare to play against in this series and is capable of trapping high-quality lines in the defensive zone while chipping in a little bit of offence.
Carolina’s depth core has proven to be quite excellent this postseason, and perhaps the greatest testament to that fact is that there are legitimate arguments to be made that Jaccob Slavin has only been the fourth-best defender on the team this postseason.
Carolina ranks first with an expected goal share of 64.16% this postseason, while the Golden Knights rank second with an expected goal share of 54.62%. Those two sides ranked second and fourth in regular season expected goal share, while the Senators ranked third.
After the Hurricanes dismantled the Senators in four games, the narrative became how Carolina arrived at this point without facing a real test. However, all of the underlying metrics, which would have predicted the rest of the postseason bracket quite efficiently, rated Ottawa quite highly, and perhaps the Canes just deserve some credit for making the Sens look so flat offensively.
You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets on the Action Network App!
