In this article, we’ll outline our best Golden Knights vs. Avalanche prediction for Game 4, as well as the relevant betting notes and NHL odds for both teams.
In completely shocking fashion, the Avalanche blew a 3-0 lead Sunday and likely blew the series as a result. Colorado is now priced at +750 to win the series and become just the fifth team in NHL history to come back and win a series after facing a 3-0 deficit.
Avalanche vs Golden Knights Prediction: First Period Under 1.5 Total Goals +105 (Play to +100)
Under 1.5 1st period goals
This high-pressure elimination game feels like a good spot to back the first period under, a play that has been good to us thus far this postseason, and hit in two of three games in this series.
After just one combined first-period goal in Games 1 and 2, Game 3 saw the Avalanche come flying out of the gates and earn a 3-0 first-period lead, as the Knights were uncharacteristically sloppy defensively early on.
Aside from the first period of Game 3, the Knights have offered a strong defensive game in this series and have done a good job of avoiding backbreaking defensive mistakes while leaning on excellent play in goal from Carter Hart and some timely scoring at the other end of the ice.
The Knights have allowed only 2.47 goals against per game this postseason. Though they may not necessarily have dominated play at even strength the way that many recent Stanley Cup finalists have, they seem to feel quite comfortable in tight-checking defensive games.
While Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar’s potential levels of play feel like huge question marks for the Avalanche, with the season on the line, it feels logical to expect a desperate, well-detailed defensive performance in order to ensure a realistic chance of victory.
At +105, we seem to be getting a good price to back the first period under in a do-or-die spot for the Avalanche, who have still allowed only 2.60 xGA/60 at even strength in the series.
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights odds
| Avalanche moneyline odds | -115 |
| Golden Knights moneyline odds | -105 |
| Puck line odds | Avalanche -1.5 (+210), Golden Knights +1.5 (-260) |
| Series winner odds | Golden Knights -1200, Avalanche +750 |
| Goal total | Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 goals (+100) |
Betting Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche were 52-0 with a multi-goal lead this season entering Game 3, but saw that streak come to an end at the worst possible time.
We were high on the Knights’ chances of making this series competitive, but even the most pro-Knights observers probably couldn’t have imagined things playing out as they have. It hasn’t felt as though the Avalanche have been entirely overmatched by any means, especially relative to being down 3-0, but Vegas has certainly been drastically more clutch in the most important moments of each game.
At even strength, the Avalanche have played to a 53.32% expected goal share in the series. That mark does feel fair having closely watched all three games, but the Knights have won the special teams battle, while Hart has outperformed Scott Wedgewood, which has been enough to outweigh Colorado’s slight edge in terms of chances created at even strength.
Makar played 27:14 in his return to action. While there were sequences where his incredible mobility made a difference, his puck-handling and play-making weren’t at the level we are used to seeing, and it did feel clear that whatever shoulder injury he is dealing with hampered his performance.
Nathan MacKinnon will surely be dealing with some pain in this matchup after a blocked shot caught him in an awkward spot on the knee just above the shin pad. He did show some burst in the dying stages of the game with the goaltender pulled, but his status does feel like a concern.
On paper, the Avs have some talents that could be capable of helping the team hang around if Makar and MacKinnon aren’t at their best, but to this point skaters such as Brock Nelson and Martin Necas have been highly disappointing in the series. Nelson had some meaningful looks in Game 3, but failed to convert and has now tallied just three points this postseason.
It’s unclear who will start in goal for the Avalanche in Game 4 with their season on the line. Wedgewood has not been awful in the series, but his play has been questionable enough that it’s not out of the question for the team to make a bold pivot to Mackenzie Blackwood.
Betting Vegas Golden Knights
Historical data suggests that teams entering Game 3 with a 2-0 lead do seemingly have a tendency to relent and struggle to match the intensity of their opponent. Since the 2009 postseason, teams down two games in the series are 55-47, and betting on each team down 2-0 in the series would have yielded a +4.9% ROI in those matchups.
In the first period, it felt quite clear that Vegas had come out a little flat in a natural situation to do so, leaving Hart out to dry on two of the goals. The response authored in the next two periods was extremely impressive, though, as the Knights allowed only five high-danger chances in periods two and three to allow themselves to chip away at the lead.
Entering the series, we discussed how the Knights ranked second in expected goals against per 60 in the regular season, and that historically that statistic has been an extremely effective indicator towards postseason success.
While Hart’s brilliance and Makar’s absence have been huge storylines in the series, the Knights deserve some credit for how well they have defended. Even versus the Minnesota Wild, Colorado’s depth skaters were productive enough to think it would have a legitimate chance of winning without Makar, but the Knights have checked well and prevented Colorado’s deep attack from being a noteworthy strength.
Hart has now played to a +7.2 GSAx and .921 save percentage this postseason, and has been extremely sharp overall, aside from the early portion of Round 1.
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