In this article, we’ll outline our best Golden Knights vs. Avalanche prediction for Game 1, as well as the relevant betting notes and NHL odds for both teams.
For the majority of the season, the underperforming Knights appeared to be a better team than their record suggested. They lost 17 games in the 3-on-3 and shootout novelty settlements, while receiving horrid goaltending and held strong underlying metrics.
It’s really not overly surprising that they have managed to turn things around and win two rounds, but the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Avalanche look to be a well-oiled machine and offer a drastically tougher test than the Knights have faced thus far.
Oddsmakers from the top NHL betting sites still consider the Avalanche the team to beat, which is no surprise given their 8-1 record in the first two rounds of the postseason after a 121-point regular season.
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Game 1 Prediction: Knights to Upset the Avs
In our official Golden Knights vs. Avalanche prediction, we’ve got the underdog Golden Knights to pull off the upset victory over the Avalanche as they hand them their second loss of the 2026 NHL Playoffs.
Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline +165 (bet365, Play to +160)
Colorado has been the best team in the NHL this season and is worthy of its 8-1 postseason record. Our pick here is by no means disputing which side is better, but simply tapping into the idea that the Knights seem to be a little more live in Game 1 than their long price of +165 suggests, in a spot where not many bettors will take their chances fading Colorado.
Carter Hart played to a +3.5 GSAx rating in Round 2 versus the Anaheim Ducks, as well as a .935 save percentage. It’s certainly not a lock that Hart will continue to perform at a high level, but if the Knights are to continue receiving strong goaltending, they have some characteristics that make them appealing at this price point.
From January 1st until the end of the regular season, the Golden Knights led the NHL with an xGA/60 rating of 2.92. That metric correlates strongly with postseason success, as the previous seven Stanley Cup-winning teams have averaged a rank of 5.42 in xGA/60.
Minnesota’s penalty kill struggled in Round 1 versus the Dallas Stars and became an even softer target in Round 2 with Jonas Brodin and Joel Eriksson Ek sidelined. The Avs’ power play succeeded on 38.5% of opportunities last round, but the Golden Knights’ penalty kill was excellent versus a Ducks power play that was dominant in Round 1.
It seems reasonable to think the Golden Knights can at least force Colorado to beat them at even-strength, which they very well may, and their strong defensive play may make the outcome of Game 1 slightly more volatile than oddsmakers are expecting.
The other thing that could break in favour of the Golden Knights in Game 1 is the possibility that Cale Makar will be unavailable or not at his best while dealing with an injury that has kept him from skating in the lead-up to this matchup.
With respect to the Avs, who look excellent, the Golden Knights look to provide more value in Game 1 simply because of how long the number is.
Golden Knights Moneyline
Golden Knights vs Avalanche Odds
| Golden Knights Moneyline Odds | +165 |
| Avalanche Moneyline Odds | -200 |
| Puck Line Odds | Golden Knights +1.5 (-160), Avalanche -1.5 (+135) |
| Series Odds | Golden Knights (+220), Avalanche (-270) |
| Goal Total | Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100) |
Odds Courtesy of bet365.
Betting Vegas Golden Knights
Though the Knights have arrived in this series in tumultuous fashion, including a coaching change with just eight games left in the season, this was considered to be the second most likely Western Conference Final based on consensus betting odds.
The Knights’ roster looked quite excellent on paper entering the year, thanks to the addition of Mitch Marner, but it underperformed expectations in the regular season due to a combination of bad results in close games and awful goaltending.
Whether Hart can build on his strong showing versus the Ducks is the greatest question mark for the Knights in this series, as the team obviously needs to play to its ceiling to find success against a relatively flawless Avalanche side.
The Knights made a controversial decision to sign Hart and attempt to tap into the upside of the 27-year-old goaltender for a discounted price. Whether you believe Hart deserves to be playing or not, it is logical that it took some time for him to get up to speed, and his game has trended in the right direction this postseason after an ugly start to the campaign.
If Hart is able to continue performing at a high level, there are several legitimate arguments that suggest the Knights are a step up from the Wild, particularly with Brodin and Ek missing the entirety of the series. The Knights did hold superior underlying results in the regular season, and at the critical centre-ice position offer a legitimate #1 option in Jack Eichel, as well as steady supporting options in William Karlsson, who missed the majority of the season, and Tomas Hertl.
Mark Stone’s absence leaves a huge hole in the Knights’ roster and is a meaningful concern. Though his production has fallen off a little in the latter portion of the year, the underlying metrics suggest he is still the Knights’ best defensive forward, and he’s obviously one of the more intelligent skaters in the league.
Karlsson and Hertl are two obvious candidates to help fill in for Stone’s absence. Due to a combination of unavailability and underperformance, the two have not had a significant impact on the team in the latter stages of the year, but could be “x” factors in a series against a very deep Avalanche side.
Mitch Marner’s brilliant postseason has likely been due to a combination of factors working in his favour. He’s played drastically softer defensive teams than he ever has in the postseason before, while he’s surely playing with higher confidence than in previous postseasons, aided by the fact that his scoring-chance assists have been finished at a greater rate.
The Knights’ penalty kill has succeeded on 86.4% of opportunities this postseason and will need to be a strength in this series versus the NHL’s best even-strength side. While Colorado’s power play enjoyed greater success last series, it was its most significant weakness in the regular season, though the talent offered on the top unit makes that hard to believe.
Betting Colorado Avalanche
The greatest concern for the Avs moving forward is that Makar’s impact could be reduced by a seemingly significant injury, but even if that is the case, the team may still have what it takes to go all the way.
Nathan MacKinnon was arguably the best skater last round versus the Wild, while Makar arguably outperformed a heavily overworked Quinn Hughes. While Kirill Kaprizov’s play was a big talking point based on his massive contract, Colorado’s bottom-six dominated the Wild’s.
The third line of Valeri Nichushkin, Nazem Kadri and Logan O’Connor had a solid series while skating in some very winnable matchups, while Parker Kelly and Jack Drury led the fourth line to exceptional results.
Colorado’s defensive core also looks rock-solid from top to bottom and will be no pushover, even if Makar were to miss some time. Brett Kulak was the only potential weakness on the unit based on the regular season, but he had an excellent series versus Minnesota, and has seemingly elevated his play once again in the postseason, as was the case in previous years with the Edmonton Oilers.
If Makar were to miss this game, Sam Malinski would presumably bump onto the top pairing and top power play unit and could be worth looking at in the player prop market if you were able to get some looks in prior to price adjustments being made.
The Avalanche’s goaltending feels slightly less solid than it did prior to the Minnesota series, but is still far from a clear weakness on paper.
Scott Wedgewood stopped 7-of-7 shots faced. After Mackenzie Blackwood was pulled in Game 5, it seems much more likely that Wedgewood will get the start in this matchup. Wedgewood has played to a +2.0 GSAx rating and a .914 save percentage in eight appearances this postseason, after a strong regular season.
