In this article, we’ll outline our best Sabres vs. Canadiens prediction for Game 6, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
The Canadiens will have the opportunity to secure a spot in the Eastern Conference Final Saturday on home ice, and the Bell Centre will surely be a madhouse as a result.
The Sabres pushed back in Game 4 and came out of the first period of Game 5 with a lead, but Montreal authored an excellent response and ultimately feels deserving of a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven series. Oddsmakers are high on the Canadiens’ chances of wrapping things up on home ice, as Montreal is currently priced at -160, which is by a considerable margin the most any team has been favoured in the series.
Our Game 5 best bet was an embarrassment, but our record of 7-2 and +8.45 units on Canadiens matchups this postseason is still excellent. We will shake things up with a long-shot selection fading two of Buffalo’s greatest underperformers in the series at +250.
Sabres vs Canadiens Prediction
Tage Thompson/Alex Tuch Under 0.5 Points Parlay +250 (Play to +240)
Thompson/Tuch points parlay
All of the talk ahead of this game revolves around the need for Thompson and Tuch to elevate their game. The motivation will surely be there, but with that said its Game 6 of the series, and Montreal has more or less entirely dominated the Sabres’ top line after a strong performance versus the Tampa Bay Lightning’s superstars in Round 1.
Buffalo’s top line of Thompson, Tuch, and Krebs has been outscored 5-0 in the series and has generated only five high-danger scoring chances at even strength. Based on the amount of looks they are actually creating, Tuch and Thompson’s chances of producing seem way overvalued currently, unless they truly are able to elevate their play significantly in this matchup.
Thompson in particular does not look right, and it wouldn’t be remotely surprising if the Sabres are eliminated that word comes out that he was playing through a significant injury. If he is not showing notably more jump early on in this matchup, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Lindy Ruff use his second and third lines evenly with the top unit.
The two have been productive with the man advantage, but we can live with that concern given the price we are getting, and the fact that referees tend to call things much more loosely in Games 6 and 7, while players are less willing to risk needless penalties than earlier on in the series.
And though our call on the first period in Game 5 was a disaster, there were a lot of fluky goals and we still believe that Game 6 will likely end up being somewhat low scoring.
Sabres vs. Canadiens Odds
| Sabres moneyline odds | +135 |
| Canadiens moneyline odds | -160 |
| Puck Line odds | Sabres +1.5 (-190), Canadiens -1.5 (+160) |
| Series odds | Sabres (+325), Canadiens (-425) |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (+100), Under 6.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Buffalo Sabres
It seemed logical to believe that we might see a cleaner, less chaotic matchup in Game 5, but the first period was a sloppy, wide-open mess that ultimately ended with the Sabres holding a 3-2 lead. Both coaches probably weren’t thrilled with the opening period, but it was head coach Martin St. Louis’ side that offered a much sharper performance in period two, and looked to really get to their game.
It doesn’t seem to be a lazy narrative to simply say that the Canadiens’ top stars are outplaying Buffalo’s top stars in this series. Rasmus Dahlin has had some positive moments but ultimately has made more mistakes than his counterpart, Lane Hutson, who has undoubtedly outperformed Dahlin in the series.
As noted, Buffalo’s top line has been getting completely torched at even strength. Depth forwards such as Zach Benson, Josh Doan, and even Konsta Helenius have had some strong moments, but it’s very tough to win games this time of year when your top line is not only not producing at even strength, but being entirely caved in.
The Sabres’ defensive results this season were not quite as strong as their record suggested, which was a point more analytical-based accounts noted consistently as they entered the playoffs, and they did receive among the league’s best goaltending, somewhat out of the blue, in the regular season.
While Montreal was comparably shaky defensively in the regular season, it has clearly elevated its defensive game throughout the playoffs. While Buffalo played fairly well in that regard versus Boston, the Bruins’ offensive depth still looked awful on paper, and a deeper Canadiens side has exposed some of the Sabres’ weaknesses throughout the series.
While it’s not been confirmed that the Sabres will pivot back to Alex Lyon in goal, it seems pretty logical to conclude that will be the case. Lyon holds a +3.0 GSAx rating and .917 save percentage across nine appearances this postseason.
Betting Montreal Canadiens
It continues to feel as though when things get a little hairy this postseason, the Canadiens have generally had a fairly strong response and have proven the ability to keep level heads. Martin St. Louis was seemingly able to calm his young side down after another chaotic opening period in Game 5, and they authored an excellent response in the second period before going into a bit of a shell in attempting to get their two-goal lead home.
Jakub Dobes showed a ton of resilience and character in the final two periods of the game, after a really shaky showing in the first frame. He ultimately stopped 33 of 36 shots faced and now holds a +8.1 GSAx rating and a .914 save percentage and is considered the Canadiens’ Conn Smythe favourite.
While Dobes has been a huge part of the team’s success and provided an excellent backbone for the team, they have generally defended quite respectably, and Game 7 of the first round felt like the only game in which Dobes truly stole a result.
Dobes currently feels like the sturdier option in goal, but it also feels as though the Canadiens have less question marks elsewhere. The top line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky authored arguably their best even-strength performance of the postseason in Game 4 despite failing to break through, then brought a similar effort into Game 5 and were rewarded with some important tallies.
Right now, Suzuki’s line feels to offer a significant upper hand over the Thompson unit, which places a lot of pressure upon Buffalo’s middle-six to dominate the Canadiens’ depth units, which have generally been better than expected all postseason long.
Relative to what we typically see this time of year, the Canadiens have also had some strong injury luck this postseason. Patrik Laine is currently the only skater on the IR, and no skaters seem to be dealing with injuries that are hampering them too greatly.
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