In this article, we’ll outline our best Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres prediction for Game 5, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
The Sabres ultimately emerged victorious from a chaotic, controversial Game 4 that left both fanbases debating the refereeing and which side was more fortuitous. Buffalo seemingly did really elevate its level of play after convincing losses in Games 2 and 3, and suddenly this series feels wide open once again.
Montreal closed at -150 in Game 4, which made it the largest it had been favoured to win a game since Game 78 of the regular season. Oddsmakers are giving more respect to Buffalo ahead of Game 5, which is in part due to the change in venue and in part due to Buffalo’s much-improved showing in Game 4.
After hitting our pick on Alex Tuch to record over 2.5 shots on goal at +105, our picks from Canadiens articles this postseason are now 7-1 and +9.45 units. We will look to build on that record Thursday with a bet on the first period to go under 1.5 total goals.
Canadiens vs Sabres Prediction
First Period Under 1.5 +100 (Play to -110)
First period under 1.5 goals
Entering this series, we were high on the angle that the games would be more high-event and open than the Canadiens’ matchups in Round 1 versus the Tampa Bay Lightning were. That take has seemingly been one of the good ones, but after a 3-2 final in a penalty-filled Game 4, it seems likely that things will continue to tighten up Thursday in this pivotal swing game.
The Canadiens generated only 1.76 expected goals at even strength in Game 4, while the Sabres generated 2.56 in what was a much more well-rounded bounce-back performance.
We should see both sides take fewer needless penalties in this matchup, and the refs will likely be a little more eager to let some borderline penalties go and avoid being as much of a story in this game.
Montreal’s defensive play in Round 1 was arguably the greatest reason that it found its way past an elite Lightning side, and it will likely look to lean on a sharp, well-organized defensive performance in attempting to bounce back on the road in this matchup.
The Canadiens’ top offensive superstars are still having a fairly hard time generating much at even strength, but the flaw has been masked by the team’s strong defensive play and Jakub Dobes’s sturdy work in goal.
Alex Tuch noted that the Sabres needed to clean things up defensively ahead of Game 4, and ultimately they did back up that talk, though they really taxed themselves by taking a number of undisciplined penalties. Ukko-Pekko Luukkonen authored a stable performance in goal after two shaky performances to start the postseason following an excellent regular season.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Odds
| Canadiens moneyline odds | +100 |
| Sabres moneyline odds | -120 |
| Puck Line odds | Canadiens +1.5 (-250), Sabres -1.5 (+205) |
| Series odds | Canadiens (-110), Sabres (-110) |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (+100), Under 6 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Montreal Canadiens
Though the Canadiens were able to make a strong push to try and tie the game, they came out flat in the first period and were lucky to come out with a lead. While Tage Thompson’s 2-2 goal was quite fortunate, Buffalo did carry more of the overall play at even strength and looked to be the sharper side.
The Habs went just 1-for-7 on the power play and in turn failed to capitalize on some undisciplined play from the Sabres that easily could have wasted what felt like a clear bounce-back performance.
Martin St. Louis noted the Canadiens’ start was poor and is seemingly preaching the right mindset in the need for his side to be better. The Canadiens did defend the rush fairly well and generated more offensive zone time following the controversial disallowed goal, but looked a little disjointed at times in the offensive zone and were unable to break the Sabres down despite generating a lot of shot attempts.
After Game 3, all of the talk was how the Canadiens were clearly the faster side and looked head-and-shoulders above the Sabres, and it didn’t feel as though the team was entirely ready out of the gates for Buffalo’s response. Later on in the game, Montreal’s excellent ability to win loose puck battles and drive offensive zone time as a result did start to shine through, and those still feel to be meaningful strengths moving forward in the series.
And though they were not rewarded with any even strength production, the top line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky did create some good scoring chances and had one of their better showings of the postseason.
Dobes had another solid showing in goal in Game 4, and now holds a +7.6 GSAx rating this postseason as well as a .914 save percentage. He will get the start once again in Game 5.
Betting Buffalo Sabres
The saying in hockey that you earn your bounces seemed to come to fruition for the Sabres in Game 4, as it was obvious that they were unlucky to come out of the first period down a goal but were gifted a game-tying goal after a bounce off the stanchion. Buffalo got Montreal on its heels early on, before seemingly losing its rhythm after a bizarre sequence of reviews and penalties.
Ultimately, the majority of head coach Lindy Ruff’s lineup adjustments were effective. Luukkonen had a strong start in goal stopping 29 of 31 shots faced.
While the move was viewed as controversial, Luukkonen had very similar numbers to Alex Lyon in the regular season, and observers may have overrated the meaningfulness of two shaky performances early on in Round 1.
Konsta Helenius had a very strong showing in his playoff debut and will likely be awarded more than 12:53 in Thursday’s matchup. He created some quality scoring chances at even strength and used his speed to drive pucks into dangerous areas effectively.
Tage Thompson still seems to be labouring to some extent and has not looked to have the same two-way impact we are used to seeing thus far in the series, though his offensive stat line is solid with four points. Though it hasn’t really played out this way thus far, it feels like Montreal’s top line might hold the upper hand at this point and could be primed to be the difference in the series.
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