In this article, we’ll outline our best Wild vs. Avalanche picks for Game 5, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
The Stanley Cup-favourite Avalanche will look to secure their spot in the Western Conference final Wednesday as the series shifts back to Ball Arena with Colorado leading 3-1.
While the score remained close for the majority of Game 5, Colorado outchanced Minnesota by a considerable margin and once again forced Jesper Wallstedt to handle a difficult workload. After closing at -140 in Game 4, the Avalanche are massive -220 favourites in Game 5, which is in part due to home-ice advantage as well as Colorado’s strong underlying metrics in the series.
Avalanche vs Wild picks
Avalanche -1.5 +115 (Play to +110)
Avalanche -1.5
By a fairly wide margin, this is the largest favourite that we have backed in any of our pieces this postseason. Given that Minnesota was always considered to be a legitimate Cup contender, it might not feel like an overly appealing spot to do so.
Minnesota’s top stars, and Quinn Hughes in particular, seem to be running out of gas, and have been outperformed by Colorado’s superstars throughout the majority of this series. The Avalanche’s offensive depth is vastly superior, especially down the middle at the critical centre-ice position.
The Avalanche have played to a 55.48% expected goal share in the series and led 5.2 to 2.88 in expected goal share in Game 4. Colorado’s roster features more skill up front and has done well to create truly threatening scoring chances in this series, and the analytics do not seem to be overvaluing its play.
Hughes has averaged 32:06 of ice time over the last six games, while Brock Faber has 30:28 in the same span. The Wild have relied on the duo to handle a massive workload in two fast-paced, physical series and that overreliance is seemingly starting to take a toll on their level of play.
We shouldn’t see a superior, deeper Avs side letdown in this matchup with the opportunity to close the series out on home ice Wednesday, and believe they have generally lived up to the hype versus a shorthanded Wild side thus far in the series.
Wild vs. Avalanche Odds
| Wild moneyline odds | +180 |
| Avalanche moneyline odds | -220 |
| Puck Line odds | Wild +1.5 (-135), Avalanche -1.5 (+115) |
| Series odds | Wild (+1100), Avalanche (-2220) |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-105), Under 6.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Minnesota Wild
By no means would we say that Minnesota was lucky to get past the Dallas Stars, but its overall process and even-strength play were seemingly slightly overrated based on the fact that Jesper Wallstedt stopped .970% of the shots he faced at even strength.
The Stars generated more scoring chances than Minnesota at even strength but struggled to finish any of those looks. The Wild have allowed 4.73 xGA/60 in the series, a rating that would have made them the worst defensive team in the NHL this season.
The losses of Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin have greatly reduced the Wild’s chances of keeping a nearly flawless roster at bay. Obviously, the entire outcome of a series can’t be pinned on the loss of two skaters, but based on how dominant Colorado was this season, the Wild always needed to play to their ceiling to find success in this matchup. Losing their best shutdown defender and highest-quality centre made the task that much more difficult and made the Avalanche’s roster far superior on paper.
Colorado’s greatest weakness throughout the regular season was its power play, though it did start to find more success in the final third of the year. Minnesota has succeeded on just 58.3% of its penalty kills in the series and has allowed at least one goal shorthanded in all 10 games this postseason.
Beating the Avalanche at even strength is difficult enough, but attempting to get past them while allowing a power-play goal on close to every other opportunity is not overly realistic.
Wallstedt is expected to get the start in goal. He holds a +4.8 GSAx rating and .912 save percentage this postseason, and both of those marks are tanked by the fact that he soaked up all eight goals in Game 1. He bounced back with a strong performance in Game 3, and gave his side a fighting chance in Game 4 on a night where Colorado dictated most of the play.
Betting Colorado Avalanche
Though Minnesota was able to garner an early lead with a power-play goal from Danila Yurov, the Avalanche felt like the team dictating play for the majority of Game 4. Minnesota made a bit of a push in the second period, but the Avalanche generated 39 scoring chances while allowing just 25 against and were able to stick with it until things finally broke their way.
The debate regarding whether Cale Makar or Hughes was the best defender in the world was a huge storyline entering this series. Makar has played to a 60.3% expected goal share at even strength in the series and an actual goal share of 71.4%. Makar outplaying Hughes doesn’t really feel like the story of the series by any means, though.
Colorado’s overall depth has proven to be superior, which is to be expected based upon how the roster currently grades out on paper. There is a legitimate argument to be made that all four of the Avs centres offer an edge over the skaters employing the same role on the Wild.
Brock Nelson and Nazem Kadri would both be the Wild’s top centres with Ek sidelined, and GM Chris MacFarland is seemingly benefiting from the two-way swing that he created when he managed to secure Kadri and prevent him from going to a division rival in need of another centre.
Mackenzie Blackwood is expected to get the start after stopping 19 of 21 shots faced in Game 4. It was surprising to me that Colorado pivoted from Scott Wedgewood in Game 4, but both goalies were effective in the regular season, and more teams are seemingly buying into the idea that using one goaltender for an entire postseason can lead to fatigue that causes a drop off in form.
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