While our player prop pieces have faltered down the stretch, we have gotten into a strong run with our same-game parlays, and cashed another one yesterday at +250, prior to bet365‘s 25% boost. Wednesday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and San Jose Sharks figures to be a good one, as Hart Trophy candidates Connor McDavid and Macklin Celebrini will face off in a game featuring plenty of playoff significance.
Bet365 is offering a superboost on McDavid to score at +200, which we will also touch on in this article.
Our five-leg parlay prices out at +1500 at the time of writing, as we will target a tie through regulation and some offence from a number of the usual suspects from each side.
- Leg 1: Regulation Tie (+325 as a straight)
- Legs 2 and 3: Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points and Evan Bouchard Over 0.5 Points (+115 as a two-leg parlay)
- Legs 4 and 5: Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith Over 0.5 Points Each (-115 as a two-leg parlay)
Nick’s Oilers/Sharks SGP
Leg 1: Regulation Tie (+325 as a straight)
Exactly 25.3% of all games this season have required overtime, and it’s a trend that we have outlined consistently in these same game parlays. With prices mainly remaining close to the price of +325 we see on this matchup, which implies a probability of 23%, it’s an angle that we have found success with this season, particularly as there does seem to be an effective process in helping to pick specific matchups that seem more likely than others to require overtime.
It also works well as a framework to set up a long shot SGP, in which we are targeting some offence from both sides.
While, in general, you would think that games where teams should be specifically motivated not to award their opponent a point, if you review the average games down the stretch, it’s pretty clear that games where both teams are playing very meaningful hockey are more likely to go to overtime, as was once again evidenced on Tuesday night’s hefty 11-game card, which saw five games go to overtime.
It’s hard for me to imagine the Sharks ever really blowing the Oilers out in this spot, but I do believe in an extremely critical matchup on home ice they will at least keep it close. Excluding empty-net goals, the Sharks only have one multi-goal win over their last 13 games, and it came versus the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Oilers will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back, after losing last night in Utah 6-5 in overtime. They do profile as a better team than the Sharks right now, but this is a difficult traveling back-to-back and this game doesn’t scream comfortable win to me at all.
Leg 2/3: Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points and Evan Bouchard Over 0.5 Points (+115 as a two-leg parlay)
These two legs have made the cut for the vast majority of our Oilers’ same game parlays down the stretch, and once again, it looks more likely to hit than the +115 price tag suggests in Wednesday’s matchup.
Maybe it’s fatigue from fans and observers, but McDavid does not seem to be getting enough credit to be priced at +1400 to win the Hart Trophy. He’s put up 32 points over 20 games since the Olympic break, and in a number of Edmonton’s recent wins has been the clearest reason for the result.
McDavid remained hot last night with two points versus a Utah Mammoth side that is typically solid defensively. While I’m hopeful the Sharks can keep this game competitive, they are by no means a good defensive side and have allowed 3.50 goals against per game over the last 10 matchups, which is par for the course of the entire season.
Since January 1st, Bouchard has been held pointless just six times in 37 games played, and has racked up 52 points in that span. He obviously benefits tremendously from playing alongside the game’s best skater, but his tremendous poise and ability to make simple plays to prolong spells of possession also benefit McDavid significantly.
Legs 4/5: Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith Over 0.5 Points Each (-115 as a two-leg parlay)
Backing this stack made the cut for Wednesday’s player props best bets piece, and it certainly appears to be a solid way to round out our long-shot parlay in a game where we will need some offence from the Sharks.
Celebrini has been in excellent form down the stretch, and on a nightly basis his determination to drag his team to success is palpable and endearing. While Celebrini is obviously the straw that stirs the drink, San Jose’s top line has been in strong form of late, as Will Smith and Collin Graf have both also been playing at a high level.
Smith has put up 10 points over the last 10 games and had a notably strong showing on Monday in a critical matchup vs. the Chicago Blackhawks. In the same span Celebrini has racked up 12 points. The two also link together on the Sharks’ top power-play unit, making this stack fully correlated in this matchup.
Bet365 Super Boost: Connor McDavid to Score (Boosted to +200)
In general, the majority of bet365’s superboosts hold strong expected value and are worthy of playing to the max if you are comfortable with the loss. The limits are generally quite low for most users, but these boosts are generally profitable long-term, and are mainly offered as a promotional tool, which is worth taking advantage of.
McDavid is priced at +105 to score without the boost in this matchup, which looks like a fair price to me. So while this bet is still expected to lose slightly more often than it will win, being paid off at +200 if McDavid does score is obviously a strong proposition.
McDavid has 44 goals goals in 78 games this season, and seven goals over his last 10 games played. His recent underlying metrics suggest he should continue scoring slightly more than 0.50 goals per game, and as noted, the non boosted price of +105 for him to score looks accurate.
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