NHL Odds, Betting Notes, & Picks For Nov. 17

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from the marquee matchups from Monday’s six-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet of the night

Best bet – Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets Regulation Tie: +320

Ties have been running rampant this season in the NHL, and as I touched on in this SGP piece  last week, online sportsbooks have been reluctant to adjust their long prices for ties, suggesting they believe this recent trend is simply randomness.

I’m not sure this recent outbreak of three-point games is entirely randomness, though, as there seems to be some legitimate causation. Based on their third-period tactics, teams appear more content than ever to at least guarantee themselves one point by getting to overtime, and with the parity in the Eastern Conference at an all-time high, there have been a ton of games with close scorelines in the third period.

As a fan of the game, I’d personally love to see the league shift to three points for a regulation win, providing teams some incentive to push more aggressively late in games featuring a tied scoreline and rewarding teams capable of winning in regulation. As a bettor, though, I’m happy to try and ride this trend until the numbers are adjusted.

28.4% of all games played this season have gone to overtime, suggesting +320 is a solid price for any matchup (23.8% implied probability). While I would agree this trend will slow down to some extent, there are obviously some games that appear more likely to go to overtime, and tonight’s matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and Columbus Blue Jackets seems to fit that bill.

After a tough-luck loss versus the red-hot Boston Bruins Saturday evening, the Canadiens enter this matchup in the midst of a three-game losing skid. I’m confident we will see them offer a sharp and urgent effort in this matchup, and they will have Jakub Dobes, who has been rock-solid with a +3.4 GSAx in eight appearances this season, starting in goal.

The Blue Jackets have played five straight one-goal games, with three of those matchups requiring overtime. In the month of December, they have played to a 53.47% expected goal share and have continued to receive strong play in goal from Jet Greaves, who holds a +7.9 GSAx rating in 11 appearances this season.

A hotly-contested, close-knit affair seems likely in this particular spot, and I like the chances that it will be a one-goal game at worst heading to the third period. If we can hit this bet one in three times we are doing great, and considering our price of +320, I’m happy to ride with this fun trend in this spot.

Edmonton Oilers @ Buffalo Sabres

Oilers moneyline odds	-155
Sabres moneyline odds	+135
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-120), Under 6.5 goals (+100)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• The Oilers came through with an exciting overtime win over the Carolina Hurricanes Saturday evening, cashing our same-game parlay at +300. We will be featuring these pieces consistently moving forward for exciting Canadian matchups for those that are interested.
• While we will take any win at +300, I’m not exactly going to pretend it was the prettiest win for the Oilers and a genius bet by myself. The vast majority of Edmonton’s lineup was heavily outplayed in Saturday’s matchup, but thanks to an excellent showing from Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, coupled with one of Stuart Skinner’s best starts of the season, they were able to get a much-needed win. 
• The Sabres were also able to win a high-scoring matchup in overtime Saturday evening, as they closed a three-goal deficit versus the Detroit Red Wings.
• Rasmus Dahlin recorded two assists in his return to play Saturday, a very lovable storyline after the Sabres captain travelled home to spend time with his wife, who recently received heart surgery.
• While nobody is really going to try and defend the Sabres organization, they have had some really tough luck with injuries this season, and their current injury list is quite significant. Zach Benson, Michael Kesselring, Jason Zucker, Jiril Kulich, and Josh Norris are all expected to miss this game and are all noteworthy skaters.
• Zach Hyman returned to the Oilers’ lineup Saturday evening, recording an assist and 11 hits in 23:10 of ice time. Hyman mainly skated alongside Connor McDavid on the Oilers’ top line in the matchup, though as has often been the case, head coach Kris Knoblauch shuffled his units quite consistently throughout the game.

Vancouver Canucks @ Florida Panthers

Canucks moneyline odds	+225
Panthers moneyline odds	-275
Game total	Over 6 goals (-125), Under 6 goals (+105)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• This is a really tough spot for the Canucks, who will be playing the final leg of the dreaded Carolina, Tampa Bay, Florida swing that Western Conference sides typically handle in one trip. The Canucks will be playing for the third time in four nights, having managed a 6-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday evening.
• While a 9-9-2 record is not overly impressive, the Canucks deserve some credit for the resiliency that they have shown this season. Vancouver has had arguably the worst injury situation in the NHL this season, as it has routinely had 7-8 NHL regulars out of the lineup, including key bodies such as Quinn Hughes, Conor Garland, and Thatcher Demko.
• Garland was injured once again in Sunday’s matchup and may join Filip Chytil, Nils Hoglander, Teddy Blueger, and Demko on the sidelines in this matchup.
• The Panthers are expected to go with a top line of Mackie Samoskevich (promoted due to Eetu Luostarinen’s injury), Anton Lundell, and Brad Marchand in this matchup. Marchand leads the team with 21 points and 12 goals in 17 games this season.
• The Panthers have confirmed that Sergei Bobrovsky will start in goal in this matchup. For the time being, I actually prefer betting the Panthers at worse numbers with Daniil Tarasov in goal, as he has been razor-sharp and not getting any respect in the market.

Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins

Hurricanes moneyline odds	-190
Bruins moneyline odds	+160
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (+100), Under 6.5 (-120)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• Backing the Bruins to win every game this season would have yielded a +38.4% ROI based on consensus closing betting odds. Oddsmakers have been reluctant to give much credit to the Bruins this season, due to a combination of preseason power-rating and underlying metrics.
• One key reason the Bruins are such heavy underdogs Monday is the loss of number-one defender Charlie McAvoy, who took a puck in the face Saturday versus the Canadiens. Hampus Lindholm overtook McAvoy’s spot on the top power-play unit at Monday’s morning skate.
• Pyotr Kochetkov is expected to start in goal for Carolina. Kochetkov holds a .908 save percentage and a 1.92 GAA this season across four appearances.
• Over the last five games, the Hurricanes hold a 60.21% expected goal share and have generated 4.33 xGF/60. They have always been an analytical darling but have generally scored fewer goals than the underlying metrics suggest they should. With more skill than ever in the lineup this season though, they have scored 3.67 goals per game, which ranks second in the NHL.
• The Bruins rank fifth in the NHL in scoring 3.35 goals per game, which is certainly the biggest surprise surrounding the team.
• Many observers, like myself, thought Morgan Geekie’s 33-goal output last season was unlikely to be replicated. Geekie has proven a lot of us wrong so far this season, as he leads the team with 12 goals in 20 games. Geekie is priced at +155 to score in this tough matchup.

Los Angeles Kings @ Washington Capitals

Kings moneyline odds	+105
Capitals moneyline odds	-125
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-110), Under 5.5 (-110)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• Backing the Capitals to win every game this season would have yielded a -18.9% ROI. They held a solid power rating entering the year after leading the Eastern Conference in points last season and hold strong underlying numbers in even strength play.
• While I would completely agree with the analytics that suggest the Capitals have played well at even strength, their special teams have been a mess. Their penalty kill ranks 27th in success rate, while their power play ranks 30th.
• Pierre-Luc Dubois was arguably one of the Capitals’ most important skaters last season, as he fared very well defensively in tough matchups versus opponents’ top lines while contributing 66 points. His absence from the lineup has been a key issue for the Capitals, even if his offensive contributions this season were disappointing.
• John Carlson missed Saturday’s matchup with the New Jersey Devils and is considered a game-time decision ahead of Monday’s matchup.
• Thanks to their current four-game winning streak, the Kings are now on top of the Pacific Division, in a year that many thought the team might regress. Their defensive core does appear to be worse than it was last season, but they still have a deep forward corps loaded with strong two-way players. 
• Drew Doughty will miss this matchup and is labelled as week-to-week after suffering a lower-body injury Saturday night in Ottawa.
• Charlie Lindgren will start in goal for the Capitals. Lindgren holds an .878 save percentage and 3.59 GAA this season, but those who are most familiar with the team would not agree that he has been as bad as those numbers suggest.

Utah Mammoth @ Anaheim Ducks

Mammoth moneyline odds	-115
Ducks moneyline odds	-105
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 (-110)
Time	10 p.m. ET

• The Ducks offence has fallen flat over the last three games, generating just four goals in those matchups. However, the Avalanche and Wild did an excellent job defensively in those games, and I’m still a believer that the Ducks’ strong offensive start is legitimate. 
• The Mammoth are in a similar spot as the Ducks in being a talented young side hoping to snap a lengthy playoff drought, but have also fallen upon hard times in losing four of their last five games.
• Backup goaltender Petr Mrazek started Saturday’s matchup in Minnesota for the Ducks, so it’s safe to assume that Lukas Dostal will start Monday. Dostal has been fantastic once again this season, helping mask some pretty shaky defensive play from his side.
• My personal opinion is that this looks like a tough game to handicap from a sides perspective, but that this should be an one of the better games on tonight’s slate.