While it’s certainly not the style of play that Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube envisions for his team, the Leafs’ have played in a ton of high-scoring, high-event matchups this season, and Wednesday’s game versus an exciting young Utah Mammoth side offers a strong spot for us to debut our new NHL same game parlay series.
The official picks for my Mammoth vs. Maple Leafs same game parlay which consists of five legs are:
- Logan Cooley over 0.5 points
- Dylan Guenther over 0.5 points
- Auston Matthews over 0.5 points
- William Nylander over 0.5 points
- William Nylander over 2.5 shots on goal
Mammoth vs. Maple Leafs same game parlay
Nick’s Mammoth vs. Maple Leafs SGP
Technically backing Cooley and Guenther each to record a point compiles two legs of our parlay, but we will break them down together given the correlation between the two, and our hopes of cashing both of these legs on one goal.
The offensive upside of the Mammoth’s top two lines is among the best in the NHL, and having two comparably excellent units creates line-matching nightmares for many opponents. Backing the top-line duo of Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz to record points in this matchup is also tempting, but there seems to be more value in backing the Cooley/Guenther stack considering the price and likelihood that they will skate in more winnable matchups.
In 131.2 minutes of even strength play this season, Utah’s second line of Guenther, Cooley, and JJ Peterka holds a 58.6% expected goal share and scored 5.04 goals per 60. Among units that have played at least 90 minutes together this season, no trio has produced goals at a higher rate.
Head coach Craig Berube will likely line-match Auston Matthews line and his top shutdown defensive pairing of Simon Benoit and Jake McCabe against the Keller line as much as possible, which opens the door for Guenther’s line to do some damage.
Cooley and Guenther also pair-up on the Mammoth’s strong top power-play unit, where Cooley will often look to set up Guenther’s elite one-timer from the left circle.
The Leafs have allowed 3.62 goals against per game this season, which is the fifth-worst mark in the NHL. Berube will continue pressing hard for his side to clean things up defensively, but at this point it seems that its Toronto’s personnel that is powering cause it’s defensive shortcomings.
The Leafs have struggled to fill the void left by Mitch Marner on the top line alongside Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies on the top unit this season, but Berube has generally not shown much interest in stacking Nylander and Matthews given the lack of balance it creates.
With the Leafs trailing by three goals after two periods in Monday’s matchup versus the Pittsburgh Penguins, Berube opted to stack Matthews, Nylander, and Knies on one unit for the third period, which led to immediate results.
Matthews, Nylander and Knies combined for six points in the third period versus the Penguins, and the unit held a 70.3% expected goal share. Playing the three together obviously hurts the upside of the team’s second line, but it is certainly favourable to the chances of production for Matthews and Nylander, and Berube did keep his newly formed top unit together at Tuesday’s practice.
The Mammoth have been a better than average side from a defensive perspective this season, but will be playing the second leg of a travelling back-to-back with backup goaltender Vitek Vanecek set to start. Utah has allowed 3.16 xGA/60 this season, which is slightly better than league average.
Nylander has not been generating as many shots on target this season as he did last year, and that is reflected by today’s price of -120 for over 2.5 shots on target, given that throughout much of last season his shot prop was set at 3.5.
Now that online sportsbooks have adjusted to Nylander’s lesser shot totals, this seems to be a good time to buy-low as we target the idea that Berube’s newly formed top trio will be highly effective, and will likely receive hefty usage given the lack of balance further down the lineup card.