It will be a huge weekend for hockey fans, as the NHL will follow a 13-game Saturday slate with an abnormally large eight-game card on Sunday.
In this article, I’ll outline my favourite two bets based on Friday’s opening prices at online sportsbooks, and touch on some game notes from the matchups involving Canadian teams.
Oct. 25 best NHL bets
Anaheim Ducks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning over 5.5 goals: -130 @ bet365
Ducks vs. Lightning over 5.5 goals
The Lightning have gotten off to an ugly 1-4-2 start, which has been one of the more surprising storylines in the very early stages of this NHL season, given the strong continuity of the roster and consistency they have offered under head coach Jon Cooper.
During the Lightning’s current four-game losing skid they have scored an average of just 1.75 goals per game, and held combined average totals of just 4.5 goals per game.
While the many of the Lightning’s most recent matchups have been quite low-scoring, a low total of 5.5 still does not seem overly warranted in a matchup versus the Anaheim Ducks.
As expected, the Ducks have played a much more up-tempo, offence-based style under head coach Joel Quenneville this season. They feature an underrated top three offensive units, and have scored 3.71 goals per game this season.
Anaheim’s underlying results agree with the eye-test in suggesting that it will likely take large steps forward offensively this season. The Ducks have generated 4.01 xGF/60 this season, which is the second-highest mark in the NHL.
While the Ducks’ overall game does seem to considerably improved relative to last season, they are still a team that will likely suffer through some growing pains defensively. They have allowed 3.31 xGA/60 this season, and enter this matchup after allowing five goals against to a lethargic Bruins offence Thursday
Things haven’t yet clicked offensively for the Lightning this season, but they feature a number of skaters that have proven to be elite NHL producers, such as Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Jake Guentzel.
The Ducks should be able to generate a respectable offensive total in Saturday’s matchup, but I’m not sold on their chances of suppressing a Lightning offence that is due for improved production in the near future.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Florida Panthers – Knights moneyline: -105 @ bet365
Golden Knights moneyline
Playing more hockey than any other team over the last three seasons, as well as key injuries to captain Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk, is seemingly getting to the Panthers. After a 3-0-0 start to the season amid a soft schedule, they have lost four of their last five games.
To this point, the Panthers have still played just one game versus an opponent that qualified for the postseason last year. They hold a -6 goal differential, and a 53.2% expected goal share, which are both not overly impressive marks given the soft schedule.
The Knights are dealing with some key injuries of their own, as Noah Hanifin, Mark Stone, and Adin Hill are currently sidelined due to injury. While those injuries are significant, what’s left of the Knights roster still looks quite convincing.
Jack Eichel has put up 16 points in the first seven games of the season while offering dominant results defensively. Eichel has been well-supported by Mitch Marner, Pavel Dorofeyev, and Ivan Barbashev, who have all been in exceptional form so far this season.The Knights have been off since earning a 4-1 win over the Carolina Hurricanes on Monday night, a game in which they did not have Stone or Hanifin, yet still managed to comfortably beat a Hurricanes side that is 6-1-0.
It might not feel overly fun to fade a team that has won back-to-back Stanley Cups, but it seems that Florida is potentially being overvalued based on its previous success currently.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
| Sabres moneyline odds | +150 |
| Maple Leafs moneyline odds | -180 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (+105), Under 6.5 (-125) |
- This will be the Toronto leg of a home-and-home series between these Atlantic Division rivals.
- It’s interesting to see that the Sabres are only +105 underdogs in Friday’s matchup, but are priced at +150 in Saturday’s leg. Home-ice advantage is obviously part of the reason, but it does feel like backing the Sabres in tomorrow’s leg at +150 holds more value, given that KeyBank Center will be loaded with Maple Leafs fans Friday, and that Anthony Stolarz is starting Friday’s matchup for Toronto.
- Since Stolarz is starting Friday’s game, Cayden Primeau will likely start Saturday’s matchup. Primeau struggled to a -9.5 GSAx rating last season with the Montreal Canadiens and held a -1.6 GSAx rating in his Leafs debut.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Vancouver Canucks
| Canadiens moneyline odds | -105 |
| Canucks moneyline odds | -115 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 goals (-110) |
- The Canadiens will be playing for the third time in four nights in this matchup after splitting their back-to-back in Alberta.
- Preseason Calder Trophy favourite Ivan Demidov has worked his way onto the Canadiens’ second line after starting the season on the third unit. He’s recorded six points in the first nine games of the year, and has shown flashes of brilliance offensively as expected.
- Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield have combined for 22 points so far this season.
- With Filip Chytil and Teddy Blueger on the IR, the Canucks’ depth down the middle is currently a large concern.
- Elias Pettersson has recorded just four points in eight games this season. He has looked better over the last three games, and the Canucks will certainly be desperate to see their highest-salaried skater perform at a higher level given their severe lack of depth at the critical centre ice position.
- Canucks bolstered their offensive core by acquiring Lukas Reichel for a fourth-round pick from the Chicago Blackhawks on Friday afternoon.
Ottawa Senators vs. Washington Capitals
| Senators moneyline odds | +105 |
| Capitals moneyline odds | -125 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-125), Under 5.5 (+105) |
- The Capitals will be playing back-to-back following a date in Columbus Friday evening. Logan Thompson has been confirmed as Friday’s starter, which means Charlie Lindgren (+2.4 GSAx, .932 SV %) will likely start Saturday’s matchup.
- The Senators will be playing for the sixth time since Brady Tkachuk’s injury. They are 2-2-1 during his absence so far.
- The Capitals may be without Rasmus Sandin, who will miss Friday’s contest and is considered day-to-day. Sandin has been an important piece for the Capitals over the last two seasons, offering strong results on the team’s second defensive pairing.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Seattle Kraken
- Seattle wrapped up a lengthy six-game eastern road trip with a 3-0 victory on Thursday in Winnipeg. It played to a record of 2-2-2 during the road trip, and ranks second in the Pacific Division with 10 points.
- While the Oilers‘ 4-3-1 start has not been overly impressive, they started 4-5-1 last season before making their way to the Stanley Cup Final. Unless their regular season is entirely dominant or absolutely awful, they will likely enter the playoffs with a price close to +600.
- After a three-point night on Thursday, Connor McDavid is suddenly up to 11 points in the first handful of games of the season, despite the fact that he’s generally not been at his best.
- Jared McCann remains day-to-day, and his status for this matchup is important from a handicapping perspective. McCann has recorded three goals and four points in his first five games of the season, and is a strong defensive skater that had been playing on the team’s top line.