In this article, we’ll outline our best Hurricanes vs Golden Knights prediction for Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams, so you can place a winning wager with any of the best NHL betting sites.
Throughout the first three rounds of the playoffs, the Hurricanes did not face any legitimate adversity while cruising into the Final with a record of 12-1. They got their backs up against the wall for the first time in Game 2, as they were staring down an 0-2 hole heading back to Vegas before authoring a two-goal comeback late in the third period to eventually win what was another fantastic matchup in overtime.
Game 3 is priced as a pick’em, while the Knights are now priced as +120 underdogs to win the series after beginning the series priced at +125.
We narrowly lost our Game 2 selection on Frederik Andersen to record under 21.5 saves, moving to 1-1 on the series. Our Game 3 best bet lies in backing the first period to feature under 1.5 total goals at +105.
Hurricanes vs Golden Knights Game 3 Prediction: First Period Under 1.5 Goals +105 (Play to +100)
1st period under 1.5 goals
Our first write-up of the series came in on the game to feature over 5.5 total goals, and we would have been rewarded for sticking with that take for Game 2, as it was ultimately another barnburner. In a series between two stingy juggernauts that was expected to feature excellent attention to detail defensively, we have seen 16 goals throughout Games 1 and 2.
Our expectation was always that things would really tighten up as we got into the later stages of this series, and it seems logical to bet into that belief entering Game 3 after the majority of Game 2 was much more low-event than the final score depicted.
Carolina’s two-goal rally was particularly surprising given that it had been struggling to generate many meaningful opportunities to close out the deficit in the second period and early stages of the third. The Hurricanes generated 3.21 expected goals in the game, while Vegas generated 2.55.
Games 1 and 2 of this postseason have averaged 5.95 combined goals, while Game 3 has averaged 5.5 combined goals. The trends tell us that, on average, series do become more defensive as teams start to feel more comfortable with how to check their opponent, and that logic could be likely to continue as the series shifts to Vegas.
Carolina has allowed just 1.33 goals against per game on the road this postseason. It will likely look to employ a simple, well-structured game early on in this matchup, and while the Knights are the best offensive team it has played this postseason, it still doesn’t feel as though the Hurricanes’ defensive reads have been quite as sharp as we have typically seen.
While betting the game to feature under 5.5 goals at +105 is a reasonable option, taking the same price for the first period to feature under 1.5 goals is my preferred option, as I have a little more conviction towards the idea of a cagey start to this pivotal matchup.
Hurricanes vs Golden Knights Odds
| Hurricanes Moneyline Odds | -110 |
| Golden Knights Moneyline Odds | -110 |
| Puck Line Odds | Hurricanes -1.5 (+230) Golden Knights +1.5 (-280) |
| Series Winner Odds | Hurricanes (-140), Golden Knights (+120) |
| Goal Total | Over 5.5 Goals (-125), Under 5.5 Goals (+105) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes’ in-zone defensive structure was altogether quite improved in Game 2, after they asked Frederik Andersen to make some extremely tough saves following some lapses in defensive zone coverage in Game 1. Brett Howden made Carolina pay with two goals off the rush to stake the Knights a 2-0 lead, and at that point in the game, those individual moments of excellence were two of the Knights’ only meaningful chances in the game.
Given how long Carolina spent trailing in the game, its offensive push wasn’t overly convincing, and the Knights’ excellent defensive zone structure has generally been effective thus far in the series. The Hurricanes have generated only 2.0 chances per game off the cycle, and 8.0 chances per game off of the forecheck and faceoffs (Per Dimitri Filipovic).
Head coach Rod Brind’Amour finally shuffled his top-nine upfront while trailing in Game 2, after another fairly unconvincing start to the game from the trio of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis. He bumped Jordan Martinook up to the top line and moved Jarvis alongside Jordan Staal and Nikolaj Ehlers. As you would expect though, Brind’Amour did not shake up the trio of Jordan Blake, Logan Stankoven and Taylor Hall, who had another strong performance in Game 3, including a critical goal from Stankoven.
Carolina’s power play broke out with the first two special teams goals of the series, moving its success rate up to 14.5% this postseason. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes’ excellent, highly aggressive penalty kill has silenced the Knights strong power play thus far in the series and has now succeeded on 93.3% of opportunities this postseason.
Both teams consistently employed the high flip out of the defensive zone in Game 2, which has been fairly common theme from Cup-winning rosters dating back to the Pittsburgh Penguins’ 2016 and 2017 teams that went back-to-back. It reduces the risk of a breakdown versus a heavy forecheck and, as we saw in Game 2, can force defenders into awkward decisions deep in the neutral zone.
After stopping 23 of 26 shots faced in Game 1, Andersen now holds a +8.1 GSAx rating and .917 save percentage this postseason. In similar fashion to Game 1, it’s hard to say that Andersen was truly at fault on any of the Knights’ three goals, despite finishing with another well below-average save percentage.
Betting Vegas Golden Knights
While ultimately blowing a two-goal lead in Game 2 hurts, in part due to a controversial no-goal call, the Knights still have to be feeling quite good about their performances in Games 1 and 2. Vegas did a fairly good job of limiting the Hurricanes’ true Grade “A” scoring chances off extended sequences in the offensive zone, and has done well to make many of the chances coming Andersen’s way legitimate opportunities to score.
Per EvolvingHockey, the Knights have allowed only 2.60 xGA/60 throughout the first two games of the series, versus a Hurricanes side that generated 4.51 xGF/60 in the first three rounds of the postseason. Prior to this series, Carolina’s average shot quality had been considerably improved relative to years past, but the Knights have done a fairly good job of making some of the concerns from previous Hurricanes postseason failures come to fruition thus far.
The Knights will face a more difficult challenge in Game 3 if Brayden McNabb is unable to play; however, after the top-pair defender left Game 2 after catching a heavy shot in the face. Vegas has not yet made an official confirmation towards McNabb’s status at the time of writing, but it seems likely that he will be unavailable, meaning Kaeden Korczak or Ben Hutton will draw into the lineup.
The most obvious concern for the Knights following two relatively strong performances has to be the struggles of their power play, which has not looked overly threatening while holding a 0% success rate. The Hurricanes’ penalty kill has done an excellent job of denying zone entries all postseason long and has made great reads on when to trigger on contested and/or bobbled pucks thus far in the series.
Like Andersen, Hart’s numbers so far in the series are not good, but reviewing Carolina’s goals one by one his play doesn’t seem to be entirely concerning. He holds a +5.3 GSAx rating and .915 save percentage this postseason, and it still feels safe to expect him to make the saves he is supposed to moving forward.
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