The Stanley Cup will be at Rogers Place tonight, as the Florida Panthers are now just one game away from lifting hockey’s ultimate prize for 2024. Generally speaking, it’s astronomically difficult to come back from a 3-0 series deficit, but the Edmonton Oilers won’t go away easily and will look to keep their season alive tonight on home ice. Let’s break down what it’ll take to start to reverse the momentum in this series.
Bet on Panthers vs. Oilers GM 4
The moneyline favourites are the Oilers, coming in between -113 and -120 on the top Canadian Sportsbooks.
Panthers vs. Oilers Best Odds
| Panthers Moneyline Odds | +107 @ Betano |
| Oilers Moneyline Odds | -113 @ Pinnacle |
| Puckline odds | Oilers -1.5 (+232) @ Pinnacle Panthers +1.5 (-256) @ Betano |
| Series odds | Oilers +1100, Panthers +2200 @ Bet365 |
| Total | Over 5.5 goals (+102) @ Pinnacle Under 5.5 goals (-114) @ Pinnacle |
| Time/Date | June 15, 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: CBC, Sportsnet, TVA Sports Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
Last Matchup
The Oilers came out flying in this one, dominating the shot count and the overall momentum for the majority of the first period. However, it was the Panthers who struck first, with Sam Reinhart creating a perfect redirection in the slot during a 4-on-4 sequence to put Florida up. Warren Foegele equalized for Edmonton early in the second period, but there were signs of a momentum shift happening as the minutes wore down.
At the midway point of the second, the dam broke. Vladimir Tarasenko buried the result of a retrieved turnover at the nine-minute mark, Sam Bennett capped off a relentless forecheck to add insurance four minutes later, and Aleksander Barkov wrapped up a quick counter two minutes after that. Things felt over for Edmonton from here, but a good third period brought them back into the game. Philip Broberg scored what seemed like a consolation goal at first, but when Ryan McLeod added another, the Oilers felt like they were back in the fight. Ultimately, though, Florida was able to protect their house for just long enough and secure the win.
Betting Florida Panthers (15-5 SU, 10-10 ATS, 8-12 o/u)
After a relatively quick exit from last year’s Stanley Cup Final, the Panthers are just one win away from flipping the script and winning the Stanley Cup for the first time in their history. Needless to say, it’s exciting times in Sunrise and the surrounding area in Florida.
A lot of storylines can be gleaned from their win on Thursday. One can look to the continued excellence of Sergei Bobrovsky, who has all but clinched the Conn Smythe Trophy so long as they get this thing across the finish line with minimal worry. One can credit the team for not letting their travel disruptions on Wednesday impact their routine, though that felt like a bit of a forced side story.
Personally, I have to give a lot of credit to captain Aleksander Barkov, who went from potentially out of the lineup to a major difference maker, scoring the game-winning goal, adding an assist, and going 12-for-19 at the faceoff dot in Game 3. It wasn’t the most dominant night of his career, but it was a good one in tough circumstances, and efforts like that are why they’re so close to the mountaintop.
Betting Edmonton Oilers (12-9 SU, 7-14 ATS, 10-11 o/u)
What the Oilers have ahead of them now is not impossible. In fact, if there’s a league where you might feel a bit of hope at the 3-0 mark, it’s the NHL. Across the major North American sports leagues where best-of-seven series exist – the NHL, MLB, and the NBA – four of the five comebacks have happened here. In fact, one even happened in the Stanley Cup Final, with the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs coming back against the Detroit Red Wings. The 1975 Islanders, 2010 Flyers, and 2014 Kings have also accomplished the unlikely feat.
Unlikely is the key word, though, as the success rate remains extremely low. Those four teams come out of a pool of 211 who have fallen behind 3-0 at some point, meaning the conversion rate is a little under 2%. Even if you include teams that forced game seven and lost, the pool only expands to ten – meaning about a 5% shot of forcing his all the way to Game 7.
Focusing on the strength of the teams themselves, our very own Andy MacNeil is a bit more bullish, giving Edmonton a 5% shot of getting the needed wins under the CSB model.
Projected Panthers vs. Oilers Lines
| Today’s Florida Panthers Lines | Today’s Edmonton Oilers Lines |
|---|---|
| Forwards Evan Rodrigues – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart Carter Verhaeghe – Sam Bennett – Matthew Tkachuk Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Vladimir Tarasenko Steven Lorentz – Kevin Stenlund – Kyle Okposo Defence Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad Niko Mikkola – Brandon Montour Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Dmitry Kulikov Starting In Goal Sergei Bobrovsky Playoffs: 15-3-2, 2.07 GAA, 0.916 SV% Season: 36-17-4, 2.37 GAA, 0.915 SV% | Forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman Warren Foegele – Leon Drasaitl – Evander Kane Mattias Janmark – Adam Henrique – Connor Brown Dylan Holloway – Ryan McLeod – Derek Ryan Defence Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard Darnell Nurse – Philip Broberg Brett Kulak – Cody Ceci Starting In Goal Stuart Skinner Playoffs: 11-7-1, 2.62 GAA, 0.893 SV% Season: 36-16-5, 2.62 GAA, 0.905 SV% |
Expect the unexpected with the Oilers lineup tonight, with all sorts of debate as to what Edmonton will do. Will Evander Kane draw back in? Could Sam Gagner lace them up as an attempt to invigorate the group? A lot is on the table for Edmonton with their backs against the wall. We’ll see what they do with it.
As for Florida, I would expect little movement. Why fix what hasn’t been broken?
Sergei Bobrovsky over 25.5 saves
Panthers vs. Oilers Injury Concerns
Evander Kane missed Game 3 with a nagging undisclosed injury, which has kept him from even sitting on the bench for extended periods of time. Kane has been battling a sports hernia for the past several months, so suspicions immediately head in that direction. We’ll see if he draws back in tonight.
The Panthers seem very worse for wear, but no one is at the point of taking themselves out of the lineup just yet.
NHL Betting Trends
- Florida has won six of the last ten games between these two teams, including all of the last five. The Panthers have a 7-3 edge on the puckline across the ten-game sample, and the under has hit on the total goals line in six of ten games.
- The Oilers are 5-5 in their last ten games, with a 3-7 record against the puckline and total goals line.
- The Panthers are 8-2 in their last ten games, with a 4-6 record against the puckline and just two overs against the total goals line.
NHL Player Prop Trends
- Connor McDavid is the most productive player on the Oilers over the last ten games, scoring thirteen points through three goals and a team-leading ten assists. He also shares the team lead in shots on goal with 38.
- McDavid shares that lead with Zach Hyman, who has the most goals over Edmonton’s last ten games with four. Meanwhile, Leon Draisaitl went from early Conn Smythe favourite to a surprising no-show, with two points in Edmonton’s last five and five points in their last ten.
- Sam Bennett leads the way for the Panthers in their last ten games, with a team-leading five goals and nine points. Matthew Tkachuk has the most goals (32) and assists (6, tied with Anton Lundell).
Panthers vs. Oilers Predictions
- The Oilers need emptied tanks from their megastars tonight. Connor McDavid delivered his share with two assists and five shots last game – I expect another clearing of the shots on goal line (-125 at Betano) at minimum.
- Leon Draisaitl is the man to really watch here, though, as he desperately needs a big night. After scoring 25 points across 13 consecutive games to start the playoffs, he has just three in his last eight games, including no points in this series. His shots on goal line is best found on Caesars at -137 for over 2.5, and you can get him for a goal on FanDuel at +165.
- As you can likely gather, I’m expecting floodgates from Edmonton, whether successful or not. As such, look to Sergei Bobrovsky over 25.5 saves on Betano, at -125. I would be shocked if this one wasn’t a hit in this situation, as it would likely require an injury, a goalie pull, or a game we talk about in disappointment for years. As long as he’s healthy and decent, I expect Edmonton to pump the shot count, even if not all attempts are of goal-scoring quality.
