MLB Betting Preview (April 16): Yankees vs. Blue Jays Predictions

The Toronto Blue Jays are back in action Tuesday for the second contest of a three-game series with the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre.

Toronto took the series opener, 3-1, on Monday backed by an impressive pitching performance from starter Chris Bassitt, who allowed just one run over 6 1/3 innings of work while striking out five. With the win, Toronto moved a game above .500 and pushed its winning streak to three games.

Bet on Yankees vs. Blue Jays

NYY -116
TOR +100

New York was fortunate that the Jays didn’t do more damage on Monday after starting pitcher Luis Gil walked seven batters over five innings. Only 51 of Gil’s 99 pitches were strikes, and a wild pitch in the second inning allowed Toronto to score one of its three runs against the right-hander. Gil also walked in another run.

Let’s take a look at the best game odds available for Tuesday’s clash between these two American League East foes:

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best odds

Yankees Moneyline Odds-106 @ Pinnacle
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds+102 @ FanDuel
Runline OddsYankees -1.5 (+150) @ Pinnacle
Blue Jays +1.5 (-162) @ FanDuel
Over/UnderOver 8.5 runs (-110) @ PowerPlay
Under 8.5 runs (-106) @ Pinnacle
Time/DateApril 16, 7:07 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: Sportsnet, SN1

Betting New York Yankees (12-5 SU, 7-10 ATS, 5-11-1 o/u)

The Yankees have suffered back-to-back losses for the first time this season after having their bats silenced by Bassitt on Monday despite several players in the lineup boasting impressive career numbers against the righty. New York still ranks in the upper half of the majors in several offensive statistical categories, including on-base percentage (third – .347), home runs (eighth – 19), runs per game (13th – 4.7), and OPS (.738 – ninth).

Second-year shortstop Anthony Volpe has carried the team offensively, slashing .373/.464/.542 with two homers and six stolen bases in seven attempts. Outfielder Juan Soto is also doing damage, boasting a .972 OPS with three home runs and a team-leading 15 RBIs.

The Yankees pitching staff has also thrived early in the season despite not having the services of staff ace Gerrit Cole, who will likely be out until June with an elbow issue. They’re holding opponents to just 3.6 runs per game (third in the majors) and have a staff ERA of 2.93 (also third). New York’s relievers are also getting the job done, posting a combined 2.38 ERA (fourth) while recording a league-leading nine saves. Of those nine saves, six can be credited to Clay Holmes, who hasn’t allowed a run in eight appearances.

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (9-8 SU, 10-7 ATS, 7-10 o/u)

The Blue Jays were able to muster just enough offence Monday to get the job done, scoring three runs on just four hits. Catcher Alejandro Kirk accounted for two of those knocks and he now has four hits over his last two contests after a slow start. He’ll have to remain hot to ensure he continues to get a considerable amount of playing time with catcher Danny Jansen being activated off the injured list Monday now that he’s recovered from his wrist injury.

Relievers Jordan Romano (elbow) and Erik Swanson (forearm) also appear very close to being activated off injured reserve and could see action as early as Tuesday. Having their closer and setup man back in the fold would be very good news for the Blue Jays, who have relied on Yimi Garcia and Chad Green in high-leverage situations early in the season. Both Garcia and Green have been excellent in their elevated roles, which should bode well for Toronto’s bullpen depth moving forward.

Yusei Kikuchi over 5.5 strikeouts


Probable pitchers

New York: LHP Carlos Rodon (1-0, 2.87 ERA, 7.47 K/9, 1.53 WHIP)

With Cole out, the Yankees have needed Rodon to step up and he’s done exactly that. The lefty has been solid across three outings, not allowing more than two earned runs in a single start. Rodon’s fastball is averaging around 95 mph and has an expected run value in the 93rd percentile, according to Baseball Savant. He uses his four-seamer roughly 56% of the time, so the Jays will see plenty of fastballs. Rodon also mixes in a changeup, cutter, slider, and curveball. Historically, Rodon has pitched well against Toronto, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.70 ERA while holding Blue Jays hitters to a .261 batting average across four career starts.

Toronto: LHP Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 2.30 ERA, 11.49 K/9, 1.28 WHIP)

Kikuchi struggled in his first appearance of the young season against the Tampa Bay Rays, but he’s bounced right back with two impressive outings against the Yankees and Seattle Mariners, allowing just one earned run while striking out 16 across the pair of starts. On April 5 in the Bronx, the southpaw held the Yankees to just four hits over 5 1/3 scoreless innings while fanning seven. Kikuchi ranks in the 89th percentile in inducing ground balls (58% rate) and his devastating curveball ranks in the 98th percentile for breaking pitch run value, according to Baseball Savant.


It should be a beautiful evening in Toronto with clear skies but cool temperatures around 10 C expected around first pitch should keep the retractable dome closed.

  • New York is 7-3 this season when entering a game favoured by -115 or more on the moneyline.
  • The Yankees have played under the total in 11 of their first 17 games (64% hit rate).
  • The under is 5-1 in Toronto’s last six games.
  • Rodon has struggled with his control, issuing two or more walks in four straight starts dating back to last season. He’s -190 (best odds at Bet99) to record over 1.5 walks.
  • Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres has hit safely in four straight games and has a .400 batting average in 25 career at-bats against Kikuchi. He’s -213 (best odds at Betano) to record over 0.5 hits.
  • Blue Jays outfielder George Springer has stolen bases in back-to-back games and opposing base stealers have a 90% success rate against Rodon over the past two seasons despite him being a lefty. Springer is +475 (best odds at NorthStar Bets) to steal a bag.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions

  • Under 8.5 runs (-106 @ Pinnacle): Both teams are trending to the under recently and we have two really solid starting pitchers who are in good form on the mound Tuesday. The Blue Jays have struggled with their bats, averaging just 3.8 runs per game (22nd in the majors) overall this season, and 4.25 runs per game in four contests against the Yankees this season. Toronto scored just three runs in three of those four previous meetings with New York.
  • Springer under 1.5 total bases (-130 @ bet365): Springer has just one hit (a double) in 15 career at-bats (.067 batting average) with four strikeouts against Rodon and he’s off to a slow start overall with a .215 batting average and .667 OPS. He’s also been held hitless in six of his first 13 games to start the new campaign.