In this article, we’ll outline our best Golden Knights vs Hurricanes prediction for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams, so you can place a winning wager with any of the best NHL betting sites.
There seemingly aren’t many neutral observers that are excited to see either of the Hurricanes or Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup Final, but the quality of play should certainly be at a level worthy of a championship series.
The Hurricanes have coasted into this series with a dominant 12-1 record this postseason and have outscored opponents 42-21. Due to their elite underlying profile, oddsmakers have given the Hurricanes plenty of respect all season long, and that remains the case entering the final as bet365 offers Carolina a 60% chance of winning the series.
After a shocking 4-0 sweep over the Colorado Avalanche, the Knights are now 19-4-1 under head coach John Tortorella. While Tortorella deserves some credit, the most significant change relative to the majority of the regular season has been the play of Carter Hart, who has provided the team with elite goaltending this postseason.
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes Prediction: Over 5.5 Goals -120 (Play to -125)
Over 5.5 goals
Without question, this Stanley Cup Final pits two elite defensive teams against one another, and it wouldn’t be shocking if a potential Game 6 or 7 were to feature a total of a flat five, and for us to write up some articles backing the under later on in the series.
Both sides feature entirely different systems in the defensive zone, and both philosophies have led to strong results this postseason, with the Golden Knights having allowed 2.38 goals per game and the Hurricanes having allowed 2.38 goals per game.
With respect to the defensive play of both teams though, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a more high-event Game 1 than oddsmakers are expecting with a low total of 5.5 with these two powerhouses looking to set an aggressive tone.
For a large portion of mainstream NHL media, one of the greater misconceptions entering the NHL postseason was the all-too-common belief that this is the same old Hurricanes team. Many of the strengths from previous years under Rod Brind’Amour remain in place, but they hold much greater offensive upside overall, specifically in terms of their ability to create high-quality chances off the rush.
Carolina has generated 4.51 xGF/60 this postseason, which leads all 16 postseason teams by a huge margin. They scored 3.55 goals per game in the regular season, which ranked second only to the Avalanche.
Following the Olympic break, the Ottawa Senators and Philadelphia Flyers ranked first and fourth in xGA/60, which, as we have discussed, has been an excellent indicator of postseason success, while the Montreal Canadiens did suppress goals against effectively this postseason prior to their matchup versus Carolina, even if that was mainly due to Jakub Dobes’ play in goal.
So while the Knights are rightfully getting plenty of credit for their defensive play versus Colorado, the Hurricanes’ deep attack presents a notably tough challenge, and at least in the opener, it wouldn’t surprise me if Carolina manages a strong offensive output.
Carolina plays an ultra-aggressive game in all three zones, employing defenders to pinch aggressively in the offensive zone, step up on plays early in the neutral zone, and utilize a man-on-man structure in the defensive zone. When everyone’s reads are on point it is an exceptional system, but it can lead to a tendency to give up extremely dangerous when every skater is not entirely on point, and the Knights have been elite at capitalizing on miscues from the opposition this postseason.
Considering his GAA it feels absurd to say, but Frederik Andersen’s play still feels like somewhat of a question mark. The Hurricanes allowed next to nothing versus Montreal, but the Knights may have the potential to make the most of what will likely be a low output of chances in the series.
The last Stanley Cup Final Game 1s have averaged 6.55 combined goals, before the majority of those series have tightened up the rest of the way. This seems like a decent time to buy into that trend, and at -120 there looks to be value backing the over.
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Odds
| Golden Knights Moneyline Odds | (+125) |
| Hurricanes Moneyline Odds | (-150) |
| Puck Line Odds | Golden Knights +1.5 (-205) Hurricanes -1.5 (+170) |
| Series Winner Odds | Golden Knights (+125), Hurricanes (-150) |
| Goal Total | Over 5.5 Goals (-120), Under 5.5 Goals (+100) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Golden Knights
When the Knights initially hired John Tortorella with eight games left in the season, Tortorella noted that he did not intend to make significant structural changes relative to how the team played under Bruce Cassidy. Despite their modest record, that viewpoint made a lot of sense.
Under Cassidy the Knights ranked fifth in expected goal share but went just 6-16 in 3-on-3/shootouts and received a team save percentage of .875, which ranked fifth worst in the NHL. Hart had a late start to the season, and missed much of the campaign due to injury.
So with 3-on-3 and shootouts no longer a hampering factor and Hart suddenly offering elite play in goal, it isn’t entirely shocking that the Knights have turned the corner this postseason after entering the year priced as the fourth favourite to win the Stanley Cup.
Hart has played to a +7.7 GSAx rating and .922 save percentage this postseason, which has been a major reason the Knights have authored this excellent run to the final. He is currently priced at +1400 to win the Conn Smythe, and that number is likely a little longer due to a belief that a certain portion of voters may be unwilling to vote for Hart.
While Hart’s play has been the backbone of the Knights’ success, they have been excellent defensively, limiting opponents to just 2.97 xGA/60 this postseason. Vegas never brings its defenders above the circles in the defensive zone, letting the centre chase those pucks and staying committed to a strategy revolving around protecting the front of the net at all costs.
The Knights feature a well-balanced offensive attack, as Tortorella has opted to employ each of his elite offensive skaters, Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, and Mark Stone on different units, which will present a much different challenge to the Hurricanes than any previous opponent has this postseason.
Stone recorded two goals and an assist in Games 3 and 4 versus Colorado after missing the first two games of the series, and though he is certainly dealing with a nagging injury, still seems capable of being quite effective.
The Knights’ power play has also been quite effective this postseason, as it has succeeded on 23.9% of opportunities, and found success versus an Avalanche penalty kill that ranked first in the league during the regular season. Carolina’s ultra-aggressive penalty kill has been very effective this postseason, and the unit that wins that battle will likely be a key factor in determining the winner of this series.
Jeremy Lauzon is the only Knights skater that is unfit to play in Game 1, and both teams are seemingly quite healthy relative to what we often see this late into the postseason.
Betting Carolina Hurricanes
It feels as though a large portion of observers remain reluctant to credit that the Hurricanes may simply just be an extremely well-constructed team.
There’s a pretty strong case to be made that if the Senators were to receive good goaltending, which they did in Round 1, they were actually quite a strong team. Philadelphia appeared a little more fraudulent but was excellent defensively after making some adjustments following the Olympic break. Montreal may also have been somewhat fraudulent relative to many Conference Finalists, but did still knock off two high quality teams to get there.
Following each of those series it’s been surprising how much of the talk has been angled towards the idea that Carolina simply beat a paper tiger, when the Knights beat the Utah Mammoth and Anaheim Ducks in Rounds 1 and 2, who generally were not overly respected.
Carolina has played to a 64.17% expected goal share this postseason, which is a drastically better mark than any team managed throughout the regular season.
The top line of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis has been mildly disappointing, but they have hung in respectably in matchups versus opposing superstars, as has the elite defensive line of Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook and Nikolaj Ehlers. The play of those two lines in tough matchups has freed up the trio of Logan Stankoven, Jackson Blake and Taylor Hall to shred softer matchups, and the trio has outscored opponents 12-4 this postseason while playing to a 70.4% expected goal share.
The Hurricanes defensive core has been rock solid from top to bottom, as all three pairings have been effective this postseason. K’Andre Miller has been the team’s best blue-liner, and with Miller on the ice the Hurricanes have allowed only 0.77 GA/60, and outscored opponents 13-3 with the pairing of Miller and Sean Walker on the ice.
From a statistical perspective, there’s an argument to be made that Miller has been the most important skater for Carolina this postseason and that taking him away would have caused a greater effect than losing any of Hall, Stankoven or Blake would have. While it’s unlikely he will get enough credit to win the Conn Smythe, taking a stab backing Miller to win it at +7500 looks to be a worthy long shot.
Among Hurricanes players, Andersen is the favourite to win the Conn Smythe at +225, having played to a +11.5 GSAx and .931 save percentage. He was shaky early on versus Montreal, before the Hurricanes began to entirely squeeze the life out of the Canadiens and make his job quite simple.
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