In this article, we’ll outline our best Hurricanes vs. Canadiens prediction for Game 4, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams, so you can place a winning wager with any of the best NHL betting sites.
Despite being heavily outchanced for a second consecutive game, Montreal had some legitimate chances to win Game 3. Nick Suzuki fired a rolling puck wide on a breakaway at the very start of overtime, while a go-ahead goal from Noah Dobson came off the board after Cole Caufield’s entry was ruled to be offside.
Though the Canadiens have been extremely resilient this postseason, it seems as though the wear-and-tear from two seven-game series is starting to show versus a deep, well-rested Hurricanes side. Montreal will need to dig deep Wednesday, or it will head back to Raleigh looking to stave off elimination Friday evening.
It seemed as though we lucked into getting our third shot from Nikolaj Ehlers in overtime to cash our best bet for Game 3, but unfortunately it was deemed to be going just wide following a stat correction. That loss moves our Canadiens picks this postseason to 8-6 and +6.45 units.
Hurricanes vs Canadiens Prediction: Hurricanes Moneyline -140 (Play to -145)
Hurricanes moneyline
We’ve not yet faded the scrappy Canadiens this postseason, but Carolina feels poised to continue elevating its level of play in this series, and this finally feels like the spot to do so.
Though Montreal’s overall process hasn’t always been pretty this postseason, we have generally believed enough in the team’s opportunistic offensive play and elite goaltending to avoid fading them given that they rarely have gotten any kind of respect from oddsmakers.
The Hurricanes have played just 11 games over the last 37 days, though, while the Canadiens have grinded their way through 17 games in 37 days. While the Canadiens have counter-punched well in the series, it still feels clear that the deep and well-rested Hurricanes are starting to wear them down shift after shift, and that Carolina is likely to continue carrying play at a greater rate moving forward.
The Hurricanes generated 18 high-danger scoring chances in Game 3 and allowed only seven against. They outshot the Canadiens 38-13, and limited Montreal to just two shots in the third period and overtime combined.
While Montreal’s average chance has been of better quality than Carolina’s, it’s still not realistic to score on close to 20% of shots on goal, and it’s starting to feel like that is the conversion rate Montreal will need in order to steal games in this series, having lost Games 2 and 3 despite finishing 15.89% of shots on goal.
At -140, there seems to be value backing the Hurricanes to grab a 3-1 series stranglehold Wednesday.
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Odds
| Hurricanes Moneyline odds | (-140) |
| Canadiens Moneyline odds | (+120) |
| Puck Line Odds | Hurricanes -1.5 (+185) Canadiens +1.5 (-225) |
| Series Winner Odds | Canadiens (+375), Hurricanes (-500) |
| Goal Total | Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Carolina Hurricanes
While the Canadiens deserve credit for the excellent job of capitalizing on the Hurricanes’ awful defensive reads in Game 1, it still felt obvious that the Hurricanes were notably out of sync and largely beat themselves.
Though Montreal has still generated some excellent looks in transition against the run of play in Games 2 and 3, the Hurricanes have looked much more true to form in dominating the overall time of possession to greatly limit the number of shots heading towards Frederik Andersen.
The Hurricanes’ superior roster depth is starting to shine through, which, coupled with their rest advantage, is starting to make the Canadiens’ avenues to success in this series feel highly one-dimensional.
The top line of Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov has been the roster’s lone clear weakness this postseason, but still played to a 62.4% expected goal share in Game 3, and came through with the overtime winner. The second line of Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven and Taylor Hall has been exceptional all postseason, while the checking line of Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook and Nikolaj Ehlers has fared very well in this series.
It doesn’t feel like there are any easy shifts for the Canadiens right now, or any lines that will easily be exposed moving forward in this series.
Betting Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens hold a PDO of 106.79 in Games 2 and 3, and have still lost. While Montreal has missed some chances to win those games, it’s still not overly realistic to expect to finish chances at a greater rate than it has or to see Jakub Dobes elevate his level of play in goal to an even greater extent.
Rather than point to the missed chances, head coach Martin St. Louis needs to explore ways for his team to generate more possession and spend more time playing in Carolina’s zone, but that is obviously a task that is easier said than done. You can’t score on 20.87% shots on goal in the series and believe the problem is missed opportunities.
As commented on by Martin St. Louis postgame, the Canadiens know they need to generate more scoring opportunities. But the question becomes whether it’s realistic to make adjustments to do so.
Aside from the odd glaring miscue defensively, which is natural given the crippling pressure Carolina places on pucks all over the ice, Carolina feels to be a well-oiled machine right now.
Canadiens defenders don’t have much space to work with below the goal line, and the Hurricanes defenders are taking away the walls and forcing either punts to centre ice, or borderline passes into the middle. Carolina is placing a ton of pressure upon Montreal’s skaters to execute effectively with no time or space, and in Games 2 and 3 it felt as though Montreal had failed to perform in those conditions.
The Canadiens have employed an offensive strategy based on generating high-quality shots this season, and by no means do I believe the change in approach should be to simply pad their shot totals with low-quality looks. But they do need to start executing more effectively to generate more possession and spend less time defending, and it feels like right now Carolina is much more situated to push the pace shift after shift.
You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets on the Action Network App!
