Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Thursday’s seven-game slate.
Both of our props from Wednesday’s prop guide got home as winners, and these guides are now up 16.65 units across 113 selections this season. We’ve got one more slate to work with before the NHL’s 20-day layoff for the Olympics, and I’m excited to attempt to stay hot with Thursday’s pair of selections.
Tim Stutzle/Drake Batherson 1+ Point Each: +110
Stutzle/Batherson points parlay
Betting this duo to each record a point made the cut for Monday’s player prop piece at +115, and they came through for us with two points each. They then each recorded a point the following night in a tough road matchup versus the Carolina Hurricanes, making it four straight games in which they have each recorded a point.
With the price for this play still sitting up at +110, it seems logical to continue riding with this look and not overthink it.
As we have touched on several times over the last month, oddsmakers seem surprisingly reluctant to accept that Batherson’s level of production this season is sustainable. It’s hard for me to see why though, as he’s skating on the Senators’ top line alongside Stutzle, who’s been one of the most dynamic skaters in the NHL this season, and is also skating on the Senators’ top power-play unit.
It’s not as though Batherson is simply a passenger either, as his offensive play has looked quite strong, and his individual metrics are also solid, including an +8.6 expected goals above replacement rating led by strong offensive numbers.
Batherson has put up 49 points in 53 games this season, and he looks particularly likely to remain productive currently because the Senators’ relatively new top line of Stutzle, Batherson, and Claude Giroux has been extremely effective across their first 70.9 minutes of play together. They hold a 63.8% expected goal share and have generated 3.81 xGF/60, and have scored 3.38 goals per 60 where it counts.
The Senators’ power-play unit has also been quite effective recently, as over the last 10 games Ottawa has succeeded on 25.8% of opportunities.
The Philadelphia Flyers aim to be a low-event defensive side under head coach Rick Tocchet, but they have allowed 4.10 goals against per game over their last 10 matchups, which is the second-worst mark in the NHL. At worst, the Flyers offer an average matchup, which has me quite interested in riding with this prop once again at +110.
Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +100
Dorofeyev over 2.5 SOG
We’ll be riding with another familiar look Thursday in backing Dorofeyev to record over 2.5 shots on goal, a play that we backed in a softer matchup at -120 on Wednesday. While I respect that for the most consistent readers, write-ups on the same plays can be stale, it’s most important that we attempt to produce winning bets so that concern is livable.
Prior to Wednesday’s matchup, Dorofeyev had gone under 2.5 shots on goal in three straight matchups. But as we outlined in Wednesday’s guide, his momentary lapse in shot volume did not appear to be sustainable. For at least one night he made that take look highly accurate, as he recorded a goal, seven shots, and 12 attempts on target in Wednesday’s matchup.
Over the last 14 games, Dorofeyev has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal nine times and averaged 3.75 shots on goal per game, as well as 5.92 attempts per game. The sustainability of Dorofeyev’s recent shot volume seems quite solid, because he is the primary shooter on the Knights’ strong top power-play unit, and remains alongside two highly intelligent playmakers at even strength, Mark Stone and Mitch Marner.
The Kings have typically been a tougher than average target for opposing shooters to generate volume in recent years, but over the last 10 games, have allowed 28.33 shots against per 60, which is the 10th-highest rate in the NHL. Even if the Kings are a little better defensively than we have seen recently, the adjustment in price from this prop to +100 after it was set at -120 Wednesday is more than enough of an adjustment to believe it is still in a playable range at the time of writing.
You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets on the Action Network App!