Less than three weeks into the MLB season, the Toronto Blue Jays have found the AL East to be just as challenging as everyone thought it would be. At .500, they’re in last place, four games behind the hot-starting New York Yankees.
Entering their third division series of the season, they want to ensure they don’t fall too far behind as they wait, once again, for their offence to get up to speed. After losing two of three in their first series with the Yanks, in the Bronx, the Blue Jays get them at home this time, starting with Monday night’s 7:07 p.m. game at Rogers Centre.
Bet on Yankees vs. Blue Jays
NYY -111
TOR -105
It was largely Toronto’s struggles in the division, where they went 21-31, that cost them better playoff positioning in 2023. Thus far, Toronto is off to a slightly better pace vs. division opponents, with three wins and four losses on the young season.
Let’s take a look at the best game odds available:
Yankees vs. Blue Jays best odds
| Yankees Moneyline Odds | -101 @ Pinnacle |
| Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | -105 @ BetRivers |
| Runline Odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+180) @ bet365 Yankees +1.5 (-212) @ Pinnacle |
| Over/Under | Over 8.5 runs (-118) @ Pinnacle Under 9 runs (-118) @ BetRivers |
| Time/Date | April 15, 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet One |
Betting New York Yankees (12-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, 5-9-1 o/u)
The Yankees were on target to wrap up a sweep in Cleveland, but reliever Caleb Ferguson surrendered three runs in the bottom of the 10th inning to blow Sunday’s game aided by a couple of infield bobbles. Though they had a successful weekend vs. the Guardians, the Yankees’ bullpen was pushed hard. Nestor Cortes could only go four innings Sunday coming off Saturday’s doubleheader. This is a good New York bullpen, though. Despite Ferguson’s foibles, the Yankees’ relievers allowed just four earned runs over 12 1/3 innings in Cleveland.
Aaron Judge and the Yankees’ lineup is heating up a bit after a slow start. The AL MVP favourite launched a 450-foot home run Sunday, the fifth-longest home run of the MLB season. Young shortstop Anthony Volpe also has been impressive this season, leading Yankees regulars with a 1.041 OPS.
But pitching has been the biggest reason the Yankees have gotten off to such a strong start. The Yankees trail only the Boston Red Sox in ERA (2.78) and they rank seventh in WHIP (1.20). Interestingly, New York’s dominance has come with a surprising lack of strikeout oomph. Yankees pitchers rank 20th in strikeouts on the young season, in part due to an injury to staff ace Gerrit Cole, last season’s Cy Young winner. The Yankees are hoping to withstand the next few months without Cole, who is dealing with a nerve injury in his right elbow.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (8-8 SU, 8-7 ATS, 7-8 o/u)
The slightly favoured Blue Jays are hoping to build momentum off another dominant start by José Berríos, who held the Colorado Rockies scoreless over seven dominant innings Sunday to improve his ERA to 1.05 on the young season. Berríos has become a measure of consistency, leading the majors with 25 2/3 innings thus far, and he has taken the lead position, at least temporarily, as the Blue Jays ace since Kevin Gausman was slowed this spring due to some shoulder fatigue. Toronto, which was led by its starting rotation in 2023, is waiting for the rest of the rotation to follow Berríos’s lead, because he won’t pitch in this series against one of the hottest teams in MLB.
The Blue Jays, once again, are wondering why a star-studded lineup isn’t more productive. They rank 22nd in the majors with a .681 OPS, 22nd with 14 home runs and 21st with 61 runs scored in 16 games, an average of just 3.8 runs per game. They can’t blame the new guy. Justin Turner has been as productive as ever, even at age 39, leading the majors with a .386 batting average and posting the best OPS (1.095) on the team.
Justin Turner over 0.5 hits
-160
Probable pitchers
New York: RHP Luis Gil (0-0, 3.09 ERA, 14.0 K/9, 1.11 WHIP)
Gil originally was set to pitch Saturday in Cleveland, but the Yankees pushed him back a couple days after the Friday night rainout. The Blue Jays will be dealing with an electric arm on extra rest on Monday night.
Gil, 25, is taking advantage of one of the best opportunities of his young career while Cole works his way back. He has always had a strong arm, but he has taken his fastball to another level this season, adding spin to a pitch that ranks in the 94th percentile with an average velocity of 96.9 mph. Gil also has decent off-speed pitches in his slider and changeup and his strikeout rate has ranked in the 93rd percentile this season. The Blue Jays no doubt will be looking to take advantage of his sometimes-shaky command as he has already walked seven batters in just nine innings this season.
Toronto: RHP Chris Bassitt (1-2, 5.06 ERA, 9.56 K/9, 1.81 WHIP)
After a couple of rocky starts to begin his season, Bassitt was outstanding in his third one last week at Rogers Centre, holding the Seattle Mariners to just a run on five hits while striking out eight over 6 2/3 innings. Bassitt’s only appreciable mistake in the start was a pitch to Dominic Canzone that caught too much of the plate and wound up a home run.
Bassitt, 35, is coming off arguably the finest season of his career, his first time reaching the 200-inning benchmark while leading the league with 16 wins and 33 games started.
Bassitt has never been a power pitcher, per se, but he is learning to pitch with stuff that is well-below major league norms nowadays. Bassitt’s primary fastball, his sinker, averages just 92 mph, placing him in the 22nd percentile for fastball velocity. He uses a three-pitch mix effectively enough to get a decent number of strikeouts and a better-than-average rate of groundballs.
Weather
Though there is no precipitation forecast, the roof figures to be closed at Rogers Centre given first-pitch temperatures forecast to be in the 10 C range, with wind blowing in from left field at about 15 km/h.
MLB betting trends
- Both these teams have been reliable under hitters, particularly the Yankees. Together, New York, Toronto and each team’s respective opponents, have exceeded the run total in just 12 of 39 games.
- The Blue Jays have won four of the six games in which they have been favoured this season.
- The Yankees, meanwhile, have thrived as underdogs, winning five of the six games in which they have been tabbed underdogs.
MLB player prop trends
- Turner will look to extend his hitting streak to seven games. In his last 10 games, he is batting .433 with five doubles, seven walks and four RBIs.
- Juan Soto ranks 15th in the majors in on-base percentage (.468) and 29th in slugging (.564).
- This will be Soto’s seventh game at Rogers Centre and he has not particularly enjoyed hitting there in the past. Soto has a .191 batting average and one home run in 27 plate appearances at the dome.
- In addition to the aforementioned batting average, Volpe leads the Yankees with 21 hits, a .477 OBP and a slug of .564.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions
- Getting odds, even narrow ones, on the Yankees is simply too good to pass up. This team has thrived in its few chances as underdogs. In this matchup, it also has the pitcher with appreciably better stuff. Consider taking the Yankees moneyline (-101 @ Pinnacle best odds) as they look to stay hot on this not-too-far-from home road trip.
- The Blue Jays are among the more patient teams in MLB, ranking ninth in walks. They’re also not particularly prone to strike out, ranking 23rd in that department. But Gil’s strikeout prop of 5.5 seems too low given his newfound velocity and spin rate. Consider taking the over (-107 @ Pinnacle best odds).
