Our Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction for Thursday night leans toward a matchup with plenty of scoring chances, especially if Toronto’s injury-ravaged pitching staff struggles to contain a surging Baltimore lineup. With both teams still battling through inconsistent seasons, Pete Alonso’s RBI prop stands out as one of the best angles on the board against Patrick Corbin and a Blue Jays staff that has been vulnerable on the road.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction
Pete Alonso to record an RBI: +140 @ Betano
Pete Alonso to record an RBI
The Polar Bear appears to have finally awoken from his early-season slumber, recording 11 RBIs in his last 51 at-bats with a .796 OPS in that span.
Alonso ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity (95 mph) and the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate (55.2%) this season, solidifying himself as one of the top power hitters in the game.
Additionally, Alonso boasts some highly impressive career splits against Patrick Corbin, hitting .365 with five home runs and nine RBIs in 52 career at-bats against the southpaw.
Bettors can consider backing Alonso in the home run (+375) and total bases markets (over 1.5, +125), but the real value lies in the hulking first baseman to drive in a run at more lucrative +140 odds.
As always, shop around at the best MLB betting sites before locking in any wagers.
Greg’s Blue Jays predictions are 15-8-2 for +5.29 units this season.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | +110 |
| Orioles moneyline odds | -130 |
| Run line odds | Orioles -1.5 (+155), Blue Jays +1.5 (-185) |
| Game total | Over 8.5 runs (-120), Under 8.5 runs (+100) |
| Date/time | May 28, 6:35 p.m. ET |
Betting the Blue Jays (27-29 SU, 27-29 ATS, 27-28-1 o/u)
The Blue Jays have won three of their last four series, and earned a four-game split in the Bronx against New York, to keep afloat in the AL standings while they deal with a myriad of injuries to key players.
They find themselves just two games below .500 and holding down an AL Wild Card spot entering this three-game series with the Orioles, and picking at least two wins at Camden Yards will be important before the team heads to Atlanta for a tough three-game series with the NL East-leading Braves.
The Blue Jays have struggled mightily on the road this season, averaging just 3.58 runs per game (third-worst in MLB) with a miserable .652 team OPS.
Betting the Orioles (26-30 SU, 26-30 ATS, 32-23-1 o/u)
Like the Blue Jays, the Orioles have battled numerous injuries to pitchers early in the season, resulting in an average of 5.3 runs allowed per game (28th in MLB).
However, they’re playing good baseball right now, picking up wins in five of their last six games over the Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers. They held opponents to four runs or less in five of those six contests.
Baltimore is averaging 4.5 runs per game (12th in MLB) despite slow starts from sluggers Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson.
Collectively, the team has struggled this season against left-handed pitching, recording a .221/.306/.357 slash line with a .662 OPS.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: LHP Patrick Corbin (2-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6.50 K/9)
Corbin has been a godsend for the injury-ravaged Blue Jays, allowing three earned runs or less in eight of his nine starts since signing with Toronto in early April.
However, a look at his Statcast metrics suggests he’s been getting very lucky this season, as he owns an ugly 5.40 xERA and .291 opponents’ xBA.
Corbin’s 43.3% hard-hit rate ranks in just the 25th percentile, and his 16.8% strikeout rate is in just the 18th percentile.
Baltimore: RHP Chris Bassitt (4-3, 5.51 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 6.46 K/9)
A familiar face to many players on the Blue Jays roster, Bassitt has done a good job of eating innings for the Orioles this season while posting mostly mediocre results as he pitches to contact.
Bassitt effectively throws his seven different pitches for strikes, and opponents are barreling him up at just a 3.7% rate (90th percentile) this season.
He’s been good in five games at Camden Yards this season, recording a 3.46 ERA with 22 strikeouts across 26 innings.
This is a classic revenge spot for Bassitt versus his old club after the Blue Jays let him walk via free agency over the winter.
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- C Alejandro Kirk (thumb)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Shane Bieber (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
- P Dylan Cease (hamstring)
- P Max Scherzer (forearm)
- OF Addison Barger (arm)
- P Joe Mantiply (knee)
- P Tommy Nance (forearm)
The following players are on the injured list for Baltimore:
- P Felix Bautista (shoulder)
- P Zach Eflin (elbow)
- P Dean Kremer (quad)
- P Ryan Helsley (elbow)
- IF Jordan Westburg (elbow)
- 1B Ryan Mountcastle (foot)
- P Cade Povich (elbow)
- OF Heston Kjerstad (hamstring)
- OF Dylan Beavers (oblique)
P Yennier Cano is day-to-day with a hamstring injury.
Weather
It should be a beautiful night for baseball at Camden Yards, with forecasts projecting temperatures around 21 C and clear skies. Winds will be blowing in from left field at 13 mph.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays betting trends
- The over is 7-2 in the past nine meetings between these teams.
- The Blue Jays have won the past four meetings dating back to last season.
- The Orioles are 6-1 on the run line in their last seven home games.
- Baltimore is 6-10 SU against AL East opponents this season.
- The Blue Jays are 10-16 SU on the road this season.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays player prop trends
- Bassitt is averaging just 3.4 strikeouts per game this season and is now facing a very disciplined Toronto lineup that strikes out just 7.25 times per game (second-best in MLB). He’s around -155 to record under 4.5 strikeouts.
- Corbin has allowed five hits or more in each of his last six starts, with a median of six hits in that span. He’s around -160 to allow over 4.5 hits on Thursday night.
- Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman has walked at least one in each of his last four games and in 32% of his games this season. His 9.1% walk rate ranks around the league average, and he’s +150 to draw a walk on Tuesday.
- Alonso owns a .365 batting average and 1.172 OPS with five home runs in 52 career at-bats against Corbin. He’s +375 to homer and +125 to record over 1.5 total bases.
