Saturday’s massive 15-game slate marks the fifth-to-last slate of the NHL regular season. To this point only two first-round matchups are set, and only nine teams have mathematically clinched playoff spots. In this article, I’ll break down my two best bets from Saturday’s critical NHL card, based on Friday’s opening prices at online sportsbooks.
Please keep in mind this guide was written Friday afternoon, which means there will likely be some line movement as games draw closer to puck-drop.
NHL Best Bets For April 11
Philadelphia Flyers vs Winnipeg Jets: Under 5.5 Goals +100 (Play to -115)
Flyers/Jets under 5.5 goals
The Flyers suffered a 6-3 loss in Detroit Thursday evening, while the Jets won 3-2 in St. Louis, making this matchup the most significant from the entire slate in terms of playoff implications.
With a win, the Flyers would take a stranglehold on the third spot in the Metropolitan Division, but a loss would open the door for the Columbus Blue Jackets or New York Islanders to overtake them. The Jets, meanwhile, will likely need to win out to have any chance of stealing the final spot out West, particularly considering the Los Angeles Kings’ remaining schedule.
Both of these teams have excelled at suppressing opponents offensively down the stretch, and this game should certainly have a playoff feel. They each strive to find success with tight-checking, defensively-responsible styles, and neither are the type to expect to find success in a track meet.
The Flyers have allowed only 2.55 goals against per game over the last 20 matchups and hold the best xGA/60 rating in the NHL throughout that span. They played a high-event 6-3 matchup, but that game featured five special teams goals and took on an abnormal game script relative to the majority of recent Flyers games. It seems logical to expect head coach Rick Tocchet’s side to get back to their identity in this matchup, and they should be capable of limiting high-danger scoring chances effectively versus a Jets attack that still looks quite one-dimensional.
The Jets have allowed only 2.60 goals against per game over the last 20 matchups and rank 13th in xGA/60 in that span. Connor Hellebuyck has regained top form down the stretch, as over his last eight starts he holds a .910 save percentage and with a 2.14 GAA.
Vegas Golden Knights vs Colorado Avalanche: Knights Moneyline +120 (Play to +110)
Knights moneyline
The Avalanche have already locked up the Presidents’ Trophy with the league’s best record, while the Golden Knights are still fighting to lock up the Pacific Division title, or perhaps more favourably, home ice in Round One in a likely series versus the Anaheim Ducks.
Colorado will likely remain without Cale Makar and Nazem Kadri, at a minimum, but it would not be surprising to see them ultimately end up resting several regulars.
Whether the Avs do end up icing a notably thin lineup or not, a price of +120 looks worth locking in on the Golden Knights considering their recent form, and then obviously if they do rest some key bodies, that price will gain plenty of closing line value.
Similar to the Ottawa Senators, the Knights may prove to be a much tougher out come the postseason than is generally credited if they receive remotely respectable play in goal. Having a new voice in the room, John Tortorella, may prove beneficial, but regardless, the Knights already looked to be a likely bounce-back candidate based on their underlying results and the talent on the roster.
Over the last 10 games, the Knights hold a 58.69% expected goal share, and have allowed only 2.70 xGA/60. Under Tortorella, they hold a 62.73% expected goal share and have generated 4.03 xGF/60.
It’s hard to overcome bad goaltending, but outside of that concern, Vegas does seem to be playing at as high a level as any team in the NHL currently.
However, Carter Hart has played to a .923 save percentage since returning to the lineup with a 1.67 GAA. It’s a small sample size, and he’s faced a soft schedule, but even if Hart could provide league-average goaltending, the Knights become a drastically more formidable side.
Considering the Knights’ recent play and the potential of a somewhat lacklustre effort from the Avs in this spot, the current price of +120 for the Knights to win looks to provide strong value.
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