Copa America Semifinal Odds (July 9): Argentina vs. Canada Predictions

Stephen Eustaquio of Canada battles for possession with Lionel Messi of Argentina during the CONMEBOL Copa America group A match between Argentina and Canada at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on June 20, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia

It feels like there’s a new “biggest game in the history of Canadian men’s soccer” every few days right now. In reality, though, it’s absolutely true. Canada’s push through Copa America, which saw them advance through the group stage and then win their first knockout game, now has them in the semifinals, two wins away from a glory that seemed inexplicable at the start. To be upfront, it’s still a very tough and unlikely hill to climb. But their confidence and ability has grown by the day, and now, in their second match against Argentina, there’s a feeling that they could actually pull something off here.

Is Tuesday the night of the “Miracle on Grass”? Let’s talk about it.

8:00 p.m. ET Headliner: Argentina vs. Canada

Argentina Win-294Canada Win+1075Draw+420
Over 2.5 Goals-108Under 2.5 Goals-115BroadcastTSN
All odds courtesy of Betano Canada

Now, you might be asking why Canada and Argentina are facing off again so soon, given that they were in the same group. After all, shouldn’t they have been placed on opposite sides of the bracket like we see in basically every other tournament in existance? Did this bracket not look like it was designed to spoon-feed an Argentina-Brazil final for maximum TV viewership and gate revenue? Is the United States-hosted edition built around maximum money?

I mean, we can’t say yes, but the answer probably isn’t no. Either way, we’re here now, with Brazil out of the mix and Canada looking to spoil the other side of the party as well.

The two teams, with FIFA World Rankings of No. 1 and No. 48, respectively, reconvene after playing the tournament opener in Atlanta on June 20th. Canada was ultimately outmatched, conceding two thirds of the shots and the possession, but were able to create several looks as the game went on and held their opponents off the scoresheet until the second half. Julian Alvarez put Argentina up in the 49th minute, and Lautaro Martinez added insurance in the 88th minute once Canada started to press more aggressively for an equalizer.

Since then, the two sides have gone in slightly different routes. The Argentines defeated Chile in a 1-0 result, whose scoreline masks the dominance of the effort, and similarly cruised past Peru in the final group stage game. One could argue that of the three matches, Canada gave them the biggest scare. That changed in the quarterfinals, when Ecuador brought them to the brink, levelling them in possession and shot volume across a tough 90 minutes, and equalizing in stoppage time to force penalties. Lionel Messi missed Argentina’s first kick, but goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez showed off the same heroics he did in the World Cup, backstopping his team to a narrow victory.

For Canada, their last few weeks featured a narrowly-fought victory over Peru, which saw Jonathan David score the lone goal at the 74-minute mark, and an advancement-clinching draw against Chile in which the Canadians controlled the ball for most of the game, though they also played a man up for 63 minutes after Gabriel Suazo was red-carded. Last Friday, the Canadians faced Venezuela in the quarterfinals, and had one of the best games in the history of the program, particularly in the first half. Jacob Shaffelburg put the red and white up just 13 minutes in and the team continued to press, losing the possession battle but creating much better chances. Unfortunately, the finishing wasn’t there, and a costly miscommunication in the second half led to a half-field equalizer for Salomon Rondon. Like Argentina’s quarterfinal matchup, this game also went to penalties, even if it felt like Canada could’ve won by three or four goals. Thankfully, it went in their favour, with Maxime Crepeau making up for the lone goal against with key saves, and Ismael Kone depositing the winner to send Canada through.

The mood going into Tuesday’s rematch is interesting. There’s still a “nothing to lose” attitude surrounding the team, with Canada being extreme underdogs that were never supposed to get to the final four to begin with. At the same time, the closeness of their first matchup left the feeling that there could be potential for more here, as did their subsequent run. We’ll see whether Canada’s extra confidence and experience can narrow the gap even further or potentially flip it for one night or if Argentina will take Canada more seriously than they did at the start and show another gear.

Game Bets To Consider

  • Feeling a tone-setter Tuesday? Both teams would likely prefer to avoid the tenseness of their first half against each other in the group stage, and both want to show they have more goals to give following their quarterfinal matchups. Expect energy in the opening minutes, and Betano is feeling an early strike as such – their odds for a goal in the first 15 minutes (Timed Goals Over/Under, 00:00 – 14:59 over 0.5) sit at +230, enhanced from +205.
  • All eyes will be on both teams’ marquee finishers, who both lacked their trademark touch both this weekend and against each other. For Jonathan David, his shots on target line is set at 0.5 (over: +105), and his goal line is set at +600. For Lionel Messi, his shots on target line is set at 1.5 (-143) and his anytime goal line is set at -110. If you want to ride the hot hands instead, a Jacob Shaffelburg goal for Canada sits at +650, while a Lautaro Martinez goal for Argentina sits at +105.

Bet on Argentina vs. Canada

ARG -294
CAN +1075

Latest 2024 Copa America Futures Odds

Here are the latest 2024 Copa America Futures odds, heading into the matches on July 9:

TeamLast MatchdayTeamLast Matchday
All odds courtesy of Betano Canada

Canada’s odds have shortened by nearly half, though with the Argentines on the other side, they still find themselves far and away the longest of the remaining four. Colombia could be an interesting bet to win it all, as they’re in fantastic form, most recently shown in a 5-0 blowout of Panama in the quarterfinals.