Jake’s Takes: Your Guide To NFL Week 16 Odds, Betting Mismatches, Props & Trends

Welcome NFL fans to a very festive Week 16!

First off let me wish everyone out there a Merry Christmas! If you don’t celebrate Christmas, I hope the holiday season offers you some time with friends and family, and maybe most importantly Football!

As far as Week 15 is concerned, Christmas continues to come early for Buffalo Bills fans. A season that appeared dead in the water a mere two weeks ago has been resuscitated in a major way. If you told Bills fans that they’d come out of their three-game gauntlet in which they played the Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys with 2 out of 3 wins, they’d have scoffed. But after narrowing losing to Philly, Buffalo pulled out the win against KC and rode that momentum into a dominant victory over Dallas. Buffalo’s playoff chances are now in great shape and win this Saturday against the listless Chargers would put them at 70% to make the postseason. The Bills now sit at second in the weekly power rankings and it’s hard to imagine them wasting this opportunity to save this season.

In Week 16 news, holy heck is it a bad week to be the home squad. 6 teams this weekend will find themselves underdogs in their own barns. As two-thirds of the league starts to fade out of the picture and look towards the draft and the 2024 season we’re gonna see a lot of home dogs in the waning weeks. One of those underdogs this week may not be out of the picture but it does feel like the end. The Pittsburgh Steelers are falling fast and losing Kenny Pickett was likely the nail in the coffin for 2023. It’s also starting to feel more and more likely that a split is coming between the Steelers and coach Mike Tomlin. A reset is probably necessary and Tomlin (Pittsburgh coach since 2007) and the team probably need an amicable split to pursue other avenues.

In Houston, the unlikely playoff charge seems to be coming to an end as CJ Stroud looks to be out for their pivotal matchup against Cleveland. A Texans win at home would put their playoff chances at a sturdy 72% but it’s hard to see them coming out ahead without Stroud.

The Colts travel to Atlanta in a pivotal matchup for both teams. The Falcons’ playoff chances still exist but are on life support. They’ll need a win and to hope for some key losses around them. The Colts meanwhile have some internal drama to deal with as their playoff berth hangs in the balance. Indy suspended WR Isaiah McKenzie and CB Tony Brown for 3 games each for “conduct detrimental to the team”. In what is likely a make-or-break game for them, the Colts are choosing team culture over the easier road. Here’s hoping it doesn’t bite them in the end.

With our storylines in tow let’s get to the numbers and see what kind of picks we can find for ourselves under the tree!

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Favourite	M-Line	Spread	Total	Underdog	Day/Time (ET)
Los Angeles Rams	-210	-4	O/U 46	New Orleans Saints	Thursday / 8:15 PM
Cincinnati Bengals	-130	-2	O/U 37	Pittsburgh Steelers*	Saturday / 4:30 PM
Buffalo Bills	-750	-12	O/U 44	Los Angeles Chargers*	Saturday / 8:00 PM
Cleveland Browns	-150	-2.5	O/U 40	Houston Texans*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Detroit Lions	-170	-3	O/U 47	Minnesota Vikings*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Green Bay Packers	-225	-5	O/U 37	Carolina Panthers*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Atlanta Falcons	-115	-1	O/U 44.5	Indianapolis Colts	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Seattle Seahawks	-150	-2.5	O/U 41.5	Tennessee Titans*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
New York Jets	-165	-3	O/U 37	Washington Commanders	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-110	-1	O/U 42.5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Sunday / 4:05 PM
Chicago Bears	-210	-4	O/U 43	Arizona Cardinals	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Miami Dolphins	-125	-1.5	O/U 50	Dallas Cowboys	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Denver Broncos	-300	-6.5	O/U 34.5	New England Patriots	Sunday / 8:15 PM
Kansas City Chiefs	-500	-10	O/U 41.5	Las Vegas Raiders	Monday / 1:00 PM
Philadelphia Eagles	-700	-12	O/U 42.5	New York Giants	Monday / 4:30 PM
San Francisco 49ers	-240	-5.5	O/U 47	Baltimore Ravens	Monday / 8:15 PM

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Week 16 lines to bet NOW

• Indianapolis Colts – Moneyline: +100

Despite their internal strife, the Colts should possess enough overall talent to get past the Falcons and QB Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke is officially taking over starting QB duties for the Falcon’s final 3 games after Desmond Ridder played himself out of a job of late. Atlanta’s QB dysfunction should supersede Indy’s team dysfunction and ultimately lead to a loss for the Falcons. Indy’s plus run game combined with at the very least steady Quarterbacking from Gardner Minshew should provide the Colts with the edge here.

• Baltimore Ravens – Spread: +5.5

If the 49ers have an Achilles heel this year, and I’m not entirely sure they even do, it might be facing teams with elite run games. The 49ers are 1-2 when surrendering over 130 rushing yards and 9-1 when they allow fewer. The Ravens are averaging an eye-watering 163.8 yards per game this year which is over 20 yards higher than the second-place team (Detroit). If Lamar and Baltimore can get it going on the ground then the Ravens should make a game of it. I’m not predicting a Christmas miracle win for them, but they should at least be able to keep it within striking distance.

• Dallas Cowboys – Moneyline: +105

The Cowboys have been hard to trust this year, while they’ve looked outright great at times, they’ve dropped the ball when facing better teams. Dallas is 1-4 against teams that currently have a winning record so you might be asking yourself why I would be backing them in this game against the 10-4 Dolphins. Well, it’s simply because Miami is somehow even worse against good teams. The Fins have faced 3 teams this year that currently own winning records and have fallen flat in all three of those games. In fact, the Dolphins failed so hard, that they lost those games by an average of 16.3 points. Tyreek Hill missed last week’s win over the Jets but should be back for this Christmas Eve clash. Even so, Dallas’ secondary should be suitably equipped. We should expect fireworks and a high final scoreline, but I think Dallas emerges as the better of these two potential frauds.

Week 16 lines to bet LATER

• Jacksonville Jaguars – Moneyline: -110

The Jaguars’ season hangs in the balance as they await news of QB Trevor Lawrence’s health. Currently in a playoff spot, another loss this week would put a serious damper on their chances and with Lawrence still in the concussion protocol, it’s difficult to see them winning this game were he not to suit up. Their opponents this week are in a similar scenario as the Buccaneers currently occupy a spot but need to solidify that position with wins down the stretch. Tampa has been a hard team to pin down this year but a massive game from Baker Mayfield in Week 15 is certainly a positive building block. Still, I don’t trust the Bucs’ defence enough to be able to withstand a Jags team with Lawrence at the helm. Should he be cleared to play in this game then I’d confidently back Jacksonville.

Week 16 line that makes me go hmm…

• Tennessee Titans– Moneyline: +125

One home dog I wonder about this week is the Titans. They are firmly in the spoiler role this week after having been officially eliminated from Playoff contention and are hosting the Seahawks on a short week. Seattle is coming off an impressive win over the Eagles are might be due for a letdown. Tennessee is the kind of team that can randomly show up big and I just have a sneaking suspicion that the motivation to give their home fans a little Christmas present in the form of an unlikely win here will be enough to propel them.

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Betting trends of the week

Here are a few trends to keep in mind when placing your bets this week:

• The Cincinnati Bengalshave hit the moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games 🔥
• The Pittsburgh Steelers have only hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 20 games 🧊
• The Los Angeles Chargershave scored first in 14 of their last 19 games 🔥
• The Detroit Lionshave scored first in 8 of their last 17 games 🧊
• The Atlanta Falconshave scored last in 12 of their last 17 games 🔥
• The Indianapolis Coltshave scored first in 5 of their last 17 games 🧊

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Player props to play in Week 16

Here are a few player props I love this week:

• Touchdown Scorers – Anytime – Jake Browning: +450

Browning had rushing touchdowns in two straight before going scoreless in the Bengals’ OT win over the Vikings last week. He’s a good bet to get a scamper score any day and with a win this week, Jake would really have saved the Bengals season. Expect great things.

• Player Rushing Yard Milestones – 100 Yards – Kyren Williams: +125

Over the last 5 games, Williams is averaging 131 yards per game on 21.8 attempts. He’s powering the Rams’ offence right now and seemingly can’t be stopped. 100 yards should be an easy mark to hit this week for Williams.

• Player Receiving Yard Milestones – 100 Yards – CeeDee Lamb: +140

Since I’m picking the Cowboys to win this week I think it stands to reason that I go back to our prop darling CeeDee Lamb. The Dallas receiver has paid off for us a ton this year so why not go back to the well with a simple one? 100-yard receiving in a game that should be an absolute shootout.

⭐ Gold Star Pick ⭐

We’re gonna make a holiday combo platter here of my three bet-now picks. Here’s hoping we get a perfect parlay from Santa this year! 🎁

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