The NFL has gifted its fans the Baltimore Ravens’ game at the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, a potential Super Bowl preview between the most dominant teams in each conference capping off a trio of games on Christmas Day.
How rare is this treat? It’s just the second time in NFL history that teams with sole possession of the best record in each conference played this late in the season. The other was in 2005, when Seattle beat Indianapolis in Week 16.
Bet on Ravens vs. 49ers
The Super Bowl has been played 14 times as a regular-season rematch. At Bet365, these teams are the top two favourites to win it all, with San Francisco (a six-point favourite here) listed at +200 and Baltimore listed at +450, significantly shorter odds than those of the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs (+700).
The game also features a likely MVP showdown between quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy, but the dominance of each defence also can’t be ignored. Baltimore has allowed the fewest points in the NFL at an average of 16.1 per game while San Francisco is second at 16.7.
Put it all together and this has the makings for a holiday classic.
Ravens vs. 49ers odds
| Ravens Moneyline Odds | +210 |
| 49ers Moneyline Odds | -260 |
| Spread odds | 49ers -6.0 |
| Over/Under | 44 points (over -110, under -110) |
| Time/Date | Dec. 25, 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: TSN |
All odds courtesy of 
About the Ravens (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS, 6-8 o/u)
Jackson is playing much as he did the last time he won the MVP, in 2019, after seeing each of his last two seasons cut short by injuries. He also might have the best group of receivers since he has been in Baltimore with rookie Zay Flowers, veteran Odell Beckham Jr., former Eagle Nelson Agholor and longtime Ravens tight end Mark Andrews running routes.
Jackson is Baltimore’s leading rusher, but he also can hand it off to steady veteran Gus Edwards, who has 11 touchdowns, though the loss of big-play threat Keaton Mitchell, who is averaging 8.4 yards per carry, to a knee injury last week will hurt.
The Ravens are averaging 163.8 yards per game on the ground, first in the NFL by more than 20 yards, and they no doubt will look to take advantage of one of the few weaknesses the 49ers have, a so-so run defence. Baltimore is 9-1 this season when it rushes for at least 130 yards and 1-2 when it doesn’t, so getting the ball moving on the ground could be the key to the Ravens’ fate here.
The real strength of this team is its defence, the second-best unit in the game to the Cleveland Browns, who have little offence to speak of. Baltimore mixes up man and zone coverage while alternating blitzing schemes with simulated pressures designed to confuse opposing quarterbacks. Linebacker Roquan Smith and safety Kyle Hamilton are among the best in the game at their positions and hold their pre-snap looks long enough to conceal the defence’s intent.
About the 49ers (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS, 7-6-1 o/u)
If Purdy does win MVP, he would be among the least likely characters ever to do so. The final pick in the 2022 draft – which comes with the nickname “Mr. Irrelevant” – Purdy still doesn’t get the credit he deserves for adeptly distributing the ball to an array of dangerous weapons in Kyle Shanahan’s brilliant offence. The 49ers are 18-4 (.818) with Purdy starting and 5-3 (.625) without him over the past two seasons.
Still, one could make a credible argument that running back Christian McCaffrey is more deserving of the MVP if voters actually awarded the thing to anyone other than quarterbacks these days. Purdy leads the NFL in QB rating, yards per attempt, expected points added per dropback, touchdown passes and touchdown-to-interception ratio, but McCaffrey is first in rushing yards, scrimmage yards, yards after contact and 10-plys yard runs while being tied for first in touchdowns per scrimmage.
It’s a decent debate, but more relevant to this discussion is that the 49ers have both guys, not to mention one of the best receivers in the game in Deebo Samuel, the best blocking-receiving tight end in George Kirby and Brandon Aiyuk, who piled up 126 yards receiving just two weeks ago.
The 49ers also have stars on their defence in pass-rushing ace Nick Bossa and linebacker Fred Warner and the most underrated unit might be the secondary with Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir. To say this is a complete team is an understatement.
Betting Mismatch
The formula is pretty transparent. The Ravens need to do what the Arizona Cardinals did while scoring 29 points in a loss last week: encourage their quarterback to take off with the football. Kyler Murray ran for 49 yards last week and he has nowhere near the speed or elusiveness Jackson possesses. Nor do the Cardinals design as many running players for their quarterback as do the Ravens.
The 49ers occasionally struggle against the run in general and particularly have issues stopping mobile quarterbacks. Jackson is the top dual-threat guy in the NFL. Baltimore averages 5.0 yards per carry, second in the NFL to the Miami Dolphins. The 49ers allow an average of 4.7 yards per carry. Absent their fastest running back, Mitchell, Jackson becomes the most logical choice to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground.
Jackson’s rushing yards prop (59.5 at -110) is the second-highest on the board to McCaffrey, but for Baltimore to win, he might have to top it.
Christian McCaffrey over 84.5 receiving yards
-110
Key Injuries
Aside from Mitchell (knee), who is on injured reserve, Baltimore is relatively healthy. S Marcus Williams (groin) and CB Jalyn Armstrong (concussion) didn’t practice Friday and are questionable. CB Arthur Maulet is also questionable.
The 49ers have a longer list of questionable players: DE Arik Amstead (foot, knee), LB Oren Burks (knee), TE Ross Dwelley (ankle), LT Javon Hargrave (ankle), WR Jauan Jennings (concussion), DE Clelin Ferrell (ankle), RB Elijah Mitchell (knee) and G Ben Bartch (finger).
Weather
It certainly won’t be a white Christmas in Santa Clara, California, but temperatures will dip down to about 9 C during this one, with light winds topping out at about 5 km/h.
Betting Trends
- The line opened at San Francisco -5, inched down to six and stayed there, in part due to questions about injuries to the 49ers defence.
- The 49ers were drawing 54% of the bets and 63% of the money as of mid-week. Volume, as you would expect, was enormous.
- The total crept slowly from 46.5 to 47 and might nudge up again before kickoff. By Friday, 62% of bets and 58% of the money went on the over.
- While the 49ers have won six straight, they covered the spread in only four of those games.
Player Prop Trends
- McCaffrey’s rushing yards (84.5 at -110) may not be set high enough given a trend in Baltimore’s defence. In the first nine weeks, the Ravens ranked eighth in rush EPA per play, but have ranked 31st in that category since.
- Jackson is averaging 19 completions per game, but he could exceed his total (19.5) here given that San Francisco is allowing the second-most completions this season in the NFL. Each of the last three QBs the 49ers have faced has exceeded 22 pass completions.
Wagers To Consider
- Teams with extended rest have tended to go under the total in recent seasons, particularly this year (77%) and both these teams are working with an extra day here. Especially if Baltimore elects to keep the ball on the ground, the clock might move quickly and give teams fewer opportunities for explosive scoring plays. Consider under 47 points in this one.
- Baltimore’s issues stopping the run lately are too extensive to ignore. Given McCaffrey’s trajectory, it’s hard to imagine him not having a massive impact on this game and it likely will be via the ground. Consider taking several of his overs, particularly rushing yards.
