The Buffalo Bills badly need to stabilize themselves during one of the roughest months they’ve faced the past few years while the visiting Denver Broncos are looking to prove their stunning win over the Kansas City Chiefs was less of a fluke than a display of a mid-season turnaround. The teams’ dueling narratives meet in a Monday Night Football game being played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, where the heavily favoured Bills have done their best work this season.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET.
Bet on Broncos vs. Bills
Denver has turned its defensive fortunes around after an embarrassing start to the season and Buffalo has struggled on offence under quarterback Josh Allen in recent games. On the other hand, the Bills have been far more dangerous at home than on the road this season and Denver hasn’t won a prime-time game since 2020, so there are a lot of factors in play going into this Monday night matchup.
Broncos vs. Bills odds
|Broncos Moneyline Odds||+280|
|Bills Moneyline Odds||-360|
|Spread odds||Bills -7 (-115)|
|Over/Under||47.5 points (over -110, under -110)|
|Time/Date||Nov. 13, 8:15 p.m. ET|
About the Broncos (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS, 4-4 o/u)
A 24-9 upset of the Chiefs two weeks ago has Broncos fans feeling a little better about head coach Sean Payton’s first year in Denver. Coming off a bye, picking up a third straight win would really give Denver reason to think it has turned the corner. That 1-5 start, of course, included giving up 70 points to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3.
The win over the Chiefs snapped a 16-game losing streak to the Broncos’ division rival and included Denver’s defence forcing five turnovers. Quarterback Russell Wilson threw three touchdown passes in that game and Denver managed 153 rushing yards on 40 carries. It was, in other words, the most well-rounded game the Broncos have played in years.
Wilson hasn’t been the two-way threat he was in Seattle, where his improvisations were legendary, but he is having a far better second season in Denver. His 16 TD passes already match his number from last season and he has thrown just four interceptions.
The Broncos still rank last in total defence in the NFL, but they have allowed just 15 points and 331 yards per game over the last three games and only Baltimore has been more stingy since Week 6.
Their pass defence (27th) is slightly better than their rush defence (32nd).
About the Bills (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS, 3-6 o/u)
This appears to be a good spot to expect the Buffalo offence to turn around its recent run of lacklustre play. For one thing, Allen looks every bit an MVP candidate at home even if his road woes are well-documented. The Bills rank fifth in scoring offence and Allen leads the NFL with 24 touchdowns, six of them rushing TDs. He also tends to shine after losses, with an .808 winning percentage following losses, the best of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era.
Denver’s best hope in this game is to continue Allen’s trend of throwing far too many interceptions. His nine picks were tied for most in the league entering this week and he has thrown at least one in five straight games.
The Broncos have been winning largely by picking off passes, with five straight games with at least one interception tying them for most in the NFL.
The Bills rank 14th in total defence, but the trend is going the wrong direction due to impactful injuries to linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuon Jones. Now, All-Pro safety Micah Hyde and cornerback Christian Benford have been ruled out for this game with linebacker Terel Bernard questionable as he recovers from a concussion.
Patrick Surtain II is only 23 years old, but he has already built a reputation as one of the finest cornerbacks in the NFL. Shutting down Stefon Diggs will be a different kind of challenge, however, and this matchup could provide plenty of intrigue as well as smack talk over the course of Monday night’s game.
Diggs led the NFL with 70 catches through nine games and his 834 receiving yards rank third in the league. What sets him apart is his consistency. He has had at least six catches and 50 receiving yards in every game this season. Surtain, no doubt, will be looking to end that streak.
Diggs has saved some of his finest performances for prime time and he leads the NFL with 134 receptions and 1,644 receiving yards in night games since 2020. Only Travis Kelce has caught more touchdown passes in prime time over that span.
Surtain and the Denver pass defence are much improved, but look for Diggs to rise to the challenge with the lights on.
Stefon Diggs over 6.5 receptions
Perhaps this uptick in play by the Broncos shouldn’t be surprising since they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. TE Greg Dulcich (hamstring) is on injured reserve, but that is the extent of Denver’s injury report coming out of the bye week.
The Bills’ Saturday injury report included the bad news outlined above, but also had some bright spots. Allen was a full participant in practice all week after missing time in previous weeks with a shoulder injury and Diggs seems fine after missing one day of practice with a sore back. DT Leonard Floyd, S Jordan Poyer and LB Baylen Specter also are expected to play.
Forecasts are calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures of about 8 C at kickoff with winds rippling out of the northwest at about 22 km/h.
- The average point total for Broncos’ games this season is 49.8 while it is 46.1 in Bills’ games.
- The Bills have gone 3-1 this season when favoured by moneyline odds this short or shorter.
- The past three Broncos games have finished under the total. Buffalo has exceeded the total once in its last three games.
- Denver has scored on its opening drive in six of eight games this season.
Player prop trends
- Wilson has finished under his passing attempts prop in five straight games. The number is set at 29.5 (under -120) attempts in this one.
- Wilson and Courtland Sutton are beginning to click judging by the fact Sutton has scored in three straight games. Sutton is +240 to reach the end zone in this game.
- Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin is averaging 49.6 rushing yards per game over his last five games and has rushed for no less than 30 yards in each game during that span. He’s -110 to record over 17.5 rushing yards.
Wagers to consider
- Given Allen’s recent propensity for throwing interceptions and the Broncos’ secondary finding its groove, this appears to be a good spot to bet on Allen to throw a pick. It will require laying odds of -140 that it will happen, however.
- As good as Buffalo has been at home, those defensive injuries are beginning to take a serious toll. Denver is playing better and had extra time to prepare for this game. It seems like this Monday night game is an opportunity for the Broncos to stay close with another contender and, perhaps, pull another stunner.