Our Marlins vs. Blue Jays prediction for Monday night centres around a compelling pitching matchup and a Toronto team that continues to keep afloat despite ongoing injury concerns. With the Blue Jays hovering near .500 and showing signs of momentum, they’ll look to capitalize on a favourable spot at home against a Miami squad that has struggled on the road this season.
All eyes will be on Trey Yesavage, who has quietly emerged as one of the most dominant young arms in baseball. As he ramps back up to a full workload, this matchup presents a strong opportunity for bettors targeting player props, particularly in the outs recorded market against a Marlins lineup that has yet to face him.
Marlins vs. Blue Jays prediction
Trey Yesavage over 15.5 outs recorded: -125 @ Bet99
Yesavage over 15.5 outs recorded
The Blue Jays used caution with Yesavage’s pitch count while he ramped back up coming off the injured list, as the right-hander didn’t top 88 pitches over his first four starts of the season. However, he pushed to 95 pitches last time he took the mound against the Yankees and appears ready for a full workload and 100+ pitches on Monday night.
This fact may be overlooked at some of the best MLB betting sites, which means we’re getting good value on this 15.5 outs recorded line at -125 odds. Yesavage has recorded 18 outs in each of his last two outings despite his monitored pitch count, and it won’t be long until this line is routinely at 17.5 or 18.5 outs recorded if he keeps pitching effectively.
Yesavage has been simply dominant through five starts, owning a sparkling 1.07 ERA while holding the opposition to a .207 batting average. He’s yet to allow a home run over 25 1/3 innings.
Additionally, Yesavage will have the element of surprise on Monday, as only one Marlins player (Christopher Morel) has previous at-bats against him. His extreme over-the-top delivery and lethal splitter has routinely baffled the opposition the first few times through the lineup, and we should expect the same on Monday night against a mediocre Miami lineup.
Greg’s Blue Jays predictions have gone 13-8-2 for +2.89 units this season.
Marlins vs. Blue Jays odds
| Marlins moneyline odds | +145 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -170 |
| Run line odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+130), Marlins +1.5 (-155) |
| Game total | Over 7.5 runs (-110), Under 7.5 (-110) |
| Date/time | May 25, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Betting the Marlins (25-29 SU, 24-30 ATS, 32-30-2 o/u)
The Marlins enter this series with some momentum after earning a three-game sweep over the struggling New York Mets over the weekend. Miami outscored New York 10-2 in that series, as the pitching staff endured its finest series to this point in the season.
Bettors should know that this team loves to steal bases, leading the league in that statistical category with 62 to this point in the season. Five players have five steals or more, with outfielder Jakob Marsee leading the way with 13.
However, Yesavage has been excellent at holding runners on this season, limiting the opposition to just one stolen base across 25 1/3 innings.
Betting the Blue Jays (25-28 SU, 26-27 ATS, 25-27-1 o/u)
A quick glance at Toronto’s 25-28 record would suggest the team has underperformed to this point in the season, but it’s actually quite impressive that this team has managed to float near the .500 mark given the devastating amount of injuries to key players.
Both Dylan Cease (hamstring) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (elbow) left Sunday’s 4-1 to the Pittsburgh Pirates with injuries, but early indications suggest both injuries aren’t serious, and Guerrero Jr. has a chance of suiting up on Monday against Miami.
Toronto took two of three games from the Pirates over the weekend, roughing up NL Cy Young candidate Paul Skenes in the process on Saturday.
The Blue Jays are 6-4 in their last 10 games, winning two of their last three series while also earning a four-game split at Yankee Stadium in that span.
Probable starting pitchers
Miami: RHP Janson Junk (2-5, 5.07 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6.55 K/9)
Junk has been horrific over his last two outings, allowing 15 earned runs on 18 hits over 10 2/3 innings to the Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays.
However, he posted a very respectable 2-2 record with a 2.83 ERA across five April starts, holding opponents to a .210 batting average.
Junk boasts an elite 5.6% walk rate (90th percentile in the majors), but his 17.2% strikeout rate (19th percentile) is far from average.
Toronto: RHP Trey Yesavage (2-1, 1.07 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.3 K/9)
Yesavage has been simply spectacular across his five starts for the Blue Jays this season, holding the opposition to one run or less in four of those five outings.
He’s coming off a dominant start against the New York Yankees, who managed just two hits and failed to score a run against the young right-hander while striking out eight times over six innings.
Yesavage’s unique over-the-top release point and devastating splitter have baffled hitters since his debut last season, and he’s been especially difficult on batters seeing him for the first few times. He’ll have the element of surprise on the overwhelming majority of Miami’s lineup on Monday night, as only Christopher Morel has previous at-bats against him (0-for-2).
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Miami:
- P Adam Mazur (elbow)
- OF Griffin Conine (hamstring)
- P Ronny Henriquez (elbow)
- IF Leo Jimenez (concussion)
- P Robby Snelling (elbow)
IF Connor Norby is day-to-day with an elbow injury.
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- C Alejandro Kirk (thumb)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Shane Bieber (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
- OF Nathan Lukes (hamstring) – could be activated prior to Monday’s game
- P Max Scherzer (forearm)
- OF Addison Barger (arm)
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (elbow) and P Dylan Cease (hamstring) are considered day-to-day.
Weather
It’s very possible that we see the retractable dome at Rogers Centre open for the first time this season. Forecasts are calling for evening temperatures around 18 C with light winds blowing out to centre field at 6 mph.
Marlins vs. Blue Jays betting trends
- The under is 4-0-1 in Toronto’s last five games.
- The Marlins are a miserable 7-14 SU on the road this season and 6-12 SU against AL opponents.
- The Marlins have played under the game total in three straight games after playing over it in nine straight contests.
Marlins vs. Blue Jays player prop trends
- Yesavage has recorded six strikeouts or more in four of his five starts this season, averaging 5.8 per game in that span. He’s around -150 to amass over 5.5 strikeouts.
- Yesavage has allowed one run or less in four of his five starts this season and is +110 to surrender under 1.5 earned runs.
- Blue Jays infielder Ernie Clement is riding a seven-game hitting streak into action Monday and is around -220 to extend that streak.
- Guerrero Jr. has scored a run in four consecutive games and is around +115 to extend that streak if he suits up Monday. He’s scored a run in 49% of his games this season.
