Our Blue Jays vs. Padres prediction focuses on the opening game of an intriguing interleague series as Toronto wraps up its West Coast trip against a San Diego club looking to halt its recent slide. The Blue Jays enter with momentum after taking two of three from the Giants, while the Padres have struggled to generate offence despite strong pitching and defence.
Below, you’ll find our best Blue Jays vs. Padres picks, player props, updated odds, and key betting trends for Friday night’s matchup, including why we’re fading Toronto starter Shane Bieber in his latest outing.
Blue Jays vs. Padres prediction
Shane Bieber under 16.5 outs recorded: -110 best odds @ Betano
Bieber under 16.5 pitching outs
Bieber was shelled for seven runs on six hits over four innings the last time he took the mound against the Mariners, so he won’t be bringing much confidence into this start against the Padres.
The veteran right-hander has failed to record over 16 outs in each of his three starts this season and in six straight outings dating back to the playoffs last season.
But the real reason why we’re backing another short outing from Bieber on Friday against the Padres is because Toronto’s bullpen is fully rested heading into this three-game series prior to the All-Star break. Tyler Rogers (four pitches) is the only Blue Jays reliever to work over the last two days, as Toronto enjoyed the day off Thursday after getting a lengthy outing from starting pitcher Dylan Cease on Wednesday vs. the Giants.
That means manager John Schneider won’t hesitate to give Bieber the early hook at the first sign of trouble in this contest, especially considering a four-day break is on the horizon for his bullpen next week when the league pauses for All-Star festivities.
Bieber’s struggles this season combined with the fact that Toronto’s bullpen is rested and ready to answer the call gives this player prop great value at -110 odds.
As always, shop around for the best MLB odds at the best MLB betting sites before locking in your wagers on any of our predictions.
Greg’s Blue Jays predictions are 20-16-2 for +3.58 units this season.
Blue Jays vs. Padres odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -105 |
| Padres moneyline odds | -115 |
| Run line odds | Padres -1.5 (+175), Blue Jays +1.5 (-210) |
| Game total | Over 8.5 runs (-105), Under 8.5 (-115) |
| Date/time | July 10, 9:40 p.m. ET |
Betting the Blue Jays (44-49 SU, 44-49 ATS, 49-43-1 o/u)
The Blue Jays took two of three from the San Francisco Giants earlier this week to improve to 3-3 on their current West Coast trip, outscoring the Giants 19-3 in the final two games of that series.
Toronto will also have a significant rest advantage in this matchup, having a day off Thursday while the Padres battled the D-Backs. Its bullpen is in fantastic shape after Dylan Cease pitched into the ninth inning on Wednesday, so manager John Schneider has a full array of options at his disposal on Friday night.
Overall, Toronto has struggled to score on the road this season, averaging just 3.84 runs per game, which ranks as the third-worst mark in the majors.
Betting the Padres (46-47 SU, 51-42 ATS, 40-52-1 o/u)
The All-Star break can’t come soon enough for the Padres, who have lost 10 of their last 13 games entering this three-game set with Toronto before the break. They did manage to earn a four-game split with the Diamondbacks earlier this week, though, suggesting the bleeding has stopped, at least for now.
This team absolutely stinks offensively, ranking dead last in the majors in runs per game (3.9), hits per game (7.4), team batting average (.225), on-base percentage (.300), and OPS (.671).
San Diego does boast the second-best fielding percentage (.990) in the majors, and its pitching staff owns a respectable 4.20 ERA (13th in MLB).
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Shane Bieber (0-1, 9.00 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, 6.23 K/9)
Bieber is coming off a disastrous outing against the Seattle Mariners, who banged him around for seven runs on six hits, including two homers. The righty has allowed six homers over 13 innings of work this season, which is troubling entering this start.
Bieber’s fastball and changeup have solid advanced metrics this season, but his breaking pitches are being hammered by the opposition, with xBAs of .453 off his knuckle curve, .399 against his cutter, and .667 on his slider.
Right-handed batters are slashing .444/.483/.852 with a 1.335 OPS against him in a small sample size this season.
San Diego: LHP JP Sears (2-1, 4.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.22 K/9)
Sears will be making just his fourth start of the season, and he’s coming off a dominant outing against the stacked Los Angeles Dodgers, who managed just one hit over five scoreless innings against the southpaw.
Sears features a rising four-seam fastball, a sharp sweeper, and a solid changeup, but he doesn’t overpower with his velocity (average fastball is 93 mph). His sweeper is his best pitch with a 38.5% whiff rate and 40% putaway rate.
The Blue Jays have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching this year, ranking near the bottom of the majors with a .218/.294/.358 slash line with a .652 OPS against southpaws.
Notable injuries
The following notable players are on the injured list for the Blue Jays:
- P Max Scherzer (back)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- OF Jesus Sanchez (ankle)
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Joe Mantiply (knee)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
- IF Lenyn Sosa (wrist)
The following notable players are on the injured list for San Diego:
- P Randy Vasquez (ankle)
- C Freddy Fermin (head)
- OF Samad Taylor (oblique)
- P Jason Adam (shoulder)
- P Matt Waldron (forearm)
- P Jeremiah Estrada (knee)
- P Lucas Giolito (elbow)
- P Nick Pivetta (forearm)
- P Joe Musgrove (elbow)
- OF Ramon Laureano (labrum)
- P Yu Darvish (elbow)
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 20 C and clear skies this evening in San Diego. Winds will blow out to right field at 6 mph.
Blue Jays vs. Padres betting trends
- The Padres have hit the game total under in 20 of their last 20 home games.
- The Blue Jays have covered the run line in 16 of their last 24 road games.
- The over is 4-1 in Toronto’s last five games.
- The under is 6-1 in San Diego’s last seven games.
- Toronto is 6-1 SU in the past seven meetings between these teams.
Blue Jays vs. Padres player prop trends
- Sears has struck out four or more batters in all three of his starts this season, averaging 4.7 per game. He’s -120 to record over 3.5 strikeouts on Friday.
- Kazuma Okamoto has homered in two of his last three games and is around +275 to homer in this contest.
- George Springer (-190 to get a hit), Ernie Clement (-240), and Nathan Lukes (-170) have all hit safely in four straight games.
- Xander Bogaerts has solid career numbers against Bieber, hitting .354 with a 1.144 OPS and one home run in 11 ABs.
