Breeders' Cup Entries and Picks 2019
The 2019 Breeders' Cup entries have been announced and the start of the World Championships is drawing near.
We have previews of some of the biggest races of the weekend, including horses who may run in the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks next year.
The previews include Breeders' Cup odds for the top runners and some longshots who are worth a look.
If you are looking for horse racing odds for other races, check out our dedicated page for this amazing sport. We also offer a free picks section, dedicated to betting picks on all and every sport on the planet.
- 01Juvenile Success Equals Kentucky Derby Appearance
- 02Hammer the Europeans in Juvenile Turf
- 03Take Value over Favorites in Juvenile Fillies
Juvenile Success Equals Kentucky Derby Appearance
Each of the last four horses to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Nyquist, Classic Empire, Good Magic, and Game Winner) made it into the Kentucky Derby start gate in the next year.
Nyquist took home the Derby in 2016, the last of his eight straight wins, for trainer Doug O’Neill. Classic Empire was fourth in 2017 for trainer Mark Casse, Good Magic was second in 2018 for trainer Chad Brow, and Game Winner was sixth this year for trainer Bob Baffert.
However, the last four horses to finish second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile - Swipe, Not This Time, Solomini, and Knicks Go - have not returned to win any big races afterward.
The current Bodog betting favorites are Eight Rings (+200), Dennis’ Moment (+225), and Maxfield (+250). Dennis’ Moment and Maxfield are shipping west from Kentucky for trainers Dale Romans and Brendan Walsh, respectively, but Eight Rings is based at Santa Anita Park with trainer Bob Baffert and carries the home advantage.
Speed horses are winning at a high rate on Santa Anita Park’s main track. That favors Eight Rings and Dennis’ Moment, who both like to be close to the early lead, but that also harms Maxfield, who likes to trail early and make one big run from the back.
Eight Rings and Dennis’ Moment own the two highest Beyer speed figures in the field, having earned a 94 and a 97, respectively. One longshot worth a look is Scabbard (+900), for trainer Eddie Kenneally.
After winning his debut race, Scabbard finished second in the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and again in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) behind Dennis’ Moment.
Recommended Bets: Win on Eight Rings; Exacta Box with Eight Rings and Dennis’ Moment; Trifecta Box keying Eight Rings over Dennis’ Moment, Maxfield, and Scabbard.
Hammer the Europeans in Juvenile Turf
European-based horses have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf 10 times in the history of the race (12 total).
Trainer Aidan O’Brien and Jockey Ryan Moore lead their respective categories with four wins each. The pair first found success in the race in 2011 with Wrote, then repeated the following year with George Vancouver.
They returned to the winner’s circle in 2015 with Hit It a Bomb and in 2017 with Mendelssohn. The only American-based horses to have won are Pluck (in 2010 for trainer Todd Pletcher), Hootenanny (in 2014 for trainer Wesley Ward), and Oscar Performance (in 2016 for trainer Brian Lynch).
The current betting favorites are Arizona (+250), Decorated Invader (+450), and Structor (+800). Aidan O’Brien trains Arizona, who won the Coventry Stakes (G2) at the Royal Ascot in meet but has not found success in three subsequent races.
Decorated Invader won the Summer Stakes (G1) at Woodbine for trainer Christophe Clement. Despite being the top turf trainer in America, Chad Brown has yet to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He conditions Structor, who is perfect in two starts including the Pilgrim Stakes (G3) at Belmont Park.
Arizona owns the field’s highest Timeform Rating (108), while Structor holds the co-top Beyer speed figure (82) with Andesite (+1600), who he defeated by a head in the Pilgrim.
The American horses look stronger this year than they have in years past, but historical trends suggest that betting the top European horses is the secret to long-term financial success in this race.
Recommended Bets: Win on Arizona; Trifecta Box with Arizona, Decorated Invader, Structor, and Andesite.
Take Value over Favorites in Juvenile Fillies
Only once in the last seven years (14%), and just three times in the last 10 years (30%), has the post-time favorite won the Juvenile Fillies. The three who did it were Songbird (in 2015 for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer), My Miss Aurelia (in 2011 for trainer Steve Asmussen), and Awesome Feather (in 2010 for trainer Stanley Gold).
The last horse to win the Juvenile Fillies and then the Kentucky Oaks was Silverbulletday (in 1998 for trainer Bob Baffert). Mike Smith has the most wins (3) of any jockey: Caledonia Road (in 2017 for trainer Ralph Nicks), Songbird, and Stardom Bound (in 2008 for trainer Christopher Paasch).
The current betting favorites are Bast (+275), Donna Veloce (+300), and British Idiom (+400). The Santa Anita Park based trainer Bob Baffert has won it twice: in 1998 with Silverbulletday and in 2007 with Indian Blessing.
Both fillies were the favorites in their respective years, going off at odds of +170 and +180, respectively.
Baffert will saddle Bast in this year’s edition. If Donna Veloce wins, she will be the first to ever do it off of just one career start. She won at Santa Anita Park in her debut, earning a 91 Beyer speed figure while winning a 6 1/2-furlong sprint by over 9 lengths. Bast and Donna Veloce are both daughters of Uncle Mo, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2010.
British Idiom is perfect in two career starts, including the Darley Alcibiades Stakes (G1) at Keeneland last time out. Her trainer, Brad Cox, won his first Breeders’ Cup event last year when Monomoy Girl took home the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
A longshot on the rise is Lazy Daisy (+1000), for trainer Doug O'Neill. After winning her debut, Lazy Daisy finished fourth behind Bast in the Del Mar Debutante (G1). Lazy Daisy then traveled to Churchill Downs (the site of the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks) and won the Pocahontas Stakes (G2).
Recommended Bets: Win on Lazy Daisy; Exacta Box with Lazy Daisy and Bast.