In this article, we’ll outline our best Canadiens vs. Hurricanes prediction for Game 1, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams, so you can place a winning wager with any of the best NHL betting sites.
The Montreal Canadiens ultimately did just enough to earn another marginal win in Game 7 on Monday, and as you would expect, are massive underdogs in the series versus a Carolina Hurricanes side that has cruised to this point with two consecutive sweeps.
Montreal has arguably knocked off two superior teams compared to either of the opponents Carolina has faced, but has done so in less convincing fashion. Carolina has not played a game since May 9th, which does mean a gigantic rest advantage, but also the potential of a little rust entering Game 1.
After cashing our pre-series bet on Cole Caufield to record two or more shots in every game of Round Two, our Canadiens picks this postseason now hold a record of 8-3 and +9.45 units. We will look to keep building on that mark by backing Jakub Dobes to make 30+ saves at +100.
Canadiens vs Hurricanes Prediction: Jakub Dobes 30+ Saves (+100)
To some extent, the idea that Carolina has not yet faced a quality opponent seems to be oversold. Maybe the Senators ultimately were a little weaker than their underlying metrics suggested, but based on pre-playoff NHL odds, oddsmakers did power-rate the Senators as the third-best team in the East.
Ottawa held the best xGA/60 rating in the NHL this season. The last seven Stanley Cup winners hold an average rank of 5.42 in that statistic. The Sens also allowed 23.91 shots against per 60 this season, which was second only to Carolina.
Despite Ottawa’s defensive dominance, Carolina played to a 61.62% expected goal share in Round 1, and generated 29.96 shots per 60. The Flyers were also excellent defensively following the Olympic break, and Carolina generated 31.12 shots per 60 against them in Round Two.
So while Carolina may not have faced a murderers’ row of opponents, both teams they faced were in dominant defensive form prior to the series, and it still managed to generate a ton of scoring chances with its trademark approach of furious pressure all over the ice, producing a wealth of medium-danger chances.
Dobes has been excellent thus far this postseason and could be an “X-factor” if Frederik Andersen is unable to regain his groove after a lengthy layoff.
Maybe the Canadiens will find a way to manage the right combination of timely scoring and excellent goaltending to hang around in this series, but it seems quite likely that Dobes will face a hefty workload versus a rested Hurricanes side in Game 1. He should be able to make all the saves he is supposed to, and that provides faith that the game script will be close enough that Carolina is forced to keep its foot on the gas.
Jakub Dobes 30+ Saves
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Odds
| Canadiens Moneyline odds | +165 |
| Hurricanes Moneyline odds | –200 |
| Puck Line Odds | Canadiens +1.5 (–155), Hurricanes -1.5 (+130) |
| Series Winner Odds | Canadiens (+215), Hurricanes (-260) |
| Goal Total | Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Montreal Canadiens
Two things can be true: the Canadiens have had some fortunate luck to arrive at this point, but they have also done a good job of owning the key moments in both series, while no team needs to apologize for having a superior goaltender than their opponents.
The majority of the previous two series have been quite competitive, and both series arriving to a Game 7 was quite reasonable given the way the series were contested on a game-by-game basis. But from someone who’s written favourably on the Habs all year, you would have to be a complete Canadiens homer to think they weren’t somewhat lucky to win both of those Game 7’s.
The Canadiens have played to a score-adjusted expected goal share of 48.32% this postseason. On average, they really have not been outplayed overly significantly, but they have consistently relented when protecting leads, while the nature of their two Game 7 wins naturally sticks out for many observers.
Nick Suzuki’s line has been outscored 10 to 3 in five-on-five play, while Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Ivan Demidov have combined for just four five-on-five points. Five-on-five scoring dries up this time of year, and these types of statistics are seemingly more common than people expect.
Still, in this series the Canadiens will likely need their top forwards to be more productive at even strength, because Carolina’s depth appears to be a major strength, and the Canadiens may not be able to count on production from the bottom six to get through this series.
The Canadiens offer the most talented power play unit that Carolina has faced this postseason, but the Hurricanes’ penalty kill has looked razor-sharp while killing off 95% of opportunities this postseason. Special teams is an area where the Canadiens will likely need to gain some ground in the series, as they will likely not carry much of the overall play at even strength.
Montreal did go 3-0 versus Carolina in the regular season, but historically, regular-season head-to-head results are not much of an indicator of the outcome of a playoff series. It did light up the Hurricanes’ goaltenders in those matchups when the Canadiens were heavily outchanced, and it doesn’t feel like an entirely unrealistic storyline for Andersen to start slow in this series and lose confidence.
Betting Carolina Hurricanes
Goaltending is the most difficult part of any team to project. As we touched on at the start of the postseason, regular-season success is a drastically less sound indicator of which goaltenders will get hot in the postseason than is generally expected by the average observer.
Two of the four remaining goaltenders are a great case in point towards the volatility of projecting playoff goaltending, as Andersen and Hart have both been exceptional to this point, after being viewed as the main arguments why the Hurricanes and Golden Knights were fraudulent.
In Andersen’s case, he’s arrived at this stage of the postseason with dominant numbers before, before fizzling out in the Eastern Conference Final. While that is a concern, it does seem fair to say that the Canadiens are, on paper, the softest matchup he has faced in the ECF.
As we touched on at the start of the postseason, it seemed unfair how much doubt was being placed on the Hurricanes for losing in the Eastern Conference Finals, compared to the extremely well-rounded Florida Panthers teams in previous years, when the majority of teams in the mix out East this year are entirely unproven.
Whether that point proves true remains to be seen, given that this is the point at which Carolina’s previous postseasons under Rod Brind’Amour have fallen apart.
But on paper, this seems to be the best Hurricanes roster we have seen during the Brind’Amour era, and so long as the goaltending holds up, they should prove to be a very tough out. The second line of Logan Stankoven, Taylor Hall, and Jackson Blake has been incredible this postseason, while Nikolaj Ehlers, Jordan Staal, and Jordan Martinook have formed a very strong shutdown unit.
Like Montreal, Carolina’s greatest concern to this point has been the five-on-five play of its top unit of Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, and Andrei Svechnikov. It’s not unrealistic to think that Suzuki’s line can outproduce the Hurricanes’ top unit, and that seems to be one factor that needs to break Montreal’s way, as Carolina’s middle six is drastically better than what Montreal has faced off against thus far.
