After an enthralling Olympic tournament, the NHL schedule will resume Wednesday with an eight-game slate. Between Wednesday and April 16th, teams will play roughly 30% of their 82-game season. The condensed schedule and ultra-competitive playoff races should help provide an exciting and chaotic finish to the season, and many of the teams in the hunt could see their chances completely swing in short order.
In this article, we’ll touch on “To Make or Miss Playoffs” betting odds, as well as the Hart Trophy race, which may not be as much of a foregone conclusion as online sportsbooks are expecting.
To Make of Miss the Playoffs Best Bets
Chances are that out of the 16 teams currently holding down playoff spots, we will see at least one or two fall out down the stretch. In both conferences, there is some meaningful pressure coming from teams currently not holding a spot, and any meaningful lapse in form could prove disastrous for teams right in the thick of the race. Plenty of GMs will have tough decisions ahead of the March 6 trade deadline as a result.
In this guide, I’ll analyze the betting odds for the majority of the teams in the Wild Card mix and give a verdict on my lean from a betting perspective, starting with my favourite bet at the time of writing.
Western Conference Best Bet: Seattle Kraken to Make Playoffs +135
Kraken to make the playoffs
Oddsmakers did not believe in the Seattle Kraken to start the season. With a betting total of just 78.5 points, they made the cut for my preseason futures piece outlining potential overachievers. The preseason perception of the Kraken is relevant to the current price, as these prices do put some weight into a given team’s priors and preseason expectations.
Aside from my preseason piece outlining the Kraken to go over a low total of 78.5 points, I’ve been pretty hard on Seattle in my content and have thought it is relatively fraudulent. The Kraken rank 31st in expected goal share this season and do feature the type of dynamic offensive talents you would expect to see on a “model-breaker” that is outperforming its analytics.
While we aren’t going to boost how good the Kraken may actually be for the sake of this article, their position in a soft Western Conference is quietly quite excellent, and due to the lack of depth, it may not take an overly strong finish from Seattle to hold onto one of the eight spots.
The Kraken currently sit in the Pacific Division’s third seed with 63 points through 56 games, only one point back of the Edmonton Oilers, having played two less games. The Utah Mammoth hold the top Wild Card seed with 64 points through 57 games, while the Anaheim Ducks hold the second Wild Card spot with 63 points in 56 games.
Considering the Kraken are legitimately in the mix for one of four spots, this price starts to look pretty appealing when you consider the pack of teams pressing to find their way into the playoffs.
Betting on the Los Angeles Kings to miss at +180 is my second favourite bet in this market. They made a huge acquisition in bringing in a full-fledged superstar in Artemi Panarin, but the case for the current price seems to be greatly reliant on the expectation of a huge impact from Panarin.
Panarin will surely be impactful, but the Kings have scored just 2.54 goals per game, and Panarin’s loss now needs to greatly outweigh the loss of Kevin Fiala, who got hurt during the Olympics and will miss the rest of the season. Head coach Jim Hiller does not seem to be overly sharp either, and it seems that for the Kings to be this favoured to get in at this point, oddsmakers are really banking on some incredible play from Panarin.
The San Jose Sharks offer an exciting and lovable story, and as we will touch on later on in this guide, Macklin Celebrini could steal the Hart Trophy if they are to sneak in. Though Celebrini has been incredible, the Sharks sit three points back of the final playoff spot and have some meaningful flaws further down the roster.
Over the last 15 games, the Sharks have played to a 44.73% expected goal share, which is a hair worse than the Kraken’s mark. The eye test suggests that it is not that surprising, given that Seattle’s defensive play does look far superior, even if its lack of high-end offensive talent is a big concern.
The Nashville Predators are also in the mix having played to a record of 18-11-1 since December 1st, and like the Kraken, have a soft schedule down the stretch. They are priced at +240 to get in, which would be my preferred option in terms of betting on any of the teams out of the mix out West to sneak in.
The Kraken have the 10th-easiest remaining schedule, which should help them coax their lead in the race across the finish line. They have zero needle-moving skaters on the IR coming out of the break. They also have two goaltenders with above-average statistics this season in Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer, which could prove to be a notable edge as we get into a highly condensed schedule for the final seven weeks of the season.
A price of +135 implies the Kraken has a 42.5% chance of getting in. I’m not in love with their team, but with a soft schedule and favourable situation, there seems to be a strong case that Seattle’s chances of earning a playoff berth are closer to 50-50, and that means there’s substantial value at +135.
Eastern Conference
The Eastern Conference playoff race is arguably a fair bit more interesting than the West, as not only is it tightly congested, but the teams outside of the mix look quite formidable and may have a shot of making some noise in the playoffs. As I don’t have a bet relating to the East, we will keep this breakdown concise and simply touch on the prices with the most pertinent thoughts.
Oddsmakers are holding true in their stance that the Boston Bruins are not as good as their record suggests, as the Bruins are priced at +110 to get in despite holding a four-point lead over the Columbus Blue Jackets and Washington Capitals. Boston ranks 29th in expected goal share this season, and because the Blue Jackets, Capitals and arguably even Ottawa Senators look to be at least as strong as Boston, it’s still considered to be slightly more likely that one of those teams tracks Boston down and takes the final spot.
The scorching hot Blue Jackets are priced at -130 to make the playoffs, having earned 10 wins in 11 games since Rick Bowness took over as head coach. Bowness has clearly upgraded the level of positivity around the team, as well as skater usage. It’s also fair to say the Blue Jackets were probably better than was credited while Dean Evason was still head coach, based on their solid underlying profile.
Though the Blue Jackets are on fire under Bowness, they do hold the sixth-toughest remaining schedule and will likely need to play to earn 32-34 points from their final 26 games in order to get in. For that reason, betting on them to get in at -130 does not look to offer any value.
Backing the New York Islanders (+135 to miss) or Pittsburgh Penguins (+240 to miss) is likely among the more popular angles involving the Eastern Conference playoff race. Betting on Pittsburgh to miss, in particular, will likely become a very popular angle if it becomes confirmed that Sidney Crosby is to miss a significant period of time, given that the Penguins also hold the toughest remaining schedule on paper.
Though Crosby’s absence would obviously be significant, I’m not sure it would be backbreaking for a Penguins side that is currently quite well-situated with 70 points through 56 games. They were able to handle the loss of Evgeni Malkin quite well earlier in the year, and though Crosby’s loss is more significant, Malkin has been in excellent form recently playing alongside Yegor Chinakhov. The Penguins hold the sixth-best expected goal share in the NHL and have quietly been a pretty well balanced team.
Hart Trophy Race Best Bet: Connor McDavid +1000
McDavid to win Hart Trophy
Nathan MacKinnon is on pace to author one of the best seasons in the modern era, with 40 goals and 93 points in 55 games, which is a major reason the Colorado Avalanche are atop the NHL with a record of 37-9-9. I’m in agreement that he has been the best skater in the NHL so far this season.
I’m not so sure that McDavid is far enough behind in this race for the price to be this long, however, when it is the game’s best player trying to close the gap. McDavid currently has 34 goals and 96 points, having played three more games than MacKinnon. Chances are the surface-level statistics are quite close by the end of the year.
In terms of who is truly more valuable to their respective team, as the award is outlined, the case for McDavid and MacKinnon also may ultimately be viewed somewhat evenly when the 82-game schedule is complete. MacKinnon is the main reason the Avalanche have been so dominant and his five-on-five impact has been outstanding. Still, it seems reasonable to infer that this year’s Edmonton Oilers side might suffer at least the same drop-off without McDavid that the Avs would without MacKinnon, and I question if the Avs are to potentially come in with a more modest point total than once was expected if McDavid carrying the Oilers into the playoffs will not be viewed as equally impressive.
And though it should not theoretically apply to voters’ mindsets, it may not necessarily hurt McDavid’s case that he outperformed MacKinnon by a wide margin on the huge stage that was the Olympics.
Based on the truest sense of the award description (skater most valuable to their team), Macklin Celebrini (+290) also has a really strong case for carrying the Sharks anywhere close to a playoff berth. With 15 fewer points than McDavid currently, though, Celebrini’s case will only be viable to voters if the Sharks make the playoffs, even if it is kind of silly to look at it that way.
So though MacKinnon has outperformed McDavid this season, and Celebrini may ultimately have a solid case, I’m not entirely sold that the price for McDavid should be all the way up at +1000 given the chance that he ends up with slightly superior production skating on an extremely top heavy Oilers side.
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