The Bell Centre will be buzzing Friday night when the Montreal Canadiens return home to host the Tampa Bay Lightning after succeeding in earning a split on the road in Games 1 and 2. This series between two 106-point teams has more than lived up to the hype thus far and has arguably been the most exciting of any of the eight opening round matchups, so you won’t want to miss our Lightning vs. Canadiens prediction.
The Canadiens closed at +160 in Game 2 after earning an overtime win in Game 1, and were once again able to go step-for-step with the Lightning despite being a heavy underdog. Montreal is only a slight underdog of +100 in Game 3, which is in part due to the fact that it now holds home-ice advantage, but also likely also due to the fact that the Canadiens have played more even with the Lightning than was expected entering the series.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Prediction
Regulation Tie +300 (Play to +290)
Game to go to overtime
Our best bet on Game 2 got home at +320, as for a second straight game these teams played an evenly contested matchup that required overtime. While it may seem a little lazy to simply employ the same pick once again, it once again seems highly unlikely to me that we will see either side able to significantly outplay the other in Game 3.
That should mean close scorelines throughout the game, keeping the potential of overtime in play at a very long price.
The Lightning dominated the overtime session of Game 2, but those seven minutes and change were truly the only period where Tampa Bay has looked head and shoulders above Montreal in this series.
We were high on a belief that the Canadiens would hang tough in this series, but it’s still been surprising that they have arguably generated a greater output of meaningful scoring chances. Montreal currently leads 28-13 in high-danger scoring chances across all strengths but trails 56-47 in total scoring chances.
The eye-test suggests that both games of this series have been quite evenly contested, and the numbers agree with that sentiment. Neither team has managed a two-goal lead to this point, and sequences where either team clearly had the upper hand for a notable period of play have been rare.
Be sure to shop around and get the most favourable odds at the best NHL betting sites prior to locking in your wagers.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Odds
| Lightning moneyline odds | -120 |
| Canadiens moneyline odds | +100 |
| Puck Line odds | Lightning -1.5 (+200), Canadiens +1.5 (-245) |
| Series odds | Lightning (-185), Canadiens (+155) |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning were able to shut down the Canadiens’ high-powered top line at even strength on home ice in Games 1 and 2, as they limited the trio of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky to only 0.67 xGF/60, and zero goals where it counts. They were one of the best defensive teams in the league at even strength in the regular season, and Montreal’s top trio struggled mightily versus the elite shutdown line of Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Jake Guentzel.
Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point have combined for just one point at even strength though, and the Canadiens have done a similarly strong job of checking Tampa Bay’s top offensive duo. That concern would be more livable for the Lightning if their bottom two units had not been outperformed by the Canadiens’ bottom six thus far in this series.
Tampa Bay has consistently been forced to shuffle its defensive core all season long due to injuries, and has proven to hold eight solid options on the back end, which is currently an important note with Victor Hedman and Charle-Edouard D’Astous sidelined.
Hedman has struggled throughout much of the season but is obviously still a notable loss, but the importance of D’Astous’ absence is likely flying under the radar, as the 28-year-old has quietly offered excellent results this season.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has played to a +0.2 GSAx and .870 save percentage in the first two games of this series. By no means has the potential Vezina winner been bad, but Jakub Dobes has matched him step for step, taking away one of the Lightning’s perceived advantages.
Betting Montreal Canadiens
Though the second half of Game 2 was a disappointment, head coach Martin St. Louis will certainly be pleased with his team’s overall compete level thus far and happy to return home with a split.
Brandon Hagel’s fight with Juraj Slafkovsky did feel like a turning point in Game 2, but the Canadiens have not appeared overmatched physically in this series and should be capable of matching Tampa Bay in that regard.
Josh Anderson has clearly been highly engaged all over the ice and has really elevated his game relative to the regular season. He’s scored the Canadiens’ only two five-on-five goals and has been dragging his team into the fight from a physical perspective. Anderson is reportedly fine after taking a questionable hit from Scott Sabourin late in the third period Tuesday, and will likely remain on a fourth line that has been highly effective alongside Phillip Danault and Jake Evans.
St. Louis may attempt to get Suzuki’s line away from the Cirelli unit in this matchup to try and allow them a greater opportunity to make an offensive impact. While Montreal’s superstars have been productive on the power play, better play at even strength will likely be needed at some point if it is to find its way through this series.
Based on the two-week timeline for “re-evaluation,” today was expected to be the day an update on the status of Noah Dobson was revealed, but that has not yet been the case thus far, and Dobson did not skate at yesterday’s practice.
Dobes holds a -1.1 GSAx rating and .895 save percentage thus far in the series. Goals saved above expected data can be fairly meaningless in a small sample, and this instance would seemingly be a good example of that point, as I’d be surprised if many observers of the series would agree with his poor rating.
Dobes has been rock-solid thus far after a fantastic finish to the regular season, and the Canadiens are right to seemingly have full confidence in the young netminder.
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