In this article, we’ll outline our best Oilers vs. Ducks prediction, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
Game 3 of what has been a chaotic series between the Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks will take place Friday at the Honda Center. This series was expected to be the most high-event matchup of Round 1, and that narrative has come to fruition thus far with the first two games featuring 17 combined goals.
After suffering a 6-4 loss in Game 2, the Oilers are now priced at -190 to win the series after being priced at -450 prior to the loss. The market is seemingly buying into the idea that the Oilers may have legitimate cause for concern, as was the case early on in each of the previous first rounds.
Ducks vs. Oilers prediction
Oilers Moneyline -130 (Play to -140)
Oilers moneyline
The Oilers were second best in Game 2, and have had some shaky moments defensively in this series versus a highly skilled and young Ducks side. But it still seems to be a disparity between how bad the Oilers have actually been, versus how closely this game is currently priced.
Yes, Edmonton has not necessarily looked like a full-fledged Stanley Cup contender in this series. The many Oilers naysayers have plenty of ammunition currently. For as uneven as their performances have been though, the Oilers still have generated 15 more shots on goal, one more scoring chance, and have spent more time playing in the offensive zone.
Though the Oilers’ level has clearly been a disappointment relative to how a Cup contender should be capable of dominating the Ducks, it does seem as though the Oilers’ concerns are being overstated based on the fact that they were supposed to dominate this series.
With their current core, Edmonton has proven capable of elevating its level of play in the later stages of each series, with the only notable outlier to that fact being last year’s Stanley Cup Final.
The arguments as to why the Oilers have more to give in this series are clear-cut, as both Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard have been quite poor thus far. Both have historically been excellent in the postseason and finished the regular season in incredible form, so it seems pretty logical to expect both will elevate their level of play as this series wears along.
With the same roster core, the Oilers have played to a record of 14-11-0 on the road over the last three postseasons and hold a +10.6% ROI in those matchups. The heavy line movement between Games 2 and 3 suggests the Oilers no longer holding home-ice advantage is significant, but that change seems overvalued based on recent history.
The consensus belief in the hockey world currently is that the Oilers are deeply flawed, but a price of -130 for them to win this game seems to be an overreaction to Games 1 and 2.
Oilers vs. Ducks Odds
| Oilers moneyline odds | -130 |
| Ducks moneyline odds | +110 |
| Puck Line odds | Oilers -1.5 (+165), Ducks +1.5 (-200) |
| Series odds | Oilers (-190), Ducks (+160) |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-150), Under 6.5 (+125) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Edmonton Oilers
Following the Olympic break, the Oilers ranked 11th in the NHL in xGA/60, and clearly elevated their game defensively with the playoffs looming, which has been a common narrative in the final third of the last three regular seasons. The additions of Connor Murphy and Jason Dickinson shored up the team defensively at even strength, as well as on the penalty kill.
While the Ducks offer plenty of offensive upside, the Oilers’ defensive play in this series has still clearly been quite disappointing. Not having Dickinson in the lineup for Game 2 certainly hurt, but you simply can not pin the amount of defensive miscues Edmonton displayed that in the game on the loss of one player.
Cleaning things up defensively will undoubtedly be the primary focus for the Oilers entering Game 3. Connor Ingram has not been dominant, but he’s been much sharper than the statistics suggest, and he’s clearly suffered playing behind a side that simply has not looked organized defensively.
After the first two games of the Oilers’ first-round series versus the Kings last season, we heard all of the same narratives getting constant coverage from mainstream media, as Edmonton allowed 12 goals in the first two games of the series. It then stabilized and allowed 3.00 goals per game the rest of the way to ultimately take the series in six games.
While every game is much more critical this time of year, it’s still just a two-game sample size in which Edmonton has looked off, and it has proven capable of handling this type of adversity over the previous two postseasons.
From an offensive perspective the Oilers’ output has been perfectly fine, which has to be taken as a positive considering McDavid has played two of the worst games of his postseason career.
Edmonton’s power play has also yet to break through, but that’s another concern that seems to be overvalued in a small sample size. The same five-man unit has been historically dominant over the last two postseasons, and should be expected to offer some answers in Game 3 versus a Ducks penalty kill which was a large flaw throughout the regular season.
The narrative that playing in back-to-back Cup Finals, Four Nations, and the Olympic games has left the game’s best player highly fatigued—we’re not willing to buy into that after two games, and we believe that McDavid will be able to offer a much greater impact the rest of the way.
Betting Anaheim Ducks
Head coach Joel Quenneville has to be extremely pleased to return home with a series split. And while winning one game on the road is a positive result, the Ducks will likely be particularly pleased to have legitimately earned that win, and given themselves a legitimate chance to win both games.
The Ducks continue to play the same style as we saw in the regular season, leaning on a wide-open, up-tempo style of play to get the most out of their talented young core. It’s made for highly exciting games thus far, and exposed concerns from the Oilers both defensively and in goal.
Anaheim allowed 3.97 xGA/60 across 26 games following the Olympic break, and while defensively it still looks to be the same team, they have generated a ton of offence versus an Oilers side that has generally looked out of sync to this point.
While based simply on chances for and against, the Ducks are hanging in respectably at even strength in this series, they have still been outscored 8-4 in even-strength play. Puck management and in-zone coverage have been an issue for the Ducks in the defensive zone all season, and though it feels like every observer is quick to pounce on the Oilers for similar miscues, they are arguably still making less mistakes at even strength than their opponent.
The Ducks have absolutely dominated the special teams battle in this series, but if the Oilers can start to push back in that regard, Anaheim’s overall process could still prove to be quite a concern.
While he’s not been brilliant, Lukas Dostal has outperformed Connor Ingram thus far, and that is one narrative that could certainly hold true based on large samples of each netminder’s play.
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