In this article, we’ll outline our best Avalanche vs. Wild prediction for Game 4, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
The Wild desperately needed a win in Game 3, and came through with a physical, well-rounded performance in which they seemed to have a little more jump than the high-powered Avalanche all night long. Kirill Kaprizov was the best forward from either side, while Jesper Wallstedt was able to bounce back with an excellent performance in goal after being shelled in Game 1 of the series.
While there were a number of positives to take out of Game 3 for the Wild, earning the same result Monday certainly won’t be easy, as the Avalanche feel very aware of the need to bring a better performance and are confident in their ability to do so.
The Wild closed as slight underdogs at +110 in Game 3, but are now priced at +120 to win Game 4 in a spot where sharper money seems to be expecting a response from the Avalanche.
Avalanche vs Wild prediction
Game Total Under 6.5 Goals -120 (Play to -125)
Under 6.5 goals
We may have been a little fortunate to get our pick on the under home in Game 3, as at best, it was a bet that could have gone either way. There were five goals through two periods, and Wallstedt stopping 35 of 36 shots was huge for us.
While Game 3 could have ended up with a higher scoreline, there does still seem to be a pretty strong case towards going back to the well with the same pick in Game 4.
There were only 11 high-danger scoring chances at even strength in Game 3, and only two goals in five-on-five play. Both teams generated a lot of chances on the power play, but the Wild did play a much cleaner game defensively at even strength, which was the key narrative we were hoping to see to help our bet on the under get home.
While Minnesota did still spend a fair bit of time playing in the defensive zone and allowed a lot of shots, it did a much better job of limiting odd-man rushes and made things more difficult for Colorado’s elite offensive stars. Building a 3-0 lead likely will not be nearly as easy in Monday’s matchup, but head coach John Hynes’s side is seemingly aware of the game plan needed to hang around in this series after two surprisingly poor defensive performances in Games 1 and 2.
It seems likely that this series between two legitimate Stanley Cup contenders will continue to trend towards lower-scoring, tighter-checking play moving forward. Both teams do have a ton of elite offensive talent which is obviously a concern, but both were also tremendously defensively in the regular season, while Scott Wedgewood and Wallstedt have generally made all the saves they were supposed to this postseason.
Avalanche vs. Wild Odds
| Avalanche moneyline odds | -140 |
| Wild moneyline odds | +120 |
| Puck Line odds | Avalanche -1.5 (+185), Wild +1.5 (-225) |
| Series odds | Avalanche (-450), Wild (+350) |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (+100), Under 6.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Colorado Avalanche
Dating back to the 2015 postseason, teams looking to avoid falling into a 3-0 hole have played to a record of 55-46 in Game 3 and hold a +6% ROI. Historical trends suggest Colorado was playing in a spot where it is difficult to match the urgency of the opponent, and that did seem to be a fair take regarding how Game 3 played out.
Head coach Jared Bednar noted postgame that the Wild looked like the more determined side, which seemed to be a fair take on how the game went. It doesn’t feel like the result of the game has brought along legitimate panic to the Avs, but more so an awareness of the need to elevate their play in Game 4.
In Game 3, the Avalanche generated only six high-danger scoring chances at even strength. Wallstedt was very sharp overall, but Colorado did have a much more difficult time creating plays through the seams and odd-man rushes in Game 3. While it was natural given the multi-goal deficit for Colorado to make an offensive push, Minnesota did a good job of preventing full-fledged breakdowns while not entirely going into a defensive shell.
The Avalanche only allowed 1.82 expected goals against at even strength but were carved up by the Wild’s strong power-play unit, which tallied two key goals in the contest. Both teams had plenty of time to work with the man advantage in Game 3, and the Avs will likely be keen to stay disciplined here and hope the reffing starts to loosen up a little bit.
Scott Wedgewood was pulled midway through the second period in Game 3, a decision that Bednar likely made in part as a method to try and wake his team up while resting his top option, as opposed to hindering entirely upon Wedgewood’s performance.
MacKenzie Blackwood was in the starter’s goal at Monday’s morning skate, which is pretty surprising. Wedgewood holds a .911 save percentage and +1.5 GSAx this postseason, and though Blackwood had a great season in his own right, sticking with Wedgewood after one poor performance would have felt like a slightly less panicked approach.
Betting Minnesota Wild
There were a ton of positives for the Wild to take out of Game 3, and it was altogether quite a well-rounded performance. Kaprizov had a spectacular performance after a relatively modest string of games, Wallstedt was solid in goal, and the Wild’s defensive details were much sharper than they were in Games 1 and 2.
Though the Wild have some truly elite offensive stars and defenders capable of generating high-quality scoring chances, their physical, well-organized defensive play has to be the backbone towards upsetting a stacked Avalanche roster in this series.
Wallstedt soaked up eight goals in Game 1 before serving as the backup in Game 2. Some observers were questioning if the Avalanche had found some meaningful weaknesses in Wallstedt’s game, but those narratives seemed to be a reach as Colorado simply generated a ton of chances that were always likely to be finished at a high rate.
Wallstedt stopped 35 of 36 shots on goal in Game 3, and now holds a +3.4 GSAx rating and .913 save percentage, and if anything those marks undersell his overall level of play, given that they are tanked by one outlier performance. The team should rightfully have a ton of confidence in Wallstedt’s ability to keep them in any game, and save all pressure and/or looks from the perimeter.
It seems more realistic for the Wild to find success in this series if they can force the games to be more structured, tight-checking affairs, and at even strength, that was the case in Game 3. In the second half of the regular season, Minnesota ranked sixth in xGA/60, and played more so to its identity in Game 3, which was a big talking point from the team’s leadership group and coaching staff following the game.
It has been confirmed that both Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin will remain sidelined in Game 4. Ek is arguably the team’s best centre, while Brodin remains one of the game’s best shutdown defenders.
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