In this article, we’ll outline our best Carolina Hurricanes vs. Philadelphia Flyers prediction for Game 3, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
After being entirely dominated in the series opener, the Flyers responded with a much better showing in Game 2, but ultimately could not secure the win after missing several quality scoring chances in overtime. With a perfect 6-0 mark this postseason, the Hurricanes are now priced at -200 to win the Eastern Conference.
Hurricanes vs Flyers Game 3 Best Bet
Philadelphia Flyers Moneyline +140 (Play to +130)
Flyers moneyline
Losing a game that was there for the taking has to feel extremely frustrating for the Flyers, who realistically need everything to break just right in order to have a chance to steal this series. After earning a 2-0 lead, Philadelphia went into a bit of a shell and could not stave off a strong push from the Hurricanes, who eventually tied it up mid-way through the third.
Once the game state was back to neutral though, the Flyers got back to their game and carried the majority of the play throughout the overtime period. They wasted some excellent scoring chances included a clear-cut breakaway from Travis Konecny, and had 15 total shots in overtime.
We argued that Carolina deserved to be the Eastern Conference favourite entering the postseason, and that has proven to be one of the good takes thus far. While its overall process has been convincing, excluding empty-netters the Hurricanes have played four one-goal games and only one game wasn’t competitive.
The Hurricanes hold a 55.12% expected goal share at even strength. That’s a highly impressive mark this time of year, but it also shows how closely contested the average game is, and even for as dominant as Carolina has been on numerous occasions it has still been just one unfinished chance from the opponent away from losing.
This is essentially a do-or-die spot for Philadelphia, and my expectation is that a very a desperate Flyers side will be able to make this game into somewhat of a coin-flip by limiting the Hurricanes to mainly lower quality scoring chances. While Philadelphia’s game is not without weaknesses, it has defended the rush exceptionally well dating back to the Olympic break, and proven capable of limiting opponents mainly to medium-danger shots that Dan Vladar has handled exceptionally well.
The Flyers are in a strong spot historically, as since the 2009 postseason teams that are down 2-0 in the series hold a record of 54-45 in Game 3 and have yielded a 6% ROI.
By no means are we expecting the Flyers to be outright dominant Thursday, but +140 appears to be a long enough price to take a stab on a strong defensive side finding a way to scrape out a result on home ice.
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Odds
| Hurricanes moneyline odds | -165 |
| Flyers moneyline odds | +140 |
| Puck Line odds | Hurricanes -1.5 (+160), Flyers +1.5 (-190) |
| Series odds | Hurricanes (-2000), Flyers (+1000) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (+120), Under 5.5 (-140) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes have allowed a miniscule total of just 1.17 goals against per game this postseason, and have fared exceptionally well in tight-checking, low-event games to this point. After goaltending was viewed as a weakness entering the playoffs, Frederik Andersen has played to an absurd +10.1 GSAx rating and .958 save percentage in eight appearances, which are by a wide margin the best marks of any goaltender this postseason.
As we touched on several times entering the playoffs, history has proven that regular season results are less of an indicator towards how a goaltender will perform in the postseason than would be expected. Andersen has been an excellent case in point thus far, but in all likelihood his save percentage will prove entirely unsustainable.
Andersen’s brilliance and the Hurricanes’ excellent defensive play has allowed them to find plenty of success despite the fact that Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis, and Nikolaj Ehlers have combined for just 11 points.
The Hurricanes have generated 4.56 xGF/60 however, which is the best mark of any team this postseason, and those numbers have come versus a pair of strong defensive sides. That does suggest some positive regression is on the horizon, but during the Rod Brind’Amour era it has been a consistent trend that the Hurricanes have shot well below what was expected analytically during the playoffs.
Based on Thursday’s morning skate, Brind’Amour will go back to the top line of Jarvis, Aho, and Svechikov, after pivoting to a unit of Jarvis, Ehlers, and Jordan Staal late in Game 2. The unit has played to an expected goal share of just 34.8% this postseason, and been arguably the only legitimate concern for Carolina.
Alexander Nikishin appears to be in line to return to the lineup after suffering a concussion in Game 4 versus Ottawa. Nikishin had a brilliant series in Round 1, playing alongside Shayne Gostisbehere on a notably strong third unit that allowed only 2.2 xGA/60.
Betting Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers exhibited more of the strengths which made them so successful down the stretch in Game 2, and will need to build on that performance in this critical spot on home ice. They did a reasonable job of limiting true grade-A scoring chances and allowing Vladar to be set and square for most of the shots he faced, though as will likely always be the case in this matchup, still owned slightly less of the overall run of play.
Following the Olympic break the Flyers allowed the fewest goals against off the rush and the fewest scoring chances off the rush. Those were strengths that proved particularly critical early on versus the Pittsburgh Penguins, and are strengths the team needs to lean on to hang around with a Hurricanes side that can struggle to finish medium danger scoring chances.
Vladar has not allowed more than three goals in any of his eight starts this postseason, and holds a +8.2 GSAx rating and .929 save percentage. If the Flyers limit shots which force east-west movement from Vladar, he offers them a chance to hang around in any matchup.
Philadelphia’s offensive core will likely look a little different in Thursday’s matchup. Noah Cates will be sidelined with a lower-body injury, and Trevor Zegras will reportedly move back to centre. Zegras did have some success playing the middle this year, so the move would be natural with Cates no longer available.
With Owen Tippett sidelined, this becomes a huge spot for Matvei Michkov to step up and prove his worth. Michkov’s usage has been a controversial subject all season long for the Flyers, and while he does hold high offensive upside, he has struggled to consistently prove worthy of a greater role.
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