In this article, we’ll outline our best Avalanche vs. Wild prediction for Game 3, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
Saturday’s matchup is close to do-or-die for the Minnesota Wild, as winning four straight versus the Stanley Cup favourite Colorado Avalanche feels next to impossible. Colorado took advantage of a shorthanded Wild lineup in Games 1 and 2 on home ice, winning both games by a combined margin of 14-8.
Avalanche vs Wild prediction
Game Total Under 6.5 Goals -125 (Play to -130)
Under 6.5 goals
After an absolute barnburner in the series opener, both teams cleaned things up defensively in Game 2, which ultimately went over the total thanks to an empty-netter with just five seconds left to play. It seems logical to expect high-danger scoring chances to become more and more difficult to generate as this series wears on, and Game 3 seems to be a good spot to back the under with the total still sitting up at 6.5.
For the majority of the regular season, the Avalanche were one of the best defensive teams in the league. They struggled a little bit in that regard in the dog days of the year when the games were relatively meaningless to the team but allowed next to nothing versus the Kings in Round 1, and protected their lead much more effectively in Game 2.
Though the losses of Jonas Brodin and Joel Eriksson Ek greatly hurt the Wild’s defensive upside, they still cannot expect to find any success in this series playing a more high-event style and need to try to make the remaining games into more of a slog.
With the series hanging in the balance Saturday, I’m counting on the Wild to author an inspired defensive performance and give themselves a more realistic chance of earning a win as a result.
Jesper Wallstedt will likely get the start after serving as backup in Game 2. Prior to Game 1, Wallstedt had been exceptional this postseason but soaked up eight goals against on a night where his team was downright horrific defensively. Based on Wallstedt’s regular season, his performance versus the Stars was no fluke, and it still seems fair to have faith that if his team limits the amount of full-fledged breakdowns, he will make all the saves he is supposed to in this matchup.
Avalanche vs. Wild Odds
| Avalanche moneyline odds | -130 |
| Wild moneyline odds | +110 |
| Puck Line odds | Avalanche +1.5 (+195), Wild -1.5 (-240) |
| Series odds | Avalanche (-1000), Wild (+650) |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (+105), Under 6.5 (-125) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche were the best even-strength team in the NHL throughout the regular season, and their only clear weakness was their surprisingly poor power play. They are capable of playing games at a pace that is hard to match but, as we saw in Round 1 versus the Kings, can also find success in low-event, tight-checking matchups.
The Avalanche hold a 52.36% expected goal share and have generated 3.09 xGF/60 in this series. They have generated a lot of odd-man rushes and shots deep in the slot, which has helped them achieve a sky-high 16.23% shooting percentage.
Colorado’s most clear-cut advantage over the Wild on paper is its excellent depth down the middle, with perennial Hart candidate Nathan MacKinnon centering line one, Selke nominee and 33 goal-scorer Brock Nelson centering line two, and Nazem Kadri centering the third unit.
Two leading game scripts have played a role in keeping the overall scoring chances in this series relatively even, but it certainly has felt as though the Avalanche have more or less been in control and are worthy of a 2-0 lead.
Scott Wedgewood has played to a +3.2 GSAx rating and a .923 save percentage across six games this postseason after an excellent regular season. Colorado likely will not need Wedgewood to steal many games to win it all this season, but he has provided an excellent backbone for a very well-rounded side.
Betting Minnesota Wild
Wallstedt held a .970 save percentage in Round 1 at even strength, which is a massive reason the Wild outscored the Stars so drastically at even strength. While neither Wallstedt or Filip Gustavsson have found success in this series, head coach John Hynes has to be highly disappointed with how his team has defended and can’t pin the results on goaltending.
In the regular season, Minnesota allowed only 2.65 xGA/60 in even-strength play and only 2.41 xGA/60 in 24 games following the Olympic break. Even considering how strong Colorado’s offensive attack is, the Wild’s defensive shortcomings in Games 1 and 2 were surprising, and the Kings proved that it is an attainable goal to limit Colorado’s attack more effectively, though in doing so Los Angeles generated very few meaningful chances.
At this point, it seems logical for Hynes to concede that attempting to win with the type of style we saw in Games 1 and 2 versus Colorado is not overly feasible. The Wild need to do a better job of ensuring F3 stays high on all sequences in the offensive zone, and preventing odd-man attacks going the other way, while perhaps “punting” a few more pucks out of the defensive zone and accepting a little bit less possession as a result would be logical.
While structurally the Wild have not been sharp in this series, the loss of Brodin has also certainly hurt their defensive upside. He is the best shutdown defender on the roster, something easy to forget given that the team holds three other tremendous defenders even with Brodin unfit to play.
Ek is listed as day-to-day and may return to the lineup for this matchup. While Ek is not an offensive superstar, he is the Wild’s best centre based on his ability to fare relatively well in head-to-head matchups versus opposing top lines.
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