After dropping Game 4 on home ice, the Montreal Canadiens will officially need to steal at least one more game on the road in Tampa Bay in order to upset the Lightning in Round 1. It’s been a fantastic back-and-forth series thus far in which there has been just one two-goal lead to this point, making it difficult to nail down a Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction for Game 5.
As a neutral observer, this has been the most exciting series on a game-by-game basis. It’s been great to us from a betting perspective as well, as our two articles on the series both hit, backing Games 2 and 3 to require overtime at +320 and +300.
We will pivot away from the overtime look in our Game 5 guide, though, but it is a play that does seem likely to remain in play at a long price of +310.
Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction
Canadiens Moneyline +145 (Play to +140)
Canadiens to win
Our take entering the series was that the Canadiens’ chances were underrated by oddsmakers, and to this point that has proven accurate. While there’s been plenty of debate regarding the reffing in this series, a 2-2 scoreline ultimately seems fair, and considering the prices surrounding Game 5, that’s more conducive to an argument in favour of the Canadiens as heavy underdogs.
At even strength, the Canadiens hold a 52.4% expected goal share in the series, and they played to an expected goal share of 54.08% in Games 1 and 2 on the road. Tampa Bay made an excellent push to close a two-goal deficit in Game 4, but in general, it has not looked like a side that continues to be priced as if it is head and shoulders above the Canadiens.
As we have discussed in several recent articles, home-ice advantage continues to appear highly overrated in the betting markets for what has become a huge sample of play. Montreal closed as a +100 underdog in what was a closely contested Game 4, and a price of +145 suggests plenty of home-ice advantage is being baked into the number.
Road teams are 317-328 dating back to the 2015-16 postseason (excluding COVID years) and hold a +6.9% ROI. When you consider that higher seeds play more home games, that mark essentially suggests that home-ice advantage becomes non-existent come the postseason, as road teams have won 49.18% of games across a massive sample.
Considering that trend and the way that the Canadiens have hung around in every game of the series, a price of +145 looks to be a long enough number to back the scrappy Habs’ stealing another one on the road in Game 5.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Odds
| Canadiens moneyline odds | +145 |
| Lightning moneyline odds | -170 |
| Puck Line odds | Canadiens +1.5 (-185), Lightning -1.5 (+155) |
| Series odds | Canadiens (+150), Lightning (-180) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Montreal Canadiens
While the Canadiens blew a major opportunity to grab a 3-1 stranglehold on the series in Game 4, head coach Martin St. Louis’ side has to be happy with how they have hung tough with the Lightning in this series.
Montreal has allowed only 1.96 xGA/60 at even strength versus a high-powered Lightning side thus far, which is a huge improvement relative to its defensive play last postseason and even the second half of this season. The Canadiens have managed pucks relatively well in key areas of the ice to limit chances off of turnovers and have consistently gotten strong support from F3.
Jakub Dobes has been solid in goal with a +0.1 GSAx rating in the series, but the team has generally allowed a very livable workload, especially considering how the Lightning were expected to outplay them at five-on-five entering the series.
Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki have struggled to create anything meaningful at even strength, but that is a more livable concern given the way that Montreal has fared reasonably well against Nikita Kucherov’s line in five-on-five play, and that Tampa Bay’s bottom-six has been outplayed somewhat significantly.
Noah Dobson will remain sidelined in this matchup, while St. Louis confirmed that Juraj Slafkovsky will play in this game after taking a heavy hit in Game 4.
Betting Tampa Bay Lightning
Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Jake Guentzel have combined for 11 points at even strength, while Montreal’s top four forwards have combined for nothing. While that cherry-picked stat might suggest the Lightning are dominating at even strength, that’s really not been the case, as the Lightning have been outshot and outchanced at even strength overall.
Head coach Jon Cooper will likely look to lean very heavily upon his top two offensive units in Wednesday’s matchup, as the slight disparity in even strength play revolves largely around how badly Montreal’s depth skaters have outperformed Tampa Bay’s to this point.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has played to a +0.8 GSAx and .882 save percentage in the series. By no means has Vasilevskiy been poor, but he’s played at a comparable level of his counterpart to this point, which is another reason the Canadiens have been able to make this into a tougher series than was expected.
Charle-Edouard D’Astous is considered to be a game-time decision for this matchup. D’Astous has had a quietly excellent season, and as both of Tampa Bay’s bottom pairings have struggled, his return would be needle-moving.
You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets, including this Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction, on the Action Network App!