The Edmonton Oilers will return home looking to stave off elimination after blowing a two-goal lead in Game 4. Connor McDavid is currently listed as a game-time decision, yet the Oilers are still priced as -160 favourites in Game 5 versus a hungry young Anaheim Ducks side that has given them a world of problems thus far in the best-of-seven series.
In this article, we will outline our best Ducks vs. Oilers pick for Game 5, as well as relevant betting notes and lineup news from each side.
Ducks vs. Oilers Picks
Kasperi Kapanen Over 1.5 Shots on Goal -120 (Play to -130)
Kapanen over 1.5 SOG
In terms of betting a side in this matchup, our clear lean would be with the Ducks. You could argue that Edmonton is a little unlucky to be down 3-1, but at a bare minimum, it’s the Ducks that have still been the better team in the series, and there seems to be a heavy “must-win” tax baked into the markets on this matchup. So while the Oilers likely won’t go down without a fight, they seem to have a lot of questions to answer for a team expected to win 62% of the time based on current betting odds.
Most of Edmonton’s top stars have struggled, which has been an obvious reason for the team’s underwhelming results in the series. That sentiment works towards our pick on Kapanen to record at least two shots on goal, as he has been one of the few Oilers skaters to offer a consistently strong level of play in this series.
The Ducks allowed 3.51 goals against per game and 3.78 xGA/60 in the regular season, which, by a wide margin, are the worst marks of any playoff team. They have allowed 30.01 shots against per game in the series, and while they deserve credit for their play, particularly offensively, several of Edmonton’s top stars have simply not looked right.
The lone Oilers trio that has truly exposed the Ducks’ sub-par defensive play has been the combination of Leon Draisaitl, Kapanen, and Vasily Podkolzin. The unit has outscored the Ducks f5-0 and holds a 67.6% expected goal share in the series. They have generated 72.67 shot attempts per game, and many of those have come from Kapanen, who has recorded 13 shots from 17 attempts.
If McDavid were to sit, it would still make sense for head coach Kris Knoblauch to stick with the Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen combination given the strong cohesion they have shown, and if anything, he should be more eager to lean on the unit as much as possible.
Ducks vs. Oilers Odds
| Ducks moneyline odds | +135 |
| Oilers moneyline odds | -160 |
| Puck Line odds | Ducks +1.5 (-180), Oilers -1.5 (+150) |
| Series odds | Ducks (-450), Oilers (+350) |
| Game total | Over 7 goals (-105), Under 7 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Anaheim Ducks
While we were high on the Ducks as a potential overachiever entering the season, their shaky finish to the year, shoddy defensive play overall, negative goal differential, and 8-0 record in the shootout made a pretty strong case that they were not actually overly formidable.
To this point, the Ducks have proven us dead wrong in this series. They have a ton of high-end skill, which is something we fully respected, but they appeared to be a perfect candidate for McDavid, Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard to continue their historically excellent playoff production.
It’s felt like the outcome of this series has been equal parts a banged-up Oilers side simply running out of gas, and a young Ducks side that did actually have another gear relative to what we saw throughout the final month of the season.
The Ducks power play has succeeded on 50% of opportunities in the series, while their penalty kill has succeeded on 70% of opportunities. Though Anaheim has been outscored where it counts at even strength, its control of the overall run of play has been strong, and its speed and skill have forced the Oilers into taking a fair share of penalties, and the Ducks have consistently made them pay the price for doing so.
Historically, penalties tend to be called at a lesser rate in games 5-7, which is arguably a concern for the Ducks, as the Oilers have outscored them 12-11 at even strength. However, the Ducks have managed a 51.41% expected goal share at even strength and looked fine in that game state.
Leo Carlsson has arguably been the best forward from either side in the series and has built on his breakout campaign with a great start to the postseason. Cutter Gauthier has also made a positive impact in the series, while Jeffrey Viel and Tim Washe have been surprisingly effective on the fourth line.
Though Lukas Dostal has outperformed his counterparts at the other end of the ice, he has still not been at his best in playing to an .888 save percentage and 3.10 GAA thus far in the series.
Betting Edmonton Oilers
Due to what this Oilers core has accomplished historically in the later stages of series, it seemed reasonable to believe they would be the side to elevate their game, entering a pivotal Game 3 in Anaheim. However, it was the Ducks who clearly took their play up a notch, and the game was perhaps the most accurate depiction that right now this Oilers side is simply not the team it was the previous two postseasons.
While McDavid’s reduced effectiveness due to what is likely a significant lower-body injury has been the main talking point, essentially every key name on the Oilers roster has played at a worse level than we have seen in previous postseasons.
Bouchard has struggled mightily after playing at an incredible level for the majority of the last two postseasons, while Mattias Ekholm has also taken a huge step backwards compared to years past. With those two notably out of form, Edmonton’s defensive depth obviously becomes quite a concern.
At Tuesday’s morning skate, head coach Kris Knoblauch paired Darnell Nurse and Bouchard together on the top unit. For as bad as Bouchard and Ekholm have been in the series, Nurse has still been a far greater concern, and placing him into a more significant role simply does not seem to be a logical answer.
Based on Tuesday’s morning skate, it also appears as though the Oilers will go back to Connor Ingram in goal in Game 5, which is another move that appears debatable. Despite the losing result, Jarry did stop 34 of 38 shots faced in Game 4, and the overtime goal was probably the only one he’d truly like to have back.
You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets on the Action Network App!