Our long shot three-leg parlay for Flyers vs. Penguins prices out at +600 at the time of writing, prior to bet365‘s 50% same game parlay boost available for Tuesday’s NHL card.
The Philadelphia Flyers were priced at +130 to win this series prior to Game 1, but have leaned on rock-solid defensive play and strong goaltending from Dan Vladar to earn a 3-1 series lead over the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Flyers will take their second crack at knocking off the Penguins Monday after suffering a 4-2 loss on home ice Saturday evening.
- Leg 1: First Period Under 1.5 First Period Goals (+100 as a straight bet)
- Leg 2: Kris Letang Under 0.5 Points (-175 as a straight bet)
- Leg 3: Egor Chinakhov Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+135 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Flyers/Penguins SGP
Leg 1: First Period Under 1.5 First Period Goals (+100 as a straight bet)
Out of the first 31 games of the postseason, the first period under has gone 19-12, and first periods have featured a combined average of just 1.22 goals. In this series in particular, the first period under has been a really strong trend, as it has hit in each of the first four matchups, with just two first-period goals total.
This seems to be a strong spot to ride with that trend and to expect a cagey first period overall. The Flyers were among the NHL’s best defensive teams following the Olympic break and have leaned on their excellent ability to suppress rush scoring chances to keep the Penguins at bay in this series.
The Flyers have allowed only 2.86 xGA/60 throughout the series. The game plan from head coach Rick Tocchet’s side has been well-executed, as they have limited the Penguins to a lot of relatively low-end chances with a well-structured defensive game and have rarely been caught out of shape in transition.
While the Flyers have been rock-solid defensively and are deservedly up 3-1, they are not generating a notably high amount of quality chances at the other end of the ice, and did struggle to solve Arturs Silovs in what was a strong series debut in Game 3.
Philadelphia will likely stick with a similar process in Game 5 as road underdogs, in which they force the Penguins to really work for their chances by limiting turnovers in key areas of the ice and continuing to support their defenders effectively with a strong F3.
The Flyers have not cheated the game remotely for offence in this series, and that approach has led to a fairly low-event style of play overall. There have been 5.25 combined goals per game thus far, but much of the scoring has come late in the third when one side or the other looks to open things up in a trailing score line, and that mark is also elevated by three empty-net goals.
Leg 2: Kris Letang Under 0.5 Points (-175 as a straight bet)
Backing Letang to be held pointless correlates well with our first angle, targeting what will hopefully be at a minimum a low-scoring first period. The Flyers have been excellent defensively in this series, and even in what was their worst performance of the series on Saturday, allowed only 1.79 expected goals and six high-danger scoring chances in even strength play.
Letang has been arguably the worst skater from either side in the series, though he did manage to record a critical goal in Game 4. While Letang’s greatest struggles have come on the defensive side of the puck, the Penguins’ second defensive pairing of Samuel Girard and Letang has also not been generating much offensively, and he’s recorded just one point where it counts.
Across 50.5 minutes of play, the Penguins have generated just 2.37 xGA/60 with Letang and Girard on the ice and they have been on the ice for just one actual goal in the series.
Letang is on the Penguins’ second power-play unit, but Erik Karlsson and the first unit have typically stayed out for the majority of each power play in the series.
In a spot where we’re leaning with the Flyers winning a low-scoring game, backing Letang to be held pointless appears to be a strong second leg to go alongside or bet on the first period featuring under 1.5 total goals.
Leg 3: Egor Chinakhov Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+135 as a straight bet)
Our third leg is slightly contradictory to our first two as it does revolve around a Penguins skater creating some offensive chances. While a tight-checking matchup where the Penguins finish with under 25 shots seems likely, that’s been the case all series, and Chinakhov has managed 27 shot attempts while cashing the over twice across four games.
Penguins head coach Dan Muse shook up his lines in the first two games of the series but has gone back to the proven trio of Evgeni Malkin, Tommy Novak, and Chinakhov since and appears to be sticking with that unit. The trio generated 3.66 xGF/60 across 222.7 minutes in the regular season, and was more effective in the Pens’ do-or-die win in Game 4.
Chinakhov ranked second among all Penguins scorers in goals scored in the second half of the season, and is the primary shooter on the team’s strong second line. Though he’s missed the net at an abnormally high rate in the series, his role and style of play has generally looked the same as it did throughout his excellent second half, and a price of +135 offers strong value for him to record three or more shots in this matchup.
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