In this article, Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin breaks down two NHL player prop picks that provide value at online sportsbooks on March 6.
Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson came through for us once again on Thursday, but unfortunately, Logan Cooley had a quiet evening, leaving us with the slightest of losing nights. These guides hold a record of +15.08 units through 134 selections this season, and hopefully, we can get things moving in the right direction on Friday’s exciting trade deadline day slate.
This is an important slate for bettors to pay attention to expected lineups, as obviously a lot of players have been and will be traded and will likely not be in the lineup for their new side. Accurately making assumptions about skaters who will end up with greater roles than usual can be rewarding for prop bettors on slates like today, though I’ve intentionally not made those types of selections for this guide, given that those numbers typically will not hold for long.
Check out my best NHL player prop bets for March 6th below and tail my picks at any of the top NHL betting sites in Canada.
Lucas Raymond/Alex DeBrincat 1+ Point Each Parlay: -110 (bet365, Play to -120)
For the vast majority of this season Detroit Red Wings head coach Todd McLellan has generally played Raymond with Dylan Larkin on the top line and kept DeBrincat with Patrick Kane on the second line. However, over the last two games, McLellan has shaken it up, mainly using DeBrincat and Raymond together on the top line alongside Michael Rasmussen and Larkin, and Kane together on the second unit.
If the units stay as they have been, the Raymond/DeBrincat stack looks to provide great value at -110. So while I know it is a little irritating for readers to write this up with this asterisk, it is a pick I wanted to include but not that it is worth confirming the lines will stay the same at Friday’s morning skate, which is yet to be completed at the time of writing.
While Larkin rightfully wears the “C” in Detroit and is arguably still the team’s most important forward, Raymond is the team’s most best forward from strictly an offensive perspective, and DeBrincat is arguably still better than Larkin in that regard. That’s not necessarily a bold take, given that Raymond has put up 65 points in 60 games this season, while DeBrincat leads the team with 32 goals and has 62 points in 62 games.
Over the last two games, Raymond and DeBrincat have combined for seven points. On every goal that Raymond has recorded a point on, DeBrincat has also recorded a point. With the two now on the same unit at even strength and on the same power play unit, this stack is fully correlated, and I think it’s not unrealistic to imagine the two will be slightly more productive while playing together than they were on their former units.
The Florida Panthers have seemingly waived the white flag on this season and suddenly appear to be a better-than-average matchup for opposing offensive stars to produce, particularly as they will be playing the second leg of a traveling back-to-back in this spot. Over the last 15 games, the Panthers are just 5-10-0 and have allowed 3.53 goals against per game.
Assuming Raymond and DeBrincat remain together at even strength, a price of -110 looks quite appealing for this stack of two point-per-game players, who are being offered a favourable matchup on home ice Friday.
Connor Bedard Anytime Goalscorer: +145 (bet365, Play to +135).
It took a little time for Bedard’s production to pick back up after returning from an upper-body injury, but his game now appears to be back to where it was before the injury. He’s looked particularly sharp coming out of the Olympic break, even if a tough schedule has led to some relatively ugly performances from the Chicago Blackhawks as a whole.
Over the last eight games, Bedard has put up five goals and eight points. He should have an excellent chance of building on his strong stretch of production Friday, as he takes on a Vancouver Canucks side that is, by a margin, the worst team in the NHL. Over the last 15 games, the Canucks have allowed 4.20 goals against per game, and their 4.36 xGA/60 rating actually suggests that they have been even worse defensively than that mark suggests.
Bedard’s recent output of scoring chances suggests he is likely to score often enough to make prices in the +145 range profitable for him to score in any matchup, particularly given that he is obviously a better-than-average shooter. Over the last 14 games, Bedard has generated 6.79 individual expected goals and averaged 5.71 shot attempts per game.
The Blackhawks completed a four-game road trip Tuesday, and aside from a matchup against Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets, all of those matchups were significantly more difficult for production than Friday’s will be. Bedard looked fine throughout the road trip, but it seems reasonable to believe his offensive play will really pop in this matchup, as head coach Jeff Blashill should be able to cherry-pick some soft matchups for Bedard thanks to the luxury of having last change versus a very thin Canucks side.