After managing another win on the road in yet another highly compelling matchup, the Montreal Canadiens return home with the opportunity to knock off the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 6, but our Lightning vs. Canadiens prediction for Friday focuses on a game prop.
After backing the Canadiens at +145 in Game 5, our selections for this series move to 4-0 for a net total of +8.56 units. We will look to move to 4-0 by backing the first period to feature under 1.5 total goals at -115, while also outlining the relevant lineup and betting notes from each side.
Prior to the series, Montreal was priced at +200 to knock off a well-rounded Lightning side, and are now priced at -260. Each game of the series has been quite tightly contested, and for only 5:37 combined has either side owned a two-goal lead.
The Canadiens are deserving of a 3-2 lead, but putting away the Lightning certainly won’t be easy, and Friday’s game should be another excellent matchup played in front of arguably the NHL’s liveliest crowd.
Lightning vs Canadiens prediction
Under 1.5 First Period Goals -115 (Play to -120)
Under 1.5 1st period goals
Backing the first period to go under 1.5 goals has been a strong trend this postseason, as it holds a record of 24-17 and games have averaged just 1.29 combined goals. In this series, the first period has featured an average of 1.2 goals, with the under hitting in three of the first five games.
The logic behind this trend is solid, and it’s an angle that becomes more relevant in the later stages of each series. Referees tend to put away the whistles to some extent, while players are less inclined to risk needless penalties to take a physical toll on the opponent.
The Canadiens have allowed only 1.76 xGA/60 at even strength in the series, and even the most pro-Canadiens observers have to be highly impressed and surprised by how well structured their defensive game has been in the series. Montreal is not generating a ton of chances itself at even strength, particularly as Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield have struggled to create much, but it is doing a good job of checking Nikita Kucherov’s line and has allowed next to nothing versus Tampa’s bottom-six.
It seems unlikely that Martin St. Louis’ side will stray away from a game plan that has worked to this point in the series. Montreal has done a good job of managing the puck safely in key areas of the ice, limiting controlled zone entries, and keeping its shape well in the defensive zone.
It seems unlikely that either team will cheat for offence early on in this matchup, and it seems likely that we will see another evenly contested game where neither team looks decisively better early on.
At -115, there looks to be value in backing the first period to feature under 1.5 total goals.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Odds
| Lightning moneyline odds | -115 |
| Canadiens moneyline odds | -105 |
| Puck Line odds | Lightning -1.5 (+225), Canadiens +1.5 (-275) |
| Series odds | Lightning (+210), Canadiens (-260) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-110), Under 5.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Tampa Bay Lightning
Head coach Jon Cooper’s side continues to struggle to create a meaningful output of scoring chances at five-on-five in this series, particularly early on in games before the Canadiens go into a little more of a defensive shell. In Game 5, Tampa Bay generated only six high-danger scoring chances at even strength and only 1.36 expected goals for.
The Lightning hold a 48.99% expected goal share throughout the series, which seemingly aligns accurately with the eye test. By no means have the Lightning been dominated, but they can’t feel hard done by to face a 3-2 deficit by any means.
While the Lightning were not a one-dimensional team throughout the regular season, their offensive attack feels one-dimensional in this series and more akin to what we see out of a side like the Edmonton Oilers. Tampa Bay’s bottom-six is generating very few scoring chances and has not scored just one goal thus far in the series.
Over the last two games, Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov, and Jake Guentzel have all averaged over 22 minutes. Jon Cooper knows that at this point his stars need to take over to win the series, and it’s not an illogical approach, but it is a big ask when the Canadiens have done a relatively good job of making their minutes a grind.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has played to a +0.4 GSAx and .880 save percentage in the series. He’s not been poor by any means, but certainly has not looked like a worthy Vezina Trophy winner either, which has gone a long way to allowing the Canadiens to earn a surprising 3-2 lead in the series.
Betting Tampa Bay Lightning
At times throughout Martin St. Louis’ tenure it has been questioned if he was the right coach to lead the budding young core into true contention. He’s obviously a brilliant motivator and voice that commands a ton of respect, but over much of his tenure the Canadiens have struggled to take meaningful steps forward defensively.
To this point, this series should eliminate those questions entirely, because the defensive structure that his side has displayed versus an elite offensive side has been extremely impressive.
Jakub Dobes has arguably outplayed his counterpart in playing to a .903 save percentage and +0.3 GSAx rating in the series, but Montreal has done an excellent job of keeping his workload manageable.
Tampa Bay’s top-six has proven well-adept at creating shots that force pre-shot movement from opposing goaltenders in recent years, but the Canadiens have done a good job of taking away seam plays and allowing Dobes to mainly face chances in which he is square to the shooter.
While the Canadiens are not generating a ton of high-quality scoring chances themselves, their overall approach has been effective, and it wouldn’t make sense to try and change too much stylistically in order to create more offence. They’ve taken a stance well suited to winning a series in which they were viewed as significant underdogs, and it seems logical for them to try to grind Game 6 into another low event slog.
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