What should be a tremendous opening round of the NHL playoffs will get started Saturday afternoon, when the Senators open up their series versus the Hurricanes. Ottawa is currently priced at +145 to win the series and +1400 to win the Stanley Cup, while the Hurricanes are priced at +475 to win the Cup. The latest Senators vs. Hurricanes Game 1 odds have Carolina as a modest home favourite in the series opener.
Those numbers suggest that online sportsbooks do power-rate both of these teams quite high, and that barring injury, the eventual winner of this series will be heavily favoured in a Round 2 series versus either the Pittsburgh Penguins or Philadelphia Flyers.
In this article, I’ll outline my best bet for the series opener between the Senators and Hurricanes, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
Senators vs. Hurricanes best bet
Jake Sanderson Over 0.5 Points: -105 Play to -110)
Sanderson to record a point
This series will pit arguably the two best defensive teams in the NHL against one another. These teams finished second and fourth in xGA/60 rating this season and ranked one and two in shots against per 60. However, both teams also generate offence exceptionally well, while having concerns in goal.
The earlier portions of the series tend to offer comparable score lines to that of the regular season before totals tend to really dip in the later part of the series. This game features a total of 6, with the Senators priced at +150, and it does seem reasonable to expect enough offence from Ottawa to target one of its most important offensive drivers.
Sanderson was exceptional at both ends of the ice this season, and if the Senators are to make some legitimate noise this postseason, chances are his play amidst what will likely be a massive workload will be a key reason why.
As the Sens found their footing offensively in the second half of the year, Sanderson started to rack up points at a much greater clip. He generated 28 points over his final 30 games played while spending a lot of time alongside the Senators’ elite top line and quarterbacking a power play that really caught its stride down the stretch.
Sanderson finished the year with a +23.3 goals above expected rating and held excellent underlying results, offensively. For those that really watched his play in a key role with the team, it’s far from a surprise to see such strong metrics.
Saturday’s matchup is certainly a more difficult than average spot for Sanderson to continue his excellent production, but I’m not expecting Game 1 to be a complete slog, at least not to the extent that the price for Sanderson to record at one point should be down to -105 based on his recent form.
Senators vs. Hurricanes Odds
| Senators moneyline odds | +125 |
| Hurricanes moneyline odds | -150 |
| Puck Line odds | Senators +1.5 (-205), Hurricanes -1.5 (+170) |
| Series odds | Hurricanes (-170), Senators (+145) |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-115), Under 5.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Ottawa Senators
Head coach Travis Green deserves a ton of credit for the fundamentally strong, well-rounded game that his side demonstrated for the vast majority of the season. Ottawa’s goaltenders combined for a save percentage of .876 this season, while it spent a key period of the year without several stout defenders, including Sanderson and Thomas Chabot.
While the Senators were not quite as dominant during the recent period of play in which they were battling with a skeleton defensive core, it was a time that seemingly helped to illustrate how systematically strong Ottawa’s overall game truly is.
Similar to the Hurricanes, Senators forwards do a great job of backtracking through the middle of the ice, and supporting defenders playing aggressively at the blue line and do a good job of forcing turnovers in threatening areas, which was a major strength of the Florida Panthers during their back-to-back Stanley Cup wins.
The Senators offer four well-balanced offensive units with clearly defined roles, and were rarely forced to mix up the units down the stretch, which is another cause for optimism.
The Senators finished the season ranked third in expected goal share per EvolvingHockey’s model. Based on recent Cup winners, that is a very strong indicator, as the last seven Stanley Cup-winning teams have averaged fifth place based on expected goal share per Evolving Hockey’s model.
Nick Jensen and Tyler Kleven are the only Senators skaters on the IR. Jensen really struggled this season and his inability to play is arguably a blessing, while Kleven’s loss is not ideal, but mitigable with the rest of the defensive core healthy.
Goaltending is a concern for the Senators, but it’s certainly not out of the question that Linus Ullmark could get hot this postseason given that he is still only three years removed from a Vezina Trophy, and the overall volatility of the position. In his final 15 starts of the year, Ullmark played to a .902 save percentage and 2.53 GAA.
Betting Carolina Hurricanes
As we touched on in our Eastern Conference preview, this series seems to be much more of a battle between two contenders than is generally being credited, at least by mainstream NHL media.
Carolina is catching a lot of flak given that teams with a similar core have failed to break through under Rod Brind’Amour. However, two of those supposed failures came in the Eastern Conference Final versus excellent Florida Panthers teams, and it’s quite reasonable to argue that should not necessarily be viewed as a huge knock on the team.
If you review many of the recent Cup winners, many of them are teams with roster cores that failed in previous years despite being viewed as legitimate contenders before finally breaking through.
Aside from what is still a concerning picture in goal, the Hurricanes do appear to be improved this season relative to last. Nikolaj Ehlers has made a positive impact up front, as expected, while young talents such as Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven, and Alexander Nikishin have also controlled play very effectively.
The Hurricanes finished second in expected goal share this season, and led the league in generating 4.00 xGF/60. While many critics will also note that under Brind’Amour the Hurricanes have always held incredible underlying metrics, the same can be said for the Panthers, who actually slightly outperformed Carolina in expected goal share over the previous two seasons.
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