NHL Western Conference Playoff Series Odds & Picks

In this article, we break down the NHL odds and our picks for each of the four Western Conference playoff series and detail strengths and weaknesses for each side.

Western Conference Playoff Odds

Team	Odds to Win Round 1 Series	Odds to Win the Western Conference	Stanley Cup Odds
Colorado Avalanche	-500	+155	+300
Vegas Golden Knights	-185	+500	+1000
Edmonton Oilers	-240	+550	+1200
Dallas Stars	-120	+600	+1200
Minnesota Wild	+100	+700	+1600
Utah Mammoth	+155	+1700	+3500
LA Kings	+375	+2500	+6000
Anaheim Ducks	+195	+1900	+6000

Series prices in brackets courtesy of bet365.

Anaheim Ducks (+195) vs Edmonton Oilers (-240)

For as tumultuous as the Oilers‘ regular season was overall, they ultimately ended up with a slam-dunk opening round matchup versus the Anaheim Ducks. Aside from the fact that Leon Draisaitl may miss the early portion of this series, things really worked out favourably for Connor McDavid and the Oilers as they look to break through after back-to-back losses in the Stanley Cup Final.

The majority of key indicators suggest that the Ducks are the worst team to have qualified for the postseason. Anaheim finished with a -15 goal differential, and could have just as easily missed the postseason entirely if not for a record of 8-0 in the shootout and 8-6 in games settled via three-on-three.

As much as Anaheim’s overall profile is a concern, as teams transition to more of a playoff style down the stretch, its struggles become even more apparent. The Ducks played to a record of 6-6-3 over their final 15 games, and allowed 3.67 goals against per game in that span.

At this point, Joel Quenneville’s side is essentially playing with house money. They are a young, fast team with plenty of offensive upside, and some analysts will argue their ability to play loose and free in this series is a strength. But at no point this year did they demonstrate overly respectable defensive play, and that’s a massive concern entering a matchup versus a high-powered Oilers side.

As was the case in the previous two seasons, the Oilers started to elevate their level of play defensively down the stretch, while Connor Ingram played to a save percentage of .901 in 19 appearances following the Olympic break. Though Ingram is far from the most proven option, Edmonton should only need him to stop a fair share of the shots he is supposed to in order to succeed in this series.

Best Bet for Ducks vs Oilers: Oilers -1.5 Games (-110)

While the Oilers are not without flaws, they still appear to be a much more well-rounded side than the Ducks, who do not have many convincing options to attempt to shutdown Edmonton’s elite offensive talents. Edmonton knows full well the grind of the NHL playoffs and should be well-motivated to get through this favourable matchup without taking the Ducks lightly at any point.

The way Anaheim played down the stretch in a number of key games versus relatively weak opponents can be taken as a large concern. With the Pacific Division there for the taking, Anaheim lost some important games to teams such as the Vancouver Canucks, Toronto Maple Leafs, San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues, and Calgary Flames.

It seems hard to know for a fact the Ducks have another gear relative to what we have seen lately, and if that is the case, Edmonton should find its way through this series quite comfortably.

Minnesota Wild (+100) vs Dallas Stars (-120)

This is arguably the most hotly anticipated Round 1 series, as a pair of teams that finished third and seventh in the overall standings will go head-to-head. You could also argue that if Minnesota was motivated down the stretch, or had Quinn Hughes all season, it would have finished even higher than that.

While the Wild should prove to be a very tough out, the Stars still project to be the better side by some margin. However, the Wild are catching a big break as elite two-way centre Roope Hintz is expected to miss the majority of the postseason, while Miro Heiskanen is listed as day-to-day and likely will not be at 100%.

In the final 41 games of the season, the Wild ranked fourth in expected goal share and played to a record of 22-14-5. While adding Hughes was obviously an excellent move from GM Bill Guerin, the team still lacks an elite centre. Joel Eriksson Ek is tremendous defensively and is capable of being an eraser versus opposing top lines, but based on the vast majority of recent Cup-winning rosters, Ryan Hartman would be a complete outlier skating as a 1C.

Even with Hintz sidelined, the Stars’ roster still looks to be quite impressive, and a 1-2 punch of Wyatt Johnston and Matt Duchene down the middle is nothing to scoff at. They offer the second-best power play in the league and hold a legit number-one defender on each of the top two pairings in Heiskanen and Thomas Harley.

Best Bet for Wild vs Stars: Stars to Win Series 4-3 +450 (Play to +430), Stars to Win 4-2 (+450, Play to +430)

The Wild likely won’t go down easily in this series, which is seemingly being pegged as the most commonly picked series to require at least six games. The Stars were still the better team in most regards this season, and their roster still looks more well-rounded overall, particularly if Hintz is able to play in the later stages of the series.

Dallas finished with a +53 goal differential and eight more points than Minnesota. While it’s not as simple as boiling it down to that, it doesn’t surprise me that the Stars generated offence slightly more effectively where it counts, while suppressing opponents defensively more effectively.

There’s been a lot of talk about the trio of elite talents the Wild hold in Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Quinn Hughes, which is more than fair. The Stars seemingly still have a much deeper core of elite talents, though, mainly due to the fact that Wyatt Johnston and Jason Robertson are seemingly not getting enough credit.

Los Angeles Kings (+375) vs Colorado Avalanche (-500)

The Los Angeles Kings finally avoided playing the Oilers in Round 1, but chances are they will not ultimately enjoy the reward for doing so. Los Angeles is the heaviest underdog of any team in the opening round by a fairly significant margin, which seems entirely well-warranted.

The Kings finished with just 22 regulation wins this season. Arguably their two biggest strengths were dragging games to overtime to guarantee at least a point and competing in the ultra-soft Pacific Division.

Offensively, the Kings did start to find more success after acquiring Artemi Panarin, as expected, but still project as arguably the weakest offensive side to make the postseason. Their underlying results remain fairly solid for a fifth consecutive season, but their ability to create truly threatening chances should prove to be a huge concern versus an extremely well-rounded Avalanche side.

After being the clear-cut best team in the NHL by a wide margin in the first half, Colorado’s play did fall off for a fairly significant timeframe in the dog days of the year. But that lapse doesn’t seem to be worth reading into, as it surely struggled to drum up legitimate urgency for a number of those matchups.

Colorado’s power play presented as its most notable weakness for much of the season, but found much greater success down the stretch after flipping the roles of Martin Necas and Nathan MacKinnon, and reducing low quality shots as a result.

At their best, the Avalanche did an exceptional job defensively, based mainly on their ability to drive possession at the other end of the ice. They hold a clear-cut edge in terms of star talent in this series, which is generally an underrated aspect of deciding the eventual winner of NHL series, obvious as though it may be.

Best Bet for Kings vs Avalanche: Avalanche to Win 4-0 +350 (Play to +330)

Due to the overall volatility of hockey and increasing parity in the league, it is beginning to prove exceptionally hard to sweep a team in the postseason. There’s been just one sweep out of the last two years. General things are not as cut and dry as they seem, and that fact is not lost on me.

However, at a price of +350, this bet will be profitable if the Avalanche are able to sweep the Kings 25% of the time. That seems entirely reasonable, as the Avalanche hold clear-cut edges across the board, particularly given that their power play has seemingly turned the corner of late.

Putting a pair of bets on the Avs to win 4-0 and the Avs to win 4-1 (+245) to ensure a slight profit so long as either result hits could also be an option, but it’s the price of +350 for Colorado to sweep which appears to offer the most notable edge.

Utah Mammoth (+155) vs Vegas Golden Knights (-185)

Head coach John Tortorella was seemingly in a slam-dunk spot to offer a perceived “new coach bump” when he took over the Golden Knights, who were in the midst of an abnormal slump both in terms of shooting percentage and save percentage.

A new voice has seemingly freed the Knights up to play a more confident game, but Tortorella has noted on many occasions he did not intend to make wide systematic changes. Vegas played to a record of 8-1-3 in its final 12 games and held a league-leading 61.17% expected goal share in that span.

The correlation between regular-season goaltending statistics and playoff goaltending form is not as significant as would generally be expected. Carter Hart is a huge question mark in goal, but it’s not out of the question that he could continue to build on his strong finish to the campaign this postseason, and if that is the case, the Knights look quite formidable.

While the Knights may be being slept on as a legitimate contender (though not by oddsmakers), Utah does present as a legitimately solid opponent, and rightfully is power-ratedl better than the Ducks and Kings. Head coach Andre Tourigny’s side was solid defensively this season, and offers a high-quality top line of Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, and Lawson Crouse.

The defensive play of Utah’s second offensive line could be a significant concern in this series, however. While Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley offer legitimate offensive upside, they will need to get by in matchups versus Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner’s lines in this series, which could be a concern.

One of the big storylines in this series will be the level of production that Marner is able to offer. His postseason failures are obviously well-documented, but the Leafs did play an abnormal amount of legitimate Stanley Cup contenders that were strong defensively in Rounds 1 and 2 during his tenure with the team.

That excuse will go out of the window if he fails to produce once again in this series, but could be an argument as to why this year will be different.

Best Bet for Mammoth vs Golden Knights: Pavel Dorofeyev Series Leading Goal Scorer +550 (Play to +525)

Dorofeyev has scored 72 goals over the last two regular seasons, which places him among the league leaders in that span. While this is the chalkiest way to look at this market in the series, his status as the top goal scorer from the side that should suppress offence more effectively is seemingly being underrated.

The methods in which Dorofeyev scores goals on a high quality Knights power play are very hard for opponents to take away, and should hold true in playoff hockey. I’m willing to risk looking like a fool if this take is wrong, but Dorofeyev and Marner should skate in some winnable matchups in this series, and Dorofeyev should be on the end of some quality looks from one of the game’s better playmakers, who should have plenty to prove in this series.

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