The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres will begin what should be an excellent series Wednesday evening, according to the latest Canadiens vs. Sabres odds. Online sportsbooks consider the Atlantic Division-winning Sabres slight series favourites at the time of writing, after they ousted the Boston Bruins in six games in Round 1, a series that was arguably less competitive than the final scoreline suggested.
In what was the best opening-round series, the Canadiens grinded their way past the Tampa Bay Lightning, who were favoured to win the Eastern Conference at the completion of the regular season. While Montreal may have been lucky to win Game 7, in particular, its overall performance throughout the series was quite impressive.
Our picks on the Canadiens vs Lightning series went an incredible 5-0 and profited +8.56 units. We will now outline our favourite series futures bet below based on the latest Canadiens vs. Sabres odds, as well as team breakdowns for each side.
Canadiens vs Sabres prediction
Cole Caufield 2+ Shots on Goal in Each Game of Series +200 (Play to +190)
Caufield 2+ SOG in each game of series
Whether Montreal’s dynamic duo of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield was alongside Juraj Slafkovsky or Josh Anderson, it did not generate much at even strength versus the Lightning in Round 1. It spent a lot of time playing against Tampa Bay’s incredible top line of Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Nikita Kucherov and a fair share of minutes against Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point.
The Sabres allowed 3.48 xGA/60 and 28.44 shots against per 60 in the regular season. While they defended well versus the Bruins in Round 1, the arguments that Boston was heavily overrated offensively entering the postseason were quite strong, and something we bet into.
Caufield averaged just 1.63 shots on goal in Round 1 and failed to record at least two shots in four of the seven games, but this series should be a more favourable time for the 51-goal scorer to generate scoring chances. Caufield also generated 14 shot attempts over the final two games of the series, and started to look more threatening at even strength in matchups which were extremely tight-checking.
So while we understand that this bet is not nearly as simple as it sounds, +200 is a long enough price to buy into the idea that Caufield will be able to create more scoring chances in this series matchup.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Odds
| Canadiens to Win Series odds | -105 |
| Sabres to Win Series odds | -115 |
| Canadiens to Win Stanley Cup Odds | +900 |
| Sabres to Win Stanley Cup Odds | +1100 |
| Series Total Games Odds | Over 5.5 Games -200 / Under 5.5 Games +150 |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Canadiens to win series
Betting Montreal Canadiens
While the Canadiens’ win in Game 7 was far from dominant, they proved a lot in a series versus a full-fledged Stanley Cup contender and were a deserving winner in what was a closely contested series overall. Montreal held an expected goal share of 47.29% at even strength but 2.39 xGA/60 and 24.17 shots against per 60.
Every game of the series was somewhat of a coin flip that could have gone either way, but Montreal only spent 6.1% of the series playing in a trailing scoreline, which likely skewed the overall run of play statistics to some extent.
The experience of finding their way through that type of series should prove beneficial for the young Canadiens moving forward, whether they are able to stretch this run into at least the conference final or not.
Montreal obviously will not have home-ice advantage in this series either, but as we have discussed, a lot home-ice advantage is significantly overrated in the postseason, and the Canadiens offered a strong case in point in Round 1 by going 3-1 in Tampa Bay.
The Canadiens’ strong defensive structure at even strength has to be the most impressive takeaway of the series, especially relative to their weakness in that regard last season and throughout the majority of this campaign. Montreal did a tremendous job of preventing plays through the royal road and allowing Jakub Dobes to be set and square for the majority of the shots he faced.
Dobes was brilliant in Game 7, but that was the only game where it truly asked the young netminder to handle a notably tough workload. And while Tampa Bay carried much more of the overall run of play in Game 7, it did still struggle to entirely break the Canadiens down.
Noah Dobson returned to the Canadiens lineup in Game 7, and while the Lightning fared well against him in his 18:37 of ice time, that was the going rate for all of Montreal’s defenders. He looked to be moving fairly well and was placed into a very tough spot to try and get back up to speed.
Dobson’s addition for this series should still prove to be significant, and Montreal’s defensive depth currently looks quite solid based on the performance of the blue line in Round 1.
Dobes played to a +4.4 GSAx and .923 save percentage versus the Lightning, following an incredible finish to the regular season. Projecting goaltending is very difficult, and the case for both starters ahead of this series feels quite equal.
Betting Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres rightfully earned a soft first-round matchup by winning the Atlantic Division with 109 points, as most meaningful indicators did suggest that the Bruins were the worst team to make the playoffs out East by a fairly significant margin.
While the Bruins were able to stretch the series to six games, it never truly felt as though the Sabres were in danger of losing the series in Round 1. They played to a 59.8% expected goal share, and three of their four wins were entirely convincing, while the Bruins stole Game 5 thanks to an incredible performance from Jeremy Swayman.
The Sabres did seem to be somewhat of an overachiever in the regular season, as they ranked 16th in expected goal share, and held a PDO of 102.91. These teams were separated by only three points in the regular season, and with comparable underlying results down the stretch, it’s not overly surprising that oddsmakers still rate them relatively equally following Round 1.
Defensively, the Sabres do not appear to be quite as formidable as the Lightning were, with their top forwards in particular appearing to be not quite as strong defensively as skaters such as Hagel and Cirelli.
However, Buffalo’s top defensive pairing of Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson is among the league’s best, while Bowen Byram and Owen Power offer a second pairing capable of driving play quite effectively.
The Lightning’s bottom-six offered very little productivity in Round 1 and was generally outplayed, which was a key reason that the Canadiens found their way through the series. While the Sabres do not offer as many truly elite forwards as Tampa Bay did, they offer a very balanced top-nine, including an excellent third line of Josh Doan, Josh Norris, and Zach Benson.
Goaltender Alex Lyon played to a +4.6 GSAx rating and .955 save percentage in five appearances in Round 1, after finishing the regular season with a +12.5 GSAx and .906 save percentage in 36 appearances.
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