In this article, we’ll outline our best Ducks vs. Golden Knights prediction for Game 5, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
The Ducks knotted the series at two with a spirited, albeit somewhat flawed, performance in Game 4. Anaheim was able to carry more of the overall run of play, but Vegas was able to force Anaheim into some notable mistakes, leading to highly dangerous scoring chances.
However you want to cut it, it’s a best-of-three as the NHL playoff series now shifts back to Vegas, with road teams sporting a record of 2-2.
Ducks vs Golden Knights Game 5 Best Bet
Anaheim Ducks Moneyline +135 (Play to +130)
Ducks moneyline
The Golden Knights’ physical and methodical process eventually won out in the later stages of Round 1, and in totality, their performances on the road in Games 3 and 4 did suggest this series could be trending in a similar direction.
With respect to Vegas seemingly elevating its game, it’s still fair to say that this series could easily be 3-1 and that the Ducks have done a surprisingly good job of controlling the overall run of play. Anaheim has played to a 51.94% expected goal share in the series, and allowed only 21.53 shots against per 60.
The young Ducks continue to seem a little shakier in terms of managing the puck down low in the defensive zone than the Knights, but they are doing a great job of limiting Vegas’s overall output of chances on goal.
The Golden Knights have struggled to a record of 8-10-5 with Mark Stone out of the lineup this season, and seen their offensive production dip by over half a goal in games where he is out of the lineup. Many of those games came while the team was not nearly as strong overall as they have been under head coach John Tortorella, but his absence still raises some meaningful concerns.
Another factor to like about the Ducks here is that home-ice advantage is clearly being baked heavily into the prices for Game 5, as the Ducks closed at -120 in Game 4, which was quite evenly contested.
As we have touched on a lot this postseason when betting sides, since the 2016 postseason, road teams are 328-341 and have yielded a +6.2% ROI. And as noted, in this series road teams are 2-2.
Given that this series has been quite evenly contested and that home-ice advantage appears to be overvalued, the Ducks look to be the much more logical side to back given their price tag of +135.
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Odds
| Ducks moneyline odds | +135 |
| Golden Knights moneyline odds | -160 |
| Puck Line odds | Ducks +1.5 (-185), Golden Knights -1.5 (+155) |
| Series odds | Ducks (+135), Golden Knights (-160) |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Anaheim Ducks
Regardless of how the rest of this series pans out, the budding young Ducks’ postseason has to be viewed as a massive success, with plenty of positives to look towards regarding the future outlook of the roster. Foundational skaters Leo Carlsson and Jackson LaCombe have both been tremendous in their first taste of postseason action, while as a whole the team has elevated its game considerably following a poor finish to the regular season.
At times, some of the defensive breakdowns that far too commonly crept into the Ducks’ game this season have been prevalent, but overall Anaheim’s defensive game has been much sharper than expected. They have allowed only 3.14 xGA/60 and 25.61 shots against per 60 and done a good job of driving play into the other end of the ice to help hide shaky defensive zone coverage.
Head coach Joel Quenneville deserves a lot of credit for the way that he has helped bring the young Ducks along this season, after overtaking the mess that was left behind by former head coach Greg Cronin. The Ducks were arguably the most disorganized team in the NHL last season, and have taken massive steps forward this year, particularly considering the way they have rounded things out in the postseason.
The only shame for the Ducks is that Lukas Dostal’s play in goal has fallen off considerably relative to last season, when the Ducks’ goaltending was the only reason they were remotely competitive. Dostal holds a -4.4 GSAx rating and .874 save percentage this postseason, but did have a solid showing in Game 4 despite a fairly poor .857 save percentage.
Radko Gudas is the only noteworthy Ducks skater that will be unavailable in this matchup, and has been sidelined since Game 1 of the Ducks’ opening-round series versus the Edmonton Oilers.
Betting Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights certainly did not lean on Carter Hart too heavily in Round 1, and early on in that series his play appeared to be the greatest reason why Vegas might fall flat this postseason. Hart’s play in the first four games of this series has been quite sharp, which is potentially the main positive surrounding Vegas’s performance, though obviously Mitch Marner’s play has also been a major storyline.
William Karlsson and Tomas Hertl are the two main candidates needed to step up to help alleviate the absence of Stone. Karlsson returned from a lengthy absence in Game 1 of the series, and saw his usage tick up significantly in Games 3 and 4, recording two points while playing a combined total of 39:13.
Hertl finally snapped a lengthy 29-game goalless drought with 1:04 left to play in Game 4, and is slated to centre the third line in Tuesday’s matchup, while he will also remain in Stone’s vacated spot on the top power play. He does still appear to be a strong option to centre any team’s third line, and did hold a +6.3 expected goals above replacement rating in the regular season.
The Knights recalled Braeden Bowman from the AHL ahead of this matchup, and it is unclear if he will draw into the lineup at the time of writing. Bowman offers a higher offensive ceiling than a number of the Knights forwards, but it would not be overly surprising if he got an opportunity to play in the bottom-six Tuesday, potentially in the role held by Brandon Saad in Game 4.
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