In this article, we’ll outline our best Canadiens vs. Sabres prediction for Game 1, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams. We will also touch on an exceptional odds boost bet365 is offering on Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki each to record a point at +200.
Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semi-final between the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres will get underway Wednesday night, and seems likely to be the most exciting and evenly contested of any of the four remaining series. Montreal found its way into this series with a defensively strong, well-rounded performance versus the Lightning, while Buffalo cruised past the Bruins more comfortably than the 4-2 series scoreline suggested.
At the time of writing, the Canadiens are slight underdogs in the series at -105. Both teams offered comparable underlying metrics in the regular season, and finished just three points apart.
Our picks on the Canadiens vs Lightning series went an incredible 5-0 and profited +8.56 units. We will try to keep our spotless record intact Wednesday as we attack another long-shot bet paying out at +170.
Canadiens vs Sabres Game 1 Best Bet
Cole Caufield Over 3.5 Shots on Goal +170 (Play to +160)
Caufield over 3.5 SOG
Our best futures bet for the series came in on Cole Caufield to record at least two shots in every game at +200 (market is still available). Our belief is that Caufield may offer much greater shot volume in this series than he did versus a stingy Lightning side, and Game 1 seems to be a good time to tap into the volatility of a new-look for Caufield by backing him to record four shots on goal at +170.
Montreal’s top line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky/Josh Anderson had a hard time generating anything at even strength in Round 1 versus the Lightning. The trio spent a lot of time playing against Tampa Bay’s defensively excellent top line of Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Nikita Kucherov and a fair share of minutes against Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point.
The Lightning forced a lot of dump-ins, and supported the middle of the ice very well, and did hold far superior defensive metrics than the Sabres in the regular season.
While this series is rightfully priced as a coin-flip, the expectation is that, especially in the early portion of the series, things are much more open than they were in the razor-tight series Montreal just played with the Lightning.
Caufield generated 14 shot attempts over the final two games of Round 1, and also averaged 3.5 shots on goal per game in four matchups versus the Sabres this season, while recording six points where it counts.
The Sabres do offer an elite top defensive pairing of Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson, but they still play a more wide open style overall and do not have an offensive unit sporting two Selke-level forwards as the Lightning did. We also tend to see more power plays in the earlier games of each series, as referees are more free in making calls in games that do not feel as critical, while players are more deadset on setting a physical toll and willing to risk penalties in doing so.
For the majority of the second half of the season bettors would have been thrilled to see Caufield priced at +170 to record four shots on goal, and Game 1 of what may be a much different series stylistically seems to be a good spot to buy low on his shot volume.
Bet365 SuperBoost: Caufield/Suzuki 1 Point Each (Boosted from +100 to +200)
Caufield/Suzuki points parlay boost
Based on what has been written earlier in the article, it’s probably easy to assume we’re on board with playing the SuperBoost bet365 is offering for this matchup, as we should see greater production out of the duo.
Even last round when Caufield and Suzuki struggled to create at even strength, backing the Caufield/Suzuki stick in every game would have been profitable at the boosted price of +200, as it hit in three of seven games. At worst, it seems likely that the Canadiens’ dynamic duo will remain comparably productive in this series, and over the course of the season this play has proven to be extremely correlated.
These SuperBoosts are mainly a promotional tool and therefore hold low limits. While this bet will still lose 50% of the time, this one certainly appears to be worth maxing out so long as you are comfortable with the loss given that it is paying out at +200.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Odds
| Canadiens moneyline odds | +110 |
| Sabres moneyline odds | -130 |
| Puck Line odds | Canadiens +1.5 (-240), Sabres -1.5 (+195) |
| Series odds | Canadiens (-105), Sabres (-115) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-125), Under 5.5 (+105) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Montreal Canadiens
While Game 7 may be the lasting memory in the minds of many neutral observers, the Canadiens were far from lucky to find their way past the Lightning in Round 1. Oddsmakers priced the Lightning as favourites to win the East entering the postseason, and while we did argue that was not correct, Tampa Bay was at worst a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
Head coach Martin St. Louis’ side offered arguably their best seven-game stretch of play defensively of any point of his tenure. The Canadiens consistently felt entirely determined to protect the key areas of the ice, and avoid soft defensive breakdowns, which proved to be an ideal approach for an underdog side to knock off a heavy favourite.
Montreal held an expected goal share of 47.29% at even strength, but also marks of 2.39 xGA/60 and 24.17 shots against per 60. Every game of the series was somewhat of a coin flip that could have gone either way, but Montreal only spent 6.1% of the series playing in a trailing scoreline, which likely skewed the overall run of play statistics to some extent.
The Canadiens’ defensive depth proved surprisingly strong in the series, and now looks even more convincing with Noah Dobson back in the mix. As with most puck-moving defenders, Dobson is known for the odd defensive miscue, but his upside is still quite high, and he could prove to be an X-factor in this series.
While the Canadiens were able to find their way past the Lightning with little productivity from their top forwards at even strength, doing so versus a deep Sabres offensive core may not be overly realistic. As we have discussed, on paper this is a more advantageous series for Caufield, Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Ivan Demidov to produce, while it may be less realistic for Montreal to essentially entirely shut down the Sabres depth scorers.
Jakub Dobes entered the playoffs in the midst of an incredible run of play, and had a rock-solid series overall versus the Lightning, before a brilliant performance in Game 7. Dobes played to a +4.4 GSAx and .923 save percentage in Round 1.
Betting Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo rightfully earned itself a soft opening-round matchup versus the Boston Bruins by winning the hotly contested Atlantic Division title with 109 points. While it did take until Game 6 for Buffalo to find its way through the series, it never truly felt to be in trouble and generally carried play quite effectively.
The Canadiens offer a much deeper offensive attack than the Bruins, who had a distinct lack of offensive talent further down the lineup and only one truly elite forward in David Pastrnak.
The Sabres allowed 3.48 xGA/60 and 28.44 shots against per 60 in the regular season, but did defend more effectively down the stretch and fared well in that regard versus Boston. It’s hard to argue they are as proven defensively as the Lightning, but the overall depth of their attack currently appears to be superior, while they aim to find success with a more open style of play.
While the Sabres do not offer as many truly elite forwards as Tampa Bay did, they offer a very balanced top-nine, including an excellent third line of Josh Doan, Josh Norris, and Zach Benson, while Tage Thompson is still one of the very best pure goal-scorers in the NHL.
The Sabres defensive core does an excellent job of helping power the attack, and transitioning pucks out of the defensive zone effectively. They may not prove capable of forcing dump-ins at the same rate that Tampa Bay did, but they still offer a well-balanced unit headlined by a truly elite top pairing of Dahlin and Samuelsson.
Goaltender Alex Lyon played to a +4.6 GSAx rating and .955 save percentage in five appearances in Round 1, after finishing the regular season with a +12.5 GSAx and .906 save percentage in 36 appearances.
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