In this article, we’ll outline our best Oilers vs. Ducks prediction, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
Edmonton kept its season alive with a solid 4-1 win on home ice and will attempt to force a Game 7 Saturday night with a win Thursday. The Oilers are 0-2 at the Honda Center in the series, but they did prove capable of finding success on the road over the previous two postseasons in playing to a record of 14-11.
While Edmonton’s roster core is experienced in this type of situation, for much of the series the Oilers have not appeared to be the same team as in years past. The talented and young Anaheim Ducks rightfully grabbed a 3-1 series lead by exposing Edmonton defensively and are likely capable of offering a better effort than in Game 5 in this matchup.
Ducks vs. Oilers prediction
Leon Draisaitl To Score +130 (Play to +120)
Draisaitl to score
The stage is set for a fantastic finish to this series. Edmonton’s offensive superstars broke out in a big way in Game 5, but its goaltending and defensive play still remain a concern. Generally Games 6 and 7 tend to feature notably low offensive outputs, but this series appears to be a logical candidate to buck that trend.
Draisaitl has honed a reputation for coming through in this type of spot, and while it’s maybe not been his absolute best series, he’s still racked up three goals and nine points in five games, and now has 37 goals and 91 points over his past 64 playoff games. Blindly backing prices in the +130 range for Draisaitl to score in the postseason is not a bad strategy, and Game 6 seems to be a good time to ride with that trend.
While he may not be skating at 100%, Draisaitl’s ability to find open pockets of space on the back side in the defensive zone continues to be an issue for the Ducks.
Whether Draisaitl remains with Connor McDavid at even strength or head coach Kris Knoblauch throws Draisaitl back with Vasily Podkolzin and Kasperi Kapanen, this play still seems strong. Even a heavily hampered McDavid should be able to help Draisaitl get some good looks, while the Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen combination has consistently hemmed the Ducks in their zone and driven pucks in to the slot effectively.
Edmonton’s power play also had a strong showing in Game 5, which was in part due to sharper performances from Evan Bouchard, McDavid, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Draisaitl’s one-timer from the right circle will always remain the top-ranked look for the number-one unit, and when McDavid and Bouchard are moving the puck efficiently it becomes an extremely tough look for teams to overcommit to.
Draisaitl has generated 0.51 individual expected goals per game in the series, and in general, his back door one-timers are underrated by expected goals models that do not grade pre-shot movement or the talent of the shooter.
In a do-or-die game featuring a total of 7 goals, Draisaitl’s chances of finding the back of the net seem to be underrated at +130, and this seems to be a good spot to keep it simple and back a very proven playoff goal scorer in a big spot.
Oilers vs. Ducks Odds
| Oilers moneyline odds | -130 |
| Ducks moneyline odds | +110 |
| Puck Line odds | Oilers -1.5 (+180), Ducks +1.5 (-220) |
| Series odds | Oilers (+180), Ducks (-220) |
| Game total | Over 7 goals (-105), Under 7 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers once again showed a little too much relent after staking a 3-0 lead in Game 5, a lead they helped garner thanks to by some poor goaltending from Lukas Dostal. No team in the NHL was better at coming from behind than the Ducks this season, while under Knoblauch, Edmonton has consistently become far too passive in attempting to coax early leads home.
While it’s natural and common for teams to employ a passive approach with a lead, it seems particularly foolish to attempt to do so versus Anaheim. The Ducks continue to struggle defensively, both in transition and in terms of in-zone coverage, but taking a tactical approach geared towards nursing leads prevents those concerns from being exposed and allows a talented offensive side to dictate the game.
Knoblauch made an interesting decision in opting to stack Draisaitl and McDavid together in Game 5, and it will be interesting to see if he opts to stick with that combination in Game 6. While the new-look combination did create one even-strength goal, they were outchanced considerably at even strength, and obviously, if you are going to play those two together, the idea is that the line will be entirely dominant.
So despite the result in Game 5, Knoblauch may still be best suited to go back to the Draisaitl, Podkolzin, and Kapanen combination, and hope a hobbled McDavid can find a way to drive his own unit.
Regardless of lineup combinations, whether or not the Oilers’ top stars are able to once again elevate their level of play will be the main story of this game. Whether it be because of injuries or not, prior to Game 5, McDavid, Evan Bouchard, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had all offered underwhelming play in the series.
Bouchard, in particular, offered a significantly better performance in Game 5, and Edmonton will need its top defender to build on that performance Thursday.
Connor Ingram rewarded Knoblauch’s decision to offer him the start in Game 5, making his best start of the series by stopping 29 of 30 shots faced. Ingram has not officially been announced as the starter at the time of writing, but it would be shocking to see him not get the start after his strong performance in Game 5.
Betting Anaheim Ducks
While game script surely influenced the overall numbers, Anaheim did generate an equal amount of opportunities as the Oilers in Game 5, and led 2.76 to 2.31 in expected goal share. It obviously got off to a poor start, but it’s also fair to say that Dostal should have saved two of the three goals he allowed in the first period.
While much has been made of the Oilers’ goaltending concerns, Dostal has had a fairly poor showing in the series and will now tasked with bouncing back after being pulled in Game 5. Dostal holds a -5.4 GSAx rating and .864 save percentage in the series.
If the Oilers can’t pull off the comeback, most of the offseason talk will revolve around Stan Bowman failing to acquire a needle-moving goaltender. But it’s not as though the disparity between the team’s goaltenders is the main reason the Oilers are in a 3-2 hole in this particular instance.
The Ducks hold a 53.19% expected goal share in the series, while their power play has obviously given the Oilers a ton of problems. Underlying numbers are far from everything, but watching the games it’s been surprising to me how effectively Anaheim has carried the overall run of play.
The Ducks’ defensive concerns are still obvious, but they have masked those issues by more consistently playing on the front foot more than the Oilers and creating a ton of quality scoring opportunities at the other end of the ice.
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