Control and matchup texture drive the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds on Tuesday night, as Toronto’s Trey Yesavage makes his season debut at Rogers Centre against a Red Sox lineup that is suddenly producing in the wake of several coaching changes.
At -120 on the moneyline, the Blue Jays are slight favourites thanks to home‑field advantage and Yesavage’s devastating splitter, but Boston’s immediate reward lies in a prop angle on walks rather than the run line, given his control issues and Boston’s deeper‑count hitters.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction
Trey Yesavage over 1.5 walks: -140 @ bet365
Yesavage over 1.5 walks
It’s unrealistic to expect Yesavage to be razor-sharp in his season debut on Tuesday, and it’s very likely he struggles with his control early in this contest.
The right-hander walked two or more batters in six of his nine appearances last season, averaging two free passes per game across 27 2/3 total innings. There were several instances last season when Yesavage couldn’t find the plate with his splitter, leading to multiple walks and many deep counts.
Boston isn’t the most patient team at the plate, averaging 3.41 walks per game (23rd in the majors), but the Red Sox do have a handful of players, like Roman Anthony, Willson Contreras, and Masataka Yoshida, that love to work deep counts and can work walks effectively.
With Yesavage unlikely to pitch deep into this game as he continues to build his stamina, you can bet Boston will collectively take a patient approach at the plate in order to drive his pitch count up early and get to Toronto’s wonky bullpen.
Be sure to shop around and find the most favourable odds on player props at the best MLB betting sites before locking in your bets.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds
| Red Sox moneyline odds | +100 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -120 |
| Run line odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+180), Red Sox +1.5 (-220) |
| Game total | Over 7.5 runs (-115), Under 7.5 (-105) |
| Date/time | April 28, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Betting the Red Sox (12-17 SU, 10-19 ATS, 15-14 o/u)
Despite the recent firings of several members of the coaching staff, the Red Sox have won three straight games to crawl within five games of .500.
The team has struggled to score runs consistently this season, but it has managed to put at least five up on the board in each game of the winning streak, including a 17-run outburst on Saturday against the Baltimore Orioles.
Starting pitcher Ranger Suarez was spectacular for Boston on Monday night, tossing eight shutout innings while holding Toronto to a single hit. As a result, Boston’s bullpen is in terrific shape heading into Tuesday’s contest.
Betting the Blue Jays 12-16 SU, 10-18 ATS, 14-14 o/u)
The Blue Jays appeared to be building some momentum after posting back-to-back wins over the Cleveland Guardians heading into this series with Boston, but they simply ran into a hot pitcher on Monday night that silenced their bats.
Payton Tolle, another southpaw, presents a similar challenge Tuesday for the Blue Jays, who have not hit lefties well to this point with a .644 team OPS (22nd in majors).
The good news is that the Blue Jays could have some reinforcements on the way shortly, with George Springer (toe) a possibility to be activated off the injured list Tuesday along with Yesavage.
Probable starting pitchers
Boston: LHP Payton Tolle (0-0, 1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 16.50 K/9)
Tolle, Boston’s top pitching prospect, made his first appearance of the season last week against the Yankees, throwing six innings of one-run ball while striking out 11 batters.
He throws a 97-mph fastball with a funky delivery and incredible extension from the left side, which can be tricky for opposing batters to pick up on initially. He’ll have the element of surprise working in his favour in this one against Toronto, as only Ernie Clement has a previous at-bat against him.
Tolle made seven appearances for the Red Sox last season, struggling to a 6.06 ERA and 1.59 WHIP across 16 1/3 innings.
Toronto: RHP Trey Yesavage (No record)
Yesavage will make his season debut on Tuesday when Toronto activates him off the injured list for this start.
The young right-hander missed the start of the season due to shoulder inflammation, and he only reached 64 pitches in his last rehab start in the minors, so don’t expect a lengthy outing from him.
Yesavage, who showcases a devastating splitter, was fantastic for the Blue Jays in the postseason last year, recording a 3-1 record with a 3.58 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 39 strikeouts over 27 2/3 innings pitched.
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for the Red Sox:
- P Patrick Sandoval (biceps)
- P Sonny Gray (hamstring)
- 1B Triston Casas (abdomen/knee)
- P Kutter Crawford (elbow)
- P Justin Slaten (oblique)
- P Johan Oviedo (elbow)
- 1B Romy Gonzalez (shoulder)
- P Tanner Houck (elbow)
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- C Alejandro Kirk (thumb)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Shane Bieber (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (ankle)
- OF George Springer (toe)
- OK Nathan Lukes (hamstring)
- P Max Scherzer (forearm)
Weather
Forecasts are calling for cool temperatures with a chance of rain this evening in Toronto, so the retractable dome at Rogers Centre will likely be shut.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays betting trends
- The Red Sox have hit the team total over in 11 of their last 13 road games.
- The Blue Jays have hit the F5 team total under in 10 of their last 13 home games.
- The Red Sox have only hit the F5 moneyline in 16 of their past 51 games.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays player prop trends
- Wilyer Abreu, Carlos Narvaez, and Marcelo Mayer have all hit safely in six straight games. Abreu is -175 to get a hit, Narvaez is -125, and Mayer is -125.
- Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony has drawn a walk in six straight games and in 58% of his games this season. He’s -120 to extend that streak.
- Blue Jays infielder Andres Gimenez has doubled in three straight games and is +475 to do it again.
- Mayer has driven in at least one run in four straight games and is +220 to record an RBI.